Bangchak Petroleum (BCP TB) - OSK

Results Review, 2 August 2013
Bangchak Petroleum (BCP TB)
Neutral (Maintained)
Energy - Oil & Gas Target Price: THB40.6
Market Cap: USD1,529m Price: THB34.8
มูลคากําไรไตรมาส 2/56 ลดลงแตชวงครึ่งปแรกเปนไปตามเปา
Macro
Risks
Growth
Value
45
40
Bangchak Petroleum (BCP TB)
Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)
163
149
มูลคากําไรสุทธิในรอบไตรมาส 2/56 ลดลง 81% (q-o-q) เปน 407 ลานบาท
เนื่องจากขาดทุนอัตราแลกเปลี่ยนและสตอครวมทั้งคาการกลั่น (GRM) ที่ลดลง
อยางไรก็ตาม กําไรในรอบ 1H56 เติบโตขึ้น 27% (y-o-y) เปน 2.6 พันลานบาทโดย
ไดรับอานิสงสจากคา crude run และมารจิ้นที่ดีขึ้นและสวนแบงจากโครงการพลังงาน
แสงอาทิตย (Solar Power) เรายังคงแนะนํา “ถือ” ที่ราคาเปาหมายเทากับ 40.60
Vol m
35
30
25
20
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Aug-12
Oct-12
Source: Bloomberg
Dec-12
Avg Turnover (THB/USD)
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
135
121
107
93
132m/4.29m
Cons. Upside (%) 11.2
Upside (%) 16.9
52-wk Price low/high (THB) 21.9 - 39.8
Free float (%) 63
Shareholders (%)
PTT Pcl 27.2
Ministry of Finance 10.0
Thai NDVR 5.2
Shariah compliant
Kannika Siamwalla, CFA 66 2862 9744
License No.23517
kannika.si@th.oskgroup.com
กําไรสุทธิไตรมาส 2/56 เทากับ 407 ลานบาท (-81% q-o-q)
โดยยอดขายลดลง 5% (q-o-q) เปน 4.51 หมื่นลานบาทในขณะที่กําไรจากการ
ดําเนินการลดลง 34% (q-o-q) เปน 1.8 พันลานบาท
ธุรกิจโรงกลั่นไดรับผลกระทบ
EBITDA จากธุรกิจโรงกลั่นลดลง 31% (q-o-q) เปน 1.4 พันลานบาทเนื่องจาก
การปดหอแยกกาซและโรงงานไฮโดรเจนเพื่อตรวจซอมแซม ฉุดใหอัตราการผลิต
ในกลุมโรงกลั่นลดลงเล็กนอยเปน 80% จากเดิม 83% และคา GRM ลดลง
เชนเดียวกันราว 29% (q-o-q) เปน 5.68 เหรียญสหรัฐตอบารเรลโดยมีสเปรด
ผลิตภัณฑปรับลดลงเชนกัน ทั้งนี้ BCP บันทึกกําไรจากการประกันความเสี่ยงใน
ไตรมาส 2/56 เทากับ 0.76 เหรียญสหรัฐตอบารเรลในขณะที่ขาดทุนจากสตอคอ
ยูที่ 3.52 เหรียญสหรัฐตอบารเรล โดยคา GRM รวมเทากับ 2.92 เหรียญสหรัฐใน
ไตรมาส 2/56 ลดลงจากไตรมาส 1/56 ที่ 10.12 เหรียญสหรัฐตอบารเรล
ธุรกิจมารเก็ตติ้งยังคงทรงตัว
ในสวนของธุรกิจ Marketing ในไตรมาส 2/56 ไดบันทึกมูลคา EBITDA ฟนตัวราว
5% (q-o-q) เปน 466 ลานบาท โดยยอดขายปรับลดลงเล็กนอยราว 2% เปน
1724 ลิตรเปนไปตามคาดเนื่องจากไตรมาส 2 มีระดับการผลิตที่ต่ําที่สุดจากการมี
วันหยุดประจําปที่คอนขางมาก อยางไรก็ตามคา marketing margins เพิ่มขึ้น
18% เปน 0.59 บาทตอลิตรเนื่องจากการปรับลดลงของราคาน้ํามันดิบในไตรมาส
2/56
ธุรกิจพลังงานแสงอาทิตยสดใส
มูลคา EBITDA รวมสําหรับธุรกิจพลังงานแสงอาทิตยเทากับ 392 ลานบาทเพิ่มขึ้น
จากไตรมาส 1/56 ที่ 218 ลานบาทเนื่องจากการดําเนินการเต็มไตรมาสของ
โรงงานพลังงานแสงอาทิตยทั้งเฟส 1 และ 2
กําไรสุทธิในรอบ 1H56 เทากับ 2.6 พันลานบาท (+27% y-o-y)
BCP ไดรับประโยชนจากคา crude run, GRM, และยอดขาย marketing ที่
เพิ่มขึ้นรวมทั้งสวนแบงรายไดจากธุรกิจพลังงานแสงอาทิตย ซึ่งสัดสวนกําไรใน
รอบ 1H56 คิดเปนสัดสวน 60% ของประมาณการทั้งป 2556 ของเราจึงยังคง
แนะนํา “ถือ”
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Total turnover (THBm) 136,369 158,610 165,246 277,734 281,265
Reported net profit (THBm) 2,796 5,610 4,273 4,359 5,568
Recurring net profit (THBm) 2,688 6,916 2,635 4,359 5,568
Recurring net profit growth (%) (64.3) 157.3 (61.9) 65.4 27.7
Core EPS (THB) 1.95 5.02 1.91 3.16 4.04
DPS (THB) 0.85 1.58 1.24 1.27 1.62
Dividend Yield (%) 2.5 4.6 3.6 3.6 4.7
Core P/E (x) 17.8 6.9 18.2 11.0 8.6
Return on average equity (%) 11.5 21.4 13.8 13.0 15.3
P/B (x) 2.12 1.61 1.49 1.38 1.26
P/CF (x) 7.6 24.4 5.2 5.3 6.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.1 6.9 10.4 7.0 5.8
Net debt to equity (%) 46.1 48.7 34.0 39.8 30.5
Our vs consensus EPS (%) 0.0 0.0
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFA TM Platform 1

Bangchak Petroleum (BCP TB)
2 August 2013
Figure 1: 2QFY13 net profit
FYE Dec. 2Q13 1Q13 q-o-q chg YTD FY13 YTD FY12 y-o-y chg
Revenue 45,105 47,283 -5% 92,388 87,972 5%
EBIT 1,845 2,781 -34% 4,626 2,425 91%
Net interest exp. (241) (268) -10% (509) (8) 6367%
PBT 482 2,714 -82% 3,197 2,781 15%
Net profit 407 2,198 -81% 2,606 2,054 27%
EPS (Bt) 0.3 1.6 -81% 1.9 1.5 27%
EBITDA margin 3.1% -6.3% -149% 8.9% 6.4% 38%
Source: RHB estimates
Figure 2: Operating variables
2Q13 1Q13 2Q12 q-o-q y-o-y
Refinery business
Average crude run 96 100 71 -4% 35%
Utilisation rate (%) 80% 83% 59% -4% 35%
Ave. FX rate 30.02 29.94 31.43 0% -4%
(USD/bbl)
Market GRM 5.68 7.97 4.85 -29% 17%
GRM hedging 0.76 0.07 0.93 986% -18%
G/L on inventory (3.52) 2.08 (6.81) -269% -48%
Total 2.92 10.12 (1.03) -71% -383%
EBITDA (THB mn) 1,485 2,148 982 -31% 51%
Marketing business
Total sales volume (ml) 1,724 1,757 1,398 -2% 23%
Marketing margin (THB/l) 0.59 0.50 0.87 18% -32%
EBITDA (THB mn) 466 444 697 5% -33%
Source: RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

Bangchak Petroleum (BCP TB)
2 August 2013
Financial Exhibits
Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Total turnover 136,369 158,610 165,246 277,734 281,265
Cost of sales (130,020) (147,984) (158,083) (267,774) (269,805)
Gross profit 6,350 10,626 7,163 9,960 11,460
Gen & admin expenses (3,406) (3,841) (4,100) (4,100) (4,100)
Operating profit 2,944 6,785 3,063 5,860 7,360
Operating EBITDA 4,814 8,838 5,516 8,622 10,122
Depreciation of fixed assets (1,870) (2,053) (2,453) (2,762) (2,762)
Operating EBIT 2,944 6,785 3,063 5,860 7,360
Net income from investments - (18) (23) 229 229
Other recurring income 745 1,542 661 - -
Interest income - - - 131 124
Interest expense (879) (783) (940) (856) (856)
Exchange gains 912 170 346 - -
Other non-recurring income 146 (1,448) 1,909 - -
Pre-tax profit 3,867 6,248 5,017 5,364 6,857
Taxation (995) (615) (715) (976) (1,259)
Minority interests (76) (22) (30) (30) (30)
Profit after tax & minorities 2,796 5,610 4,273 4,359 5,568
Reported net profit 2,796 5,610 4,273 4,359 5,568
Recurring net profit 2,688 6,916 2,635 4,359 5,568
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Cash flow (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Operating profit 2,944 6,785 3,063 5,860 7,360
Depreciation & amortisation 1,870 2,053 2,453 2,762 2,762
Change in working capital 1,744 (7,188) 4,400 2,029 (338)
Other operating cash flow 1,656 1,712 1,007 - -
Operating cash flow 8,214 3,362 10,924 10,652 9,784
Interest received - - - 131 124
Interest paid (879) (783) (940) (856) (856)
Tax paid (995) (615) (715) (976) (1,259)
Cash flow from operations 6,340 1,964 9,269 8,951 7,793
Capex 2,932 (5,456) (5,742) (12,678) (3,312)
Other investing cash flow (3,360) (2,110) 2,545 2,835 (215)
Cash flow from investing activities (428) (7,566) (3,196) (9,843) (3,527)
Dividends paid (2,014) (1,175) (2,183) (1,709) (1,743)
Proceeds from issue of shares 290 2,895 - - -
Increase in debt 3,697 (1,036) 441 - -
Other financing cash flow - - - (309) (309)
Cash flow from financing activities 1,972 684 (1,742) (2,018) (2,052)
Cash at beginning of period 2,136 9,109 4,021 8,006 5,096
Total cash generated 7,884 (4,918) 4,331 (2,910) 2,214
Forex effects (912) (170) (346) - -
Implied cash at end of period 9,109 4,021 8,006 5,096 7,310
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

Bangchak Petroleum (BCP TB)
2 August 2013
Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Total cash and equivalents 9,118 4,031 8,019 5,109 7,323
Inventories 15,608 16,658 19,175 19,175 16,876
Accounts receivable 5,726 8,473 8,896 8,896 8,896
Other current assets 1,632 2,133 1,018 1,018 2,813
Total current assets 32,084 31,294 37,107 34,197 35,907
Total investments 287 1,030 1,017 1,017 1,017
Tangible fixed assets 24,883 28,286 31,574 41,800 42,658
Total other assets 1,158 986 1,154 362 362
Total non-current assets 26,328 30,302 33,746 43,179 44,037
Total assets 58,412 61,597 70,853 77,376 79,944
Short-term debt 2,702 2,551 1,010 1,010 1,010
Accounts payable 10,420 10,327 16,469 16,469 16,469
Other current liabilities 4,458 1,662 1,748 3,777 2,935
Total current liabilities 17,580 14,540 19,227 21,256 20,414
