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Figure 12: Modeling the actual price change of cereals, 2000–2005 and scenario 2006–2015 (US$/ton) 300 200 US$ ton 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 Rice Wheat Maize Oilseeds Soybean Source: Preliminary results from the IFPRI IMPACT model, provided by Mark W. Rosegrant (IFPRI). In constant prices. 97 Trade & Industry <strong>Monitor</strong> Table 6: Net cereal exports and imports for selected countries (three-year averages 2003–2005) Country 1000 tons Japan -24,986 Mexico -12,576 Egypt -10,767 Nigeria -2,927 Brazil -2,670 China -1,331 Ethiopia -789 Burkina Faso 29 India 3,637 Argentina 20,431 United States 76,653 Source: Data from FAO 2007a. Table 7: Purchases and sales of staple foods by the poor (% of total expenditure of all poor) Staple foods Bolivia 2002 Ethiopia 2000 Bangladesh 2001 Zambia 1998 Purchases by all poor net buyers 11.3 10.2 22.0 10.3 Sales by all poor net sellers 1.4 2.8 4.0 2.3 Source: Adapted from World Bank 2007a. The World Food Situation: new driving forces and required actions
Food Policy 98 Trade & Industry <strong>Monitor</strong> 3. Poverty and the Food and Nutrition Situation Many of those who are the poorest and hungriest today will still be poor and hungry in 2015, the target year of the Millennium Development Goals. IFPRI research has shown that 160 million people live in ultra poverty on less than 50 cents a day (Ahmed et al. 2007). The fact that large numbers of people continue to live in intransigent poverty and hunger in an increasingly wealthy global economy is the major ethical, economic, and public health challenge of our time. The number of undernourished in the developing world actually increased from 823 million in 1990 to 830 million in 2004 (FAO 2006a). In the same period, the share of undernourished declined by only 3 percentage points—from 20 to 17 percent. The share of the ultra poor—those who live on less than US$0.50 a day—decreased more slowly than the share of the poor who live on US$1 a day (Ahmed et al. 2007). In Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, the number of people living on less than US$0.50 a day has actually increased (Ahmed et al. 2007). Clearly, the poorest are being left behind. Behind the global figures on undernourishment, there are also substantial regional differences (Figure 13). In East Asia, the number of food insecure has decreased by more than 18 percent since the early 1990s and the prevalence of undernourishment decreased on average by 2.5 percent per annum, mostly due to economic growth in China. In Sub-Saharan Africa, however, the number of food-insecure people increased by more than 26 percent and the prevalence of undernourishment increased by 0.3 percent per year. South Asia remains the region with the largest number of hungry, accounting for 36 percent of all undernourished in the developing world. Recent data show that in the developing world, one of every four children under the age of five is still underweight and one of every three is stunted. 8 Children living in rural areas are nearly twice as likely to be underweight as children in urban areas (UNICEF 2006). An aggregate view on progress—or lack thereof—is given by IFPRI’s Global Hunger Index (GHI). It evaluates manifestations of hunger beyond dietary energy availability. The GHI is a combined measure of three equally weighted components: (i) the proportion of undernourished as a percentage of the population, (ii) the prevalence of underweight in children under the age of five, and (iii) the under-five mortality rate. The Index ranks countries on a 100-point scale, with higher scores indicating greater hunger. Scores above 10 are considered serious and scores above 30 are considered extremely alarming. From 1990 to 2007, the GHI improved significantly in South and Southeast Asia, but progress was limited in the Middle East and North Africa and in Sub-Saharan Africa (Figure 14). The causes and manifestations of hunger differ substantially between regions. Although Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia currently have virtually the same scores, the prevalence of underweight children is much higher in South Asia, while the proportion of calorie-deficient people and child mortality is much more serious in Sub-Saharan Africa. Figure 13: Prevalence of undernourishment in developing countries, 1992–2004 (% of population) Prevalence of undernourishment 2004 (%) 2004 EAP 227 52 LAC 300 ECA 23 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 SSA 213 MENA 37 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 Annual change in prevalence of undernourishment 1992-2004 (%) Source: Data from FAO 2006a and World Bank 2007b. Note: The size of the bubbles represents millions of undernourished people in 2004. EAP—East Asia and the Pacific, LAC—Latin America and the Caribbean, SA—South Asia, SSA—Sub-Saharan Africa, MENA—Middle East and North Africa, ECA—Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
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TIPS T R A D E & I N D U S T R Y M
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TIPS Executive director: Stephen ha
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trade policy 1 Why OECD countries s
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Table 1: EU and U.S. Examples of Re
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where “NAFTA markup” is the per
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exports toward already high levels
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value added in least developed econ
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trade policy 19 Global Trade Models
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depending on whether or not the dat
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OECD data, Gurgel et al. (2006) sho
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industrial policy 33 Industrial Pol
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will need to be embodied in new wel
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environmental policy 45 Biofuels, a
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