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SURVEY<br />

<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> <strong>Radar</strong> <strong>2012</strong><br />

European Aerospace & Defence industry


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

WHY PRODUCE A TOP MANAGEMENT ISSUES RADAR?<br />

As a top strategy consultancy in the European Aerospace & Defence sector,<br />

<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Strategy Consultants actively supports industry leaders in<br />

identifying challenges, uncovering solutions and driving decisive change in<br />

their organizations<br />

In 2008 we identified a growing need for dialogue amongst senior executives<br />

regarding the key issues that affect the industry. Therefore, we launched a<br />

«<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> <strong>Radar</strong>» to support executive-level thinking across<br />

the European Aerospace & Defence industry<br />

The latest survey was conducted between March and April <strong>2012</strong>, involving<br />

more than 100 senior industry executives and representing a broad range<br />

of segments and positions in the value chain. The survey captured prevailing<br />

trends on two hot topics:<br />

> Globalization of markets: how do A&D players intend to develop business<br />

outside Western Europe?<br />

> Globalization of operations: how do they intend to develop design and<br />

production capabilities abroad?<br />

Here are our conclusions. We trust you will find them insightful and relevant<br />

to your strategic thinking and decision making. We would welcome the<br />

opportunity to have a more detailed discussion directly with you on any of<br />

the issues presented.<br />

The European Aerospace & Defence<br />

practice management team<br />

Georgy Babilashvily (Moscow)<br />

Sébastien Cailliau (Brussels)<br />

Roberto Crapelli (Milan)<br />

Martin Eisenhut (Munich)<br />

Didier Gobin (Paris)<br />

François Guenard (Paris)<br />

Manfred Hader (Hamburg)<br />

Juergen Liedl (Berlin)<br />

Alberto De Monte (Rome)<br />

Alain d’Oultremont (Brussels)<br />

Mathieu Pacault (Paris)<br />

Philippe Plouvier (Paris)<br />

Jérôme Rein (Paris)<br />

Ali Rekik (Paris)<br />

Paul Sloman (London)<br />

Robert Thomson (London)<br />

Didier Tshidimba (Brussels)<br />

Michel Vlasselaer (Brussels)<br />

Joerg Wahler (Stuttgart)<br />

1


TOPICS<br />

a. COMPANY AGENDAS IN 2011<br />

b.<br />

c.<br />

d.<br />

DEVELOPING BUSINESS OUTSIDE WESTERN EUROPE<br />

DEVELOPING DESIGN AND PRODUCTION CAPABILITIES<br />

OUTSIDE EUROPE<br />

VISION OF THE A&D BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IN 2015<br />

3


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

a. Company agendas in <strong>2012</strong><br />

FOR THE FIRST TIME, MANUFACTURING AND SUPPLY CHAIN ARE THE TOP CONCERNS FOR SENIOR<br />

EUROPEAN A&D EXECUTIVES<br />

TOP PRIORITY IN COMPANY'S AGENDA<br />

[4 MOST FREQUENT ANSWERS]<br />

2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

<strong>2012</strong><br />

RATIONALE AND INDUSTRY TREND<br />

Manufacturing and Supply Chain are for the first time the top concerns for<br />

European A&D decision makers<br />

#1<br />

Programme<br />

<strong>Management</strong><br />

Programme<br />

<strong>Management</strong><br />

Programme<br />

<strong>Management</strong><br />

Programme<br />

<strong>Management</strong><br />

Manufacturing<br />

Despite the financial crisis, many A&D companies are enjoying historic order<br />

book levels that ensure capacity engagement for several years ahead<br />

#2<br />

Market<br />

Strategy/<br />

Globalisation<br />

Market<br />

Strategy/<br />

Globalisation<br />

Market<br />

Strategy/<br />

Globalisation<br />

Market<br />

Strategy/<br />

Globalisation<br />

Supply<br />

Chain<br />

Securing on-time delivery in line with production plans has turned into a short<br />

term challenge as several major civil and military programmes are moving from<br />

development to industrialization or early series production phase<br />

Stakes are high for most players, who need<br />

> To establish or restore credibility vs. poor ramp-up performance in the past<br />

