Authors Iain Begg | Gabriel Glöckler | Anke Hassel ... - The Europaeum
Authors Iain Begg | Gabriel Glöckler | Anke Hassel ... - The Europaeum Authors Iain Begg | Gabriel Glöckler | Anke Hassel ... - The Europaeum
Target financial stability The EMU architecture was designed with the objective of safeguarding price stability in the Eurozone, leaving financial stability aside. After a long period of excess financial liquidity flowing in and out of European financial markets, asset price inflation, imprudent accumulation of financial risks and over reliance of financial institutions on leverage, this omission invites renewed interest. While the euro has crucially contributed to economic and financial stability, 1 financial stability as such has been absent from the macroeconomic models used by the ESCB, and EU central banks in general. Several economists and institutions, including the Bank for International Settlements, have long proposed the need for central banks to target asset price inflation as well, with an eye on preventing asset price bubbles. Moreover, as Paul de Grauwe suggests, since financial stability today also depends on avoiding deep recessions, stabilising the business cycle should also be of concern to the central bank. 2 This might be departing from the Maastricht-prescribed exclusive ECB focus on monetary stability, a field where the ECB has so far demonstrated success. Recent financial developments, however, have shown that a narrow definition of central bank success as confined to price stability is not enough. There is a case to be made for the ECB and other central banks to follow financial sector asset price movements more closely. The “regulatory philosophy” applied on the eve of the crisis has been shown to be wrong: a systemic crisis can still occur even if bank supervisors ensured individual banks were safe. There is now a shift in emphasis from micro to macro-prudential regulation, focusing on systemic stability. 3 The de Larosière Group 4 has recommended setting up a European Systemic Risk Council (ESRC), under the ECB, comprising EU-level committees of financial and banking supervisors and the Commission, with the task of gathering information on all macro-prudential risks in the EU, and working closely with the IMF, the Financial Stability Forum and G20 at a global level. In late September 2009 the Commission proposed the creation of a European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) along the lines recommended by de Larosière. Some believe it is time to revise the Treaty of the EU, to grant supervisory authority and formal lender of last resort capability to the ECB, the only institution in the Eurozone able to issue unlimited amounts of a global reserve currency. Article 105.6 of the EU Treaty provides the possibility of transferring Eurozone financial supervision (except for the insurance 32 After the crisis: A new socio-economic settlement for the EU
sector) to the ECB, following the unanimous EU27 Council decision. Alternatively, a new separate supervisory institution could be created next to the ECB. Below we briefly examine the competing alternatives. Too big to supervise: integrated markets, fragmented governance The regulatory and supervisory status quo is weak both in terms of crisis prevention and crisis management. The structure of financial supervision in Europe is not commensurate with the degree of market integration. It thus fails to ensure the desired efficiency and stability of the financial system. Back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when the EMU was designed, few banks in Europe had cross-border operations of significant scale. Following waves of cross-border bank mergers and acquisitions, this is no longer the case. Globalisation and financial market integration have resulted in the largest European banks becoming not only too big to fail but also too big to be saved. For example, at the peak of the September 2008 crisis, the total liabilities of the Deutsche Bank equalled 80% of Germany’s GDP, Barclays almost 100% of British GDP, and Fortis 300% of Belgian GDP. 5 In 2007, the 46 largest EU banking groups held 68% of all EU banking assets. Of these groups, 16 held at least 25% of their EU assets outside their home country and were present in at least six other EU member states. 6 The failure of the Icelandic Landsbanki showed that under existing single market rules, cross-border depositors as well as taxpayers can be exposed to significant risks. In the case of Landsbanki, UK depositors were rendered dependent on the limited resources of the Icelandic deposit insurance scheme. 7 European financial market infrastructure, such as clearing and settlement provision, has become increasingly internationalised. This promotes efficiency in good times but encourages contagion at times of crises. The potential failure of large pan-European financial institutions can spread across national boundaries to other member states, as a result of several transmission channels: directly via interbank markets, counterparty risk and investment in financial assets issued by the institution in question; indirectly via abrupt changes in asset prices, liquidity or credit availability, and the impact on GDP or the euro exchange rate. 8 Such combinations were witnessed in the latest financial crisis. The current regulatory and supervisory fragmentation hampers the chances of effective crisis management whenever a pan-European financial group gets into trouble. Fortis illustrates the weaknