National Early Recovery and Reconstruction Plan for Gaza 2014-2017_FINAL...

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68 The National Early Recovery and Reconstruction Plan for Gaza 2014 SECTION 6: FINANCING REQUIREMENTS AND MECHANISMS 6.1 Overview of Current Fiscal Situation The Palestinian Government has made significant and continued efforts to improve its fiscal performance through revenue reforms and expenditure limitations. In 2013, on account of these measures, the fiscal deficit declined by 2.7 percentage points to 13.9 percent of GDP. However, the Government’s fiscal position remains extremely fragile, highly reliant on donor support, and highly dependent on economic and political relations with Israel. By the end of 2013 public debt, including arrears and clearance revenue advances, had reached $4.6 billion, close to 40 percent of GDP. The total budget for 2014 was $4.4 billion, comprising 92 percent recurrent and 8 percent development expenditure. Even before the National Consensus Government was formed, expenses on Gaza comprised almost 40 percent of the budget, comprising payments of salaries for public-sector workers; coverage of non-wage bill items like health referrals, medical supplies, and social assistance; and coverage of fuel and net lending expenses for electricity and water. Disbursements amount to approximately $120 million on a monthly basis or $1.44 billion annually. 2013 (Actual) 2014 (Projected) % Change USD m USD m % Gross Revenues 2,687 2,923 9% Total Net Revenues 2,443 2,752 13% Total Expenditure and Net Lending 3,903 4,110 5% Of which Gaza expenditure 1,440 1,440 - Current Balance (1,460) (1,358) -7% Development Expenditures 197 316 60% Total Balance (1,657) (1,674) 1% In its September 2014 report to the AHLC, the IMF described the near-term fiscal outlook as challenging in any scenario, without accounting for the spending needed for Gaza reconstruction. It forecasts a fiscal gap of approximately $350 million for 2014, accounting for 16.5 percent of GDP, assuming that overall donor financing will reach $1.5 billion. The July/August assault in Gaza has provided an unprecedented shock to the Government’s already strained budget position. The National Consensus Government is faced with a recovery and reconstruction bill that is equivalent to the entire 2014 budget, 13 times the 2014 development budget, and over 20 times the 2013 development budget. In the absence of external support, incurring the cost of reconstruction would imply not being able to meet recurrent expenditures in the West Bank and/or up to a doubling of the existing public debt, neither of which is practically or politically possible. Given the scale and urgency of the challenge, the Government has no choice but to reach out to the international community for support with this momentous task. The Government sees the investment in Gaza as an investment in stability and the viability of a future Palestinian state. Whilst Gaza’s rebuilding will be costly in the short- to medium -term, the Government’s vision for Gaza is one of sustainability and self-sufficiency, where Gaza is an integral driver of the Palestinian economy and where it contributes to the fiscal position of the Government.
69 6.2 Summary of Recovery and Reconstruction Costs The total costs of the reconstruction effort are estimated at $4 billion, of which $414 million is required for immediate relief, $1.2 billion for early recovery, and $2.4 billion for the reconstruction of Gaza. Financing for the immediate relief and early recovery phases is required immediately; financing for reconstruction projects will be required in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Summary Costs by Sector and Sub-Sector Sector Sub-Sector Relief Phase (USD m) Early Recovery Phase (USD m) Reconstruction Phase (USD m) Total (USD, m) Social Protection 230 8 80 317 Social Health and Psychosocial Support 14 159 45 218 Education and Higher Education 1 45 75 121 Civil Society 0 4 41 45 Sub-total 245 215 241 701 Infrastructure & Environment Rubble & ERW 0 20 14 34 Energy 0 32 153 185 Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 40 80 116 236 Housing and Shelter 129 143 910 1,182 Governmental Buildings and Other Public Infrastructure 0 51 97 149 Border Crossings 0 5 50 55 Roads 0 0 70 70 Environment 0 1 0 1 Sub-total 169 332 1,411 1,911 Agriculture 0 194 257 451 Economic Industry and Manufacturing 0 75 284 359 Trade and Services 0 130 77 207 Employment 0 62 7 69 Promoting Investment 0 20 130 150 Sub-total 0 481 754 1,235 Operational Capacity of Central Gov. Institutions 0 113 0 113 Governance Operational Capacity of Local Government Institutions 0 31 0 31 Rule of Law and Human Rights 0 1 6 7 Implementation and Coordination 0 12 20 32 Sub-total 0 157 26 183 TOTAL 414 1,184 2,432 4,030
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7 State of Palestine ACKNOWLEDGMENT
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9 Gaza’s private sector has suffe
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