#3<br />

#4<br />

Supply<br />

Chain<br />

External<br />

Growth/PMI<br />

Flexibility<br />

Marketing<br />

& Sales<br />

Product<br />

Strategy<br />

Supply<br />

Chain<br />

Innovation<br />

and R&D<br />

efficiency<br />

Supply<br />

Chain<br />

Market<br />

Strategy/<br />

Globalisation<br />

Programme<br />

<strong>Management</strong><br />

> To reduce recurring costs to compensate for cost overruns during<br />

>>development phases<br />

Market Strategy/ Globalisation remains a top priority in light of increasing<br />

global competition. Most companies are planning to sustain their growth<br />

initiatives both in terms of product/ service portfolio extension and geographic<br />

expansion, as explored in <strong>2012</strong> survey<br />

Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> "<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> radar <strong>2012</strong>" Survey<br />

4


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

a. Company agendas in <strong>2012</strong><br />

TWO THIRDS OF RESPONDENTS CONSIDER THEIR COMPANY READY TO COPE WITH DELIVERY RATE<br />

INCREASE AND NEW PROGRAMME RAMP-UPS<br />

READINESS TO COPE WITH DELIVERY RATE INCREASE<br />

AND NEW PROGRAMMES RAMP-UPS<br />

[% ANSWERS]<br />

RATIONALE AND INDUSTRY TREND<br />

With order books at historic levels, most Prime contractors and Tier-1 suppliers<br />

have anticipated ramp-up challenges and have launched initiatives to get prepared,<br />

mainly<br />

> Capacity investments<br />

> Manufacturing efficiency new projects<br />

NO<br />

32%<br />

68%<br />

YES<br />

Schedule drifts of major development programmes and delayed industrial rampups<br />

(e.g. due to government pressure to slow-down the delivery rate of military<br />

products) have also provided further capacity and time for preparation<br />

Nevertheless major uncertainties remain<br />

Actual maturity/manufacturability of the new product designs (e.g. composite), was<br />

stated last year as n°1 key success factor for ramp-up<br />

Readiness of Tier-2 suppliers to ramp-up (investments capacity limited compared to<br />

Prime contractors and Tier-1 suppliers)<br />

Readiness of new suppliers, e.g. in emerging countries (capacity and capabilities<br />

not yet demonstrated)<br />

Availability of raw material (e.g. forging, carbon fiber)<br />

Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> "<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> radar <strong>2012</strong>" Survey<br />

5


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

a. Company agendas in <strong>2012</strong><br />

MOST COMPANIES PLAN TO SUSTAIN THEIR GROWTH INITIATIVES BOTH IN TERMS OF<br />

PRODUCT/SERVICE PORTFOLIO EXTENSION AND GEOGRAPHIC EXPANSION<br />

GROWTH INITIATIVES SUSTAINED VS. LAST YEAR<br />

[% ANSWERS]<br />

RATIONALE AND INDUSTRY TREND<br />

NO<br />

100%<br />

12%<br />

100%<br />

13%<br />

The return of growth to the top of the agenda in 2011 had been a<br />

significant change vs. the previous years when companies were still<br />

focused on reorganization and cost containment<br />

Growth remains a top priority in companies’ agendas in <strong>2012</strong> with<br />

motivations including:<br />

> Meet ambitious targets set by shareholders>><br />

YES<br />

88%<br />

87%<br />

> Increase the geographic proximity to customers>><br />

> Diversify into non-cyclical businesses and compensate for the >>weakness<br />

of some domestic markets (e.g. defence)<br />

<strong>2012</strong> survey confirms companies’ willingness to grow both in terms of<br />

Broader product /<br />

service portfolio<br />

Geographic<br />

expansion<br />

> Product/service portfolio extension: mainly new product / services for the<br />

market segments currently addressed, but also penetration of new A&D<br />

market segments<br />

> Geographic expansion, as detailed in the following pages<br />

Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> "<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> radar <strong>2012</strong>" Survey<br />

6


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

b. Developing business outside Western Europe<br />

ALMOST HALF OF COMPANIES INTERVIEWED AIM TO DERIVE 60%+ OF THEIR REVENUES<br />

FROM OUTSIDE WESTERN EUROPE<br />

COMPANIES TARGETING MORE<br />

THAN 60% OF BUSINESS OUTSIDE<br />

WESTERN EUROPE<br />

[% ANSWERS]<br />

24%<br />

43%<br />

TOP EXECUTIVE INSIGHTS<br />

"Although the economic environment worsened<br />

more markedly than expected, particularly in<br />

defence, our order intake increased and our<br />

revenues held up well. A marked upturn in our<br />

results is now underway, driven by […] our<br />

stronger footprint in growth regions "<br />

L. Vigneron, CEO Thales<br />

(company release, March <strong>2012</strong>)<br />

"Sagem targets € 2b revenues in the mid-term<br />

vs. € 1.26b in 2011 by increasing the share of its<br />

export business whose share is already 60%<br />

today"<br />

P. Petitcolin – CEO Sagem<br />

(Reuters / Eurosatory, June <strong>2012</strong>)<br />

RATIONALE AND INDUSTRY TREND<br />

Business development outside Western Europe is<br />

an immediate action in order to:<br />

> React to drastic cuts in European governmental<br />

budgets<br />

> Compensate cost reduction efforts driven by<br />

European civil clients/ operators<br />

> Capture opportunities on new programmes in<br />

emerging markets (e.g. C919, MS-21, KC390…)<br />

It also supports the mid-term strategy of most<br />

Western players who intend to:<br />

> Balance their portfolio of customers, as a risk<br />

mitigation<br />

> Secure long-terms positions in emerging markets<br />

Current<br />

Target<br />

"In the future, Cassidian aims to generate some<br />

50% of its revenues outside Europe"<br />

S. Zoller – CEO Cassidian<br />

(Süddeutsche Zeitung, Feb. <strong>2012</strong>)<br />

Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> "<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> radar <strong>2012</strong>" Survey, Press, Company communication<br />

7


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

b. Developing business outside Western Europe<br />

NORTH AMERICA IS SEEN AS THE MOST ATTRACTIVE AREAS FOR BUSINESS OUTSIDE<br />

WESTERN EUROPE; FOLLOWED BY CHINA AND SOUTH AMERICA (BRAZIL)<br />

MOST ATTRACTIVE AREAS FOR BUSINESS OUTSIDE<br />

WESTERN EUROPE [% ANSWERS]<br />

MAIN CHALLENGES IN ADDRESSING MARKET OUSIDE<br />

WESTERN EUROPE [% APPEARANCE IN TOP 3 ANSWERS]<br />

North America<br />

China<br />

19%<br />

26%<br />

North America, China and South America (inc. Brazil) appear as the most<br />

attractive areas to develop revenues outside Western Europe, as detailed in the<br />

following pages<br />

India and Russia are disregarded despite apparent business potential<br />

South America (incl. Brazil)<br />

Asia (excl. China)<br />

Middle East<br />

India<br />

Russia<br />

14%<br />

13%<br />

11%<br />

9%<br />

6%<br />

India<br />

> World’s largest arms importer (10% of global arms imports in 2007-2011)<br />

> But (a) high offset demands (30% to 50%), (b) complex decision-making/<br />

difficulty to secure decision enforcement and (c) privileged relationship<br />

with non-Western countries such as Russia<br />

Russia<br />

> Several major new programmes (MS-21, 5th generation fighter, …) and major<br />

>>military investment programme (~€ 490b for <strong>2012</strong>-2020)<br />

> But (a) difficulty of understanding local business rules and ways of working,<br />

>>(b) strong national preference policy (c) significant concerns regarding<br />

Intellectual Property protection<br />

Eastern and Central Europe<br />

2%<br />

Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> "<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> radar <strong>2012</strong>" Survey, SIPRI, Press<br />