Total long-term debt 16,915 16,030 18,013 18,013 18,013
Other liabilities 1,137 1,146 1,290 3,138 3,178
Total non-current liabilities 18,052 17,176 19,303 21,151 21,191
Total liabilities 35,632 31,717 38,530 42,408 41,605
Share capital 1,177 1,377 1,377 1,377 1,377
Retained earnings reserve 12,959 17,176 19,590 22,205 25,546
Other reserves 8,481 11,176 11,176 11,176 11,176
Shareholders' equity 22,616 29,729 32,143 34,758 38,099
Minority interests 164 151 180 210 240
Other equity (0) 0 - (0) 0
Total equity 22,780 29,880 32,323 34,968 38,339
Total liabilities & equity 58,412 61,597 70,853 77,376 79,944
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Key Ratios (THB) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Revenue growth (%) 25.5 16.3 4.2 68.1 1.3
Operating profit growth (%) (34.9) 130.5 (54.8) 91.3 25.6
Net profit growth (%) (62.8) 100.6 (23.8) 2.0 27.7
EPS growth (%) (62.8) 100.6 (23.8) 2.0 27.7
Bv per share growth (%) (12.6) 31.5 8.1 8.1 9.6
Operating margin (%) 2.2 4.3 1.9 2.1 2.6
Net profit margin (%) 2.1 3.5 2.6 1.6 2.0
Return on average assets (%) 5.0 9.3 6.5 5.9 7.1
Return on average equity (%) 11.5 21.4 13.8 13.0 15.3
Net debt to equity (%) 46.1 48.7 34.0 39.8 30.5
DPS 0.85 1.58 1.24 1.27 1.62
Recurrent cash flow per share 4.60 1.43 6.73 6.50 5.66
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

Bangchak Petroleum (BCP TB)
2 August 2013
SWOT Analysis
One of the smaller refineries in Thailand, but its
strength is its local approach to consumers via its
nationwide network of gas stations
Its business
strategies are
not new and its
competitors
have entered
the same
business
Its tie-up with
Big-C, one of
the strongest
convenience
store brands in
Thailand, will
draw more
customers to its
gas stations
Diversifying into
the solar power
business has
stabilised its
earnings and
created new
opportunities for
further
expansion
Its refinery is small and among the oldest in the
country
P/E (x) vs EPS growth
P/BV (x) vs ROAE
18
5,000%
2.5
35%
16
14
3,889%
2,778%
2.0
28%
12
10
1,667%
556%
1.5
21%
8
6
-556%
-1,667%
1.0
14%
4
2
-2,778%
-3,889%
0.5
7%
0
-5,000%
0.0
0%
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
P/E (x) (lhs)
EPS growth (rhs)
P/B (x) (lhs)
Return on average equity (rhs)
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Company Profile
Bangchak Petroleum (BCP) is a 120,000 barrel per day (bpd) refinery whose retail marketing business is the country’s third-largest in
terms of market share. The group has diversified into the solar business, which is expected to provide stable earnings moving forward.