8


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

b. Developing business outside Western Europe<br />

RESPONDING COMPANIES AIM TO DEVELOP CIVIL & MILITARY, PRODUCT AND SERVICES<br />

REVENUES OUTSIDE WESTERN EUROPE<br />

TYPE OF BUSINESS TARGETED [% ANSWERS]<br />

NORTH AMERICA BRAZIL CHINA<br />

Military<br />

100%<br />

10%<br />

Services<br />

100%<br />

8%<br />

Military<br />

100%<br />

10%<br />

Services<br />

100%<br />

7%<br />

Military<br />

Both<br />

100%<br />

5% 0%<br />

Services<br />

100%<br />

9%<br />

Both<br />

53%<br />

Both<br />

55%<br />

Both<br />

53%<br />

Both<br />

47%<br />

Both<br />

44%<br />

Civil<br />

95%<br />

Civil<br />

37%<br />

Product<br />

37%<br />

Civil<br />

37%<br />

Product<br />

46%<br />

Product<br />

47%<br />

Segments<br />

Portfolio<br />

Segments<br />

Portfolio<br />

Segments<br />

Portfolio<br />

The US military market still appears attractive for:<br />

> European primes despite the slow down in<br />

spending since 2008, as US military expenditures<br />

remain two times higher than in Western Europe<br />

where further budget cuts are expected<br />

> European tier-1 or sub-tier suppliers as 8 out of the<br />

10 largest defence-equipment producing<br />

companies are US based<br />

Embraer is becoming a major player, including in the<br />

military business (e.g. KC390)<br />

More globally, Brazil’s attractiveness results from its<br />

growth outlook, including increase in its military<br />

spending (ambition to become the local leader,<br />

necessity to address threats from Venezuela and<br />

drug traffic)<br />

China still shows a steady growth outlook in the civil<br />

business<br />

> Strong business drivers (GDP, internal passenger<br />

traffic…)<br />

> New major programmes to come (e.g. Long<br />

Range)<br />

> Favorable changes in regulation (e.g. liberalization<br />

of low altitude space expected to boost demand for<br />

helicopters and business jets)<br />

Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> "<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> radar <strong>2012</strong>" Survey, SIPRI<br />

9


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

b. Developing business outside Western Europe<br />

THE IMPORTANCE OF «TECHNOLOGY AND KNOW-HOW TRANSFER» AS A BUYING<br />

CRITERIA TENDS TO INCREASE AS LOCAL INDUSTRIAL MATURITY DECREASES<br />

MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN WINNING NEW BUSINESS [% ANSWERS]<br />

NORTH AMERICA BRAZIL CHINA<br />

Other<br />

Technology know-how transfer<br />

Offset<br />

100%<br />

6%<br />

7%<br />

1%<br />

Other<br />

Technology know-how transfer<br />

100%<br />

4%<br />

30%<br />

Other<br />

100%<br />

10%<br />

Product/service performance<br />

74%<br />

Offset<br />

14%<br />

Technology know-how transfer<br />

66%<br />

HIGH<br />

Price<br />

12%<br />

« Value for Money » and « Total Cost of Ownership »<br />

approaches promoted by the DoDs and major civil customers/<br />

operators set<br />

« Product /service performance » as the primary business Key<br />

Success Factor<br />

Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> "<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> radar <strong>2012</strong>" Survey<br />

10<br />

Product/service performance<br />

Price<br />

38%<br />

14%<br />

INDUSTRIAL MATURITY<br />

Offset<br />

Product/service performance<br />

Price<br />

16%<br />

7%<br />

1%<br />

LOW<br />

« Technology and know-how transfer » is the most important<br />

contributor to winning new businesses when a country still<br />

intends to develop its own technological base, in particular in<br />

the military business


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

b. Developing business outside Western Europe<br />

DEVELOPING AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE LOCAL RULES OF THE GAME AND A LOCAL<br />

POLITICAL SUPPORT ARE THE KEYS TO ADDRESS MARKETS ABROAD<br />

MAIN CHALLENGES IN ADDRESSING MARKET OUTSIDE<br />

WESTERN EUROPE [% APPEARANCE IN TOP 3 ANSWERS]<br />

RATIONALE AND INDUSTRY TREND<br />

Developing knowledge/<br />

understanding local rules of game<br />

Developing local political support<br />

Developing local design<br />

or production capabilities<br />

Adapting organizations and<br />

ways of working<br />

Customizing products/service features<br />

to local customer requirements<br />

Mobilizing financial resources<br />

Other<br />

2%<br />

4%<br />

21%<br />

15%<br />

11%<br />

11%<br />

36%<br />

Developing an understanding of the local rules of the game and<br />

local political support are perceived as the keys to creating client<br />

intimacy, overcoming local entry barriers and in the end succeeding<br />

in addressing markets abroad<br />

A&D companies are indeed drawing lessons learnt from the failure of<br />

standardized approaches to new markets they have traditionally<br />

deployed<br />

As a result, most A&D companies tend to set up local organizations<br />

to increase proximity with local decision makers<br />

« The formation of Selex Sistemi Integrati do Brazil is consistent with<br />

the Finmeccanica Group’s internationalisation strategy, leading to the<br />

creation of a local organisation [..] »<br />

Company communication (May 2011)<br />

« The Head of local subsidiaries are accountable for their portfolio of<br />

customers. The Parisian Head-Quarter no longer decides »<br />

L. Vigneron, CEO Thales (Le Figaro, Feb. <strong>2012</strong>)<br />

« Cassidian is based on country organisations »<br />

Company communication<br />

Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> "<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> radar <strong>2012</strong>" Survey, Press, Company communication<br />

11


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

b. Developing business outside Western Europe<br />

«A JOINT VENTURE/PARTNERSHIP WITH A LOCAL COMPANY» IS THE MOST EFFICIENT<br />

EXPANSION OPTION OUTSIDE THE US; WHERE A «LOCAL SUBSIDIARY» IS OPTIMAL<br />

MOST EFFICIENT DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM<br />

[% ANSWERS]<br />

UNITED STATES<br />

41%<br />

27%<br />

14% 14%<br />

1% 3%<br />

1<br />

2<br />

BRAZIL<br />

42%<br />

25% 24%<br />

1<br />

3<br />

2<br />

1 Local sales representation<br />

4<br />

3<br />

2 Local subsidiary<br />

5<br />

1%<br />

4<br />

3 Joint venture/partnership with local company<br />

6<br />

6%<br />

5<br />

1%<br />

6<br />

MIDDLE EAST<br />

38%<br />

1<br />

11%<br />

2<br />

40%<br />

3<br />

RUSSIA<br />

39% 42%<br />

1<br />

2%<br />

4<br />

11%<br />

2<br />

5%<br />

5<br />

4 Joint venture/partnership European company<br />

5 Acquisition<br />

6 Other<br />

3<br />

5%<br />

6<br />

5%<br />

4<br />

0%<br />

5<br />

3%<br />

6<br />

CHINA<br />

11% 14%<br />

1<br />

2<br />

65%<br />

3<br />

3%<br />

4<br />

2%<br />

5<br />

6%<br />

6<br />

RATIONALE AND INDUSTRY TREND<br />

JV / partnership with local company is<br />

highlighted as the preferred approach by half<br />

of respondents for all countries, as:<br />

> Local JVs / partnerships can support quick<br />

step changes<br />

> Several European players are not able to<br />

mobilize further human resources for growth<br />

(e.g. scarce profiles focused on current<br />

developments)<br />

> They enable foreign companies to overcome<br />

some entry barriers (see previous page)<br />

The relevance of local JVs / partnerships<br />

appears the greatest in China, which is still<br />

eager to partner with Western companies<br />

> To fulfill immediate needs<br />

> To support its long term strategy for<br />

technology acquisition and self-sustainability<br />

Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> "<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> radar <strong>2012</strong>" Survey, Press, Company communication<br />