See important disclosures at the end of this report 5

Bangchak Petroleum (BCP TB)
2 August 2013
Recommendation Chart
Price Close
42 Recommendations & Target Price
37
32
27
22
17
12
7
2
Aug-08 Nov-09 Feb-11 May-12
NR
25.6
32.5
40.6
Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated
Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg
Date Recommendation Target Price Price
2013-05-20 Neutral 40.6 36.8
2012-11-08 Buy 32.5 26.8
2012-08-09 Neutral 25.6 22.7
Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report 6

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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(formerly known as OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL)
10th Floor, Sathorn Square Office Tower
98, North Sathorn Road, Silom
Bangrak, Bangkok 10500
Thailand
Tel: +(66) 862 9999
Fax : +(66) 108 0999
8

Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2012
ADVANC BCP DRT IRPC NOBLE QH SC SYMC TOP
AOT BECL EASTW KBANK PHOL RATCH SCB THAI TSTE
ASIMAR BKI EGCO KK PS ROBINS SCC TIP TTA
BAFS BMCL ERW KTB PSL RS SE-ED TIPCO
BANPU BTS GRAMMY LPN PTT SAMART SIM TISCO
BAY CPN HEMRAJ MCOT PTTEP SAMTEL SIS TKT
BBL CSL ICC NKI PTTGC SAT SNC TMB
2S BROOK DTAC HMPRO MACO OFM S&J SSSC THRE TSC
ACAP BWG DTC HTC MAKRO OGC S&P STANLY TIC TSTH
AF CENTEL ECL IFEC MBK OSIHI SABINA STEC TICON TTW
AIT CFRESH EE INTUCH MBKET PAP SAMCO SUC TIW TUF
AKR CGS EIC ITD MFC PDI SCCC SUSCO TK TVO
AMATA CHOW ESSO IVL MFEC PE SCG SVI TLUXE UAC
AP CIMBT FE JAS MINT PG SCSMG SYNTEC TMT UMI
ASK CK FORTH KCE MODERN PHATRA*** SFP TASCO TNITY UP
ASP CM GBX KGI MTI PJW SITHAI TCAP TNL UPOIC
AYUD CPALL GC KSL NBC PM SMT TCP TOG UV
BEC CPF GFPT L&E NCH PR SPALI TFD TPC VIBHA
BFIT CSC GL LANNA NINE PRANDA SPCG TFI TRC VNT
BH DCC GLOW LH NMG PRG SPI THANA TRT WACOAL
BIGC DELTA GUNKUL LRH NSI PT SPPT THCOM TRU YUASA
BJC DEMCO HANA LST OCC PYLON SSF THIP TRUE ZMICO
*** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.
AEONTS BGT CMO GENCO JTS LHBANK NC PTL SGP SWC TPAC UT
AFC BLA CNS GFM JUBILE LHK NNCL Q-CON SIAM SYNEX TPCORP VARO
AGE BNC CNT GLOBAL JUTHA LIVE NTV QLT SIMAT TBSP TPIPL WAVE
AH BOL CPL GOLD KASET LOXLEY OSK QTC SINGER TCB TPP WG
AHC BROCK CRANE HFT KBS MAJOR PAE RASA SIRI TEAM TR WIN
AI BSBM CSP HTECH KC MATCH PATO RCL SKR TF TTCL WORK
AJ BTNC CSR HYDRO KDH MATI PB RICH SMIT TGCI TWFP
ALUCON BUI CTW IFS KIAT MBAX PICO ROJNA SMK THANI TYCN
AMANAH CCET DRACO IHL KKC M-CHAI PL RPC SOLAR TKS UBIS
APCO CEN EASON ILINK KTC MDX POST SAM SPC TMD UEC
APCS CHUO EMC INET KWC MJD PPM SCBLIF SPG TMI UIC
APRINT CI EPCO IRC KWH MK PREB SCP SSC TNH UMS
ARIP CIG FNS IRCP KYE MOONG PRECHA SEAFCO SST TNPC UOBKH
AS CIMBI*** FOCUS IT LALIN MPIC PRIN SENA STA TOPP UPF
ASIA CITY FSS JMART LEE MSC PSAAP SF SVOA TPA US
*** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.
IOD (IOD Disclaimer)
การเปิดเผลผลการส ารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบริษัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการก ากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี้เป็นการ
ด าเนินการตามนโยบายของส านักงานคณะกรรมการก ากับหลักทรัพย์และตลาดหลักทรัพย์ โดยการส ารวจของ IOD เป็นการส ารวจและประเมินจากข้อมูลของบรษัทจด
ทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลักทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผู้ลงทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถึงได้ ดังนั้นผลส ารวจ
ดังกล่าวจึงเป็นการน าเสนอในมุมมองของบุคคลภายนอกโดยไม่ได้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบัติและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมูลภายในในการประเมิน
อนึ่ง ผลการส ารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการส ารวจ ณ วันที่ปรากฎในรายงานการก ากับดูและกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการส ารวจจึงอาจ
เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทั้งนี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี โอเอส เค จ ากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการส ารวจดังกล่าวแต่อย่างใด