12


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

c. Developing design and production capabilities outside Europe<br />

NORTH AMERICA AND INDIA ARE THE MOST ATTRACTIVE DESTINATIONS FOR<br />

COMPANIES LOOKING TO DEVELOP DESIGN CAPABILITIES ABROAD<br />

DESIGN CAPABILITIES<br />

RATIONALE AND INDUSTRY TREND<br />

COMPANIES WITH MORE<br />

THAN 30% OF CAPABILITIES<br />

OUTSIDE WESTERN EUROPE<br />

[% ANSWERS]<br />

43%<br />

REASONS<br />

[% ANSWERS]<br />

Other<br />

Flexibility<br />

Entry into<br />

new markets<br />

Access to available<br />

competencies<br />

100%<br />

4%<br />

10%<br />

18%<br />

19%<br />

MOST ATTRACTIVE AREAS<br />

[% ANSWERS]<br />

Russia<br />

South America<br />

China<br />

Asia (exc. China)<br />

Central/<br />

Eastern Europe<br />

100%<br />

6%<br />

6%<br />

7%<br />

9%<br />

9%<br />

Responding companies intend to develop<br />

Design capabilities in a limited number of<br />

target countries to achieve a local critical mass<br />

of skills and competencies<br />

Target areas are English-speaking countries,<br />

with historical design experience<br />

India is now moving upmarket and provides<br />

advanced Design capabilities (e.g. modelling/<br />

simulation) on top of ‘design commodities’<br />

(software verification, detailed drawing<br />

releases…)<br />

15%<br />

Customer<br />

requirements<br />

Cost<br />

competitiveness<br />

24%<br />

25%<br />

India<br />

North America<br />

30%<br />

33%<br />

Major A&D companies are developing their<br />

own capabilities or urging their legacy<br />

suppliers to do so: «Airbus works directly with<br />

Indian companies in the design and<br />

manufacture of aero structures and strongly<br />

encourages its major Tier 1 partners to do so<br />

as appropriate» – Company communication<br />

Current<br />

Target<br />

Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> "<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> radar <strong>2012</strong>" Survey, Company communication<br />

13


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

c. Developing design and production capabilities outside Europe<br />

COMPANIES ARE DEVELOPING PRODUCTION CAPABILITIES IN NORTH AMERICA AND<br />

CHINA TO IMPROVE COST COMPETITIVENESS AND MARKET ACCESS (OFFSET)<br />

PRODUCTION CAPABILITIES<br />

RATIONALE AND INDUSTRY TREND<br />

COMPANIES WITH MORE<br />

THAN 30% OF CAPABILITIES<br />

OUTSIDE WESTERN EUROPE<br />

[% ANSWERS]<br />

30%<br />

62%<br />

REASONS<br />

[% ANSWERS]<br />

Other<br />

Access to available<br />

competencies<br />

Flexibility<br />

Access to available<br />

competencies<br />

Customer<br />

requirements<br />

100%<br />

4%<br />

4%<br />

14%<br />

21%<br />

21%<br />

MOST ATTRACTIVE AREAS<br />

[% ANSWERS]<br />

Russia<br />

Central/<br />

Eastern Europe<br />

South America<br />

Asia (exc. China)<br />

India<br />

North America<br />

100%<br />

3%<br />

9%<br />

13%<br />

15%<br />

17%<br />

21%<br />

China appears as a priority development area<br />

for companies intending to enter the local<br />

market (offset) and seeking «low cost»<br />

production. However «low cost» motivation<br />

could be tempered by<br />

> The increase of production costs (average<br />

wage increase of 22% in 2011)<br />

> The production transfer costs frequently being<br />

underestimated (longer time to transfer and<br />

reach Western quality standards)<br />

US is a priority development area for companies<br />

intending to increase their dollar-cost base and<br />

develop the «made in US» brand required to<br />

access the local market (e.g. Airbus decision to<br />

set up an assembly line in Alabama)<br />

Cost<br />

competitiveness<br />

36%<br />

China<br />

22%<br />

Current<br />

Target<br />

Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> "<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> radar <strong>2012</strong>" Survey, Press<br />

14


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

c. Developing design and production capabilities outside Europe<br />

THE ASSESSMENT / DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL MANAGEMENT AND TECHNICAL TEAMS'<br />

SKILLS IS THE TOP CHALLENGE WHEN SETTING-UP AN INTERNAL CAPABILITY ABROAD<br />

INTERNAL CAPABILITIES (MAKE)<br />

RATIONALE AND INDUSTRY TREND<br />

AVERAGE LEAD-TIME FOR ESTABLISHING A MATURE<br />

INTERNAL CAPABILITY ABROAD (DESIGN OR PRODUCTION)<br />

[% OF ANSWERS]<br />

>5 years<br />

100%<br />

12%<br />

Green and brown field approaches are equally preferred for establishing<br />

internal capabilities (resp. 51% and 49% of answers). The selection of an<br />

approach seems primarily driven by constraints according to respondents<br />

> Existence of local capabilities, 'value for money' of potential targets<br />

> Local regulations preventing or favouring acquisitions<br />

The assessment and development of the skills of the local management and<br />

technical teams is quoted as the top challenge while establishing a new<br />

capability (25% of answers). The topic appears all the more critical as local<br />

skills / proficiency levels drive the performance of the new entity, but impact<br />

also domestic activities (European senior profiles used to develop local<br />

teams)<br />

2-5 years<br />


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

c. Developing design and production capabilities outside Europe<br />

ASSESSING THE CAPACITY AND CAPABILITIES OF POTENTIAL PARTNERS IS THE TOP<br />

CHALLENGE WHILE DEVELOPING AN EXTERNAL CAPABILITY ABROAD<br />

EXTERNAL CAPABILITIES (BUY)<br />

RATIONALE AND INDUSTRY TREND<br />

AVERAGE LEAD-TIME FOR ESTABLISHING A MATURE<br />

EXTERNAL CAPABILITY ABROAD (DESIGN OR PRODUCTION)<br />

[% OF ANSWERS]<br />

>5 years<br />

100%<br />

17%<br />

Although standard approaches exist, assessing the capacity and capabilities<br />

of potential partners is the major challenge while developing an external<br />

capability (28% of answers). From our experience, common difficulties<br />

include:<br />

> The limited visibility on actual workloads and competences: internal (e.g.<br />

production line or shared work centre), but even more external (suppliers /<br />

sub-contractors)<br />

> The lack of common standards in emerging countries: demonstrated<br />

capacity for local business, not necessarily achievable while complying with<br />

Western quality standards<br />

> The difficulty of extrapolating forecasts from pilot phases (scale effects, less<br />

management attention than during pilot, …)<br />

2-5 years<br />


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

d. Vision of the A&D business environment in 2015<br />

LOOKING AT THE FUTURE, DECLINING BUDGETS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE DEFENCE<br />

SECTOR, WHILE CIVIL SEGMENTS WILL FACE MULTIPLE CHALLENGES IN THE FIELD OF DELIVERY<br />

KEY CHALLENGES FACING THE CIVIL SECTOR<br />

[% ANSWERS]<br />

Funding availability<br />

Cost<br />

competitiveness 8%<br />

Competition<br />

19%<br />

9%<br />

19%<br />

Growing complexity<br />

in Supply Chain<br />

25%<br />

20%<br />

Ramp-up<br />

(incl. product<br />

maturity)<br />

External<br />

economic<br />

influences<br />

<strong>Top</strong> challenges quoted in the civil sector highlight a balanced focus between<br />

> External topics (competition, overall economic context)<br />

> Internal concerns (supply-chain and ramp-up management) mainly driven<br />

by the necessity to turn historical backlogs into profitable deliveries<br />

Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> "<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> radar <strong>2012</strong>" Survey<br />

KEY CHALLENGES FACING THE DEFENCE SECTOR<br />

[% ANSWERS]<br />

2% Rules & regulations<br />

Ramp-up 2%<br />

2% Technology<br />

Cost competitiveness 2%<br />

Relocation & transfer<br />

5%<br />

Delays<br />

7%<br />

Competition 12%<br />

68%<br />

Reduced<br />

government<br />

spending -<br />

shrinking<br />

market<br />

Business / sales perspectives are by far the main concern of companies<br />

active in the military sector due to<br />

> Declining government funding / lack of visibility of long term funding<br />

(political indecision and procurement disruption) in Western countries<br />

> The subsequent fierce competition in export markets now targeted by all<br />

Western players<br />

17


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

d. Vision of the A&D business environment in 2015<br />

ALTHOUGH SERVICES BUSINESS IS TARGETED, OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES KEEP<br />

PUSHING THAT TOPIC AT LOW POSITIONS IN OUR RANKING<br />

INTENTION TO DEVELOP THE<br />

SHARE OF SERVICES<br />

[% ANSWERS, 2011 SURVEY]<br />

88%<br />

YES<br />

SERVICE & SUPPORT AMONG TOP<br />

PRIORITY IN COMPANY'S AGENDA<br />

[RANKING]<br />

n°11<br />

among 15 topics<br />

for the 2007-<strong>2012</strong> period<br />

RATIONALE AND INDUSTRY TREND<br />

Through 2011 survey, 88% of respondents presented development of Services as a priority.<br />

They are looking for:<br />

> Stable and predicable revenues (v.s. cyclicality of product-market)<br />

> Extra lifecycle margins to recover development overruns and mitigate risks on recurring<br />

costs (e.g. raw material)<br />

> Long-term relationships with end-customers / operators intending to outsource non core<br />

activities<br />

Despite a clear objective of developing Service revenues, the topic does not appear as a top<br />

priority for respondents as<br />

> <strong>Management</strong> attention is still caught on operational challenges (e.g. ramp-up)<br />

> Service development is rarely considered as a company-wide initiative but rather the task<br />

of a single directorate<br />

As far as commercial aviation is concerned, the Support and Services arena might evolve<br />

more drastically with New Generation aircraft at 2025 horizons, with increased reliability and<br />

opportunity to envisage breakthrough approaches in terms of business models<br />

Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> "<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> radar <strong>2012</strong>" Survey<br />

18


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

d. Vision of the A&D business environment in 2015<br />

NEW COMPETITION FROM EMERGING MARKETS SEEN AS HAVING THE BIGGEST<br />

POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON INDUSTRY STRUCTURE TO 2015<br />

TRENDS TO CHANGE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE IN 2015<br />

[% ANSWERS]<br />

RATIONALE AND INDUSTRY TREND<br />

New competitors from<br />

emerging markets<br />

New OEM business model<br />

28%<br />

26%<br />

The increase in the number of first class players was already selected as the<br />

top 1 evolution of the business environment in the 2011 survey<br />

The development of competition from emerging markets is again perceived<br />

as the main driver for change in the industry structure. New players<br />

(e.g. COMAC-China, OAK/ODK-Russia, KAL/KAI-Korea), benefitting from<br />

significant state backing and/or a large protected domestic market, are<br />

indeed targeting first class positions<br />

New end customer<br />

requirements<br />

New technolgoies<br />

18%<br />

21%<br />

The evolution of OEM business models is also a key driver to reshape the<br />

structure of the industry<br />

OEMs repositioning at the front and back ends of the development process<br />

led Tier-1 suppliers to shift to system integration and pre-assembly supply,<br />

and consequently Tier-2 suppliers to offer integrated products or become<br />

specialists<br />

Entry of new competitors<br />

from outside A&D<br />

7%<br />

OEM willingness to capture more Service business and offer advanced<br />

service / support packages will, in the near future, impact the industry<br />

currently led by industrial branches of end-customers / operators and pure<br />

service providers<br />

Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> "<strong>Top</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Issues</strong> radar <strong>2012</strong>" Survey<br />

19


ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS<br />

d. Vision of the A&D business environment in 2015<br />

OUR VALUE PROPOSITION: WE HELP CLIENTS CONDUCT STRATEGIC AND OPERATIONAL<br />

TRANSFORMATIONS<br />

STRATEGY / M&A<br />

OPERATIONS<br />

Corporate Strategy and<br />

Portfolio <strong>Management</strong><br />

Services and<br />

Support Development Strategy<br />

Marketing /<br />

Business capture<br />

Mergers & Acquisitions /<br />

Alliances<br />

Corporate /<br />

BU Organisation Redesign<br />

A&D COMPETENCE<br />

CENTRE<br />

> Ability to work with <strong>Top</strong><br />

<strong>Management</strong> and operational<br />

teams<br />

> Expertise of core and functional<br />

processes of the Industry<br />

> Experience based on more than<br />

30 projects p.a. since 2000<br />

> Coverage of Commercial and<br />

Defence sectors<br />

Corporate Strategy and<br />

Portfolio <strong>Management</strong><br />

R&D Efficiency /<br />

Product Policy and Innovation<br />

Programme <strong>Management</strong><br />

Effuciency<br />

Supply Chain Optimistation<br />

Purchasing and Supplier<br />

<strong>Management</strong> Optimisation<br />

Manufacturing<br />

Performance Optimisation<br />

20


22<br />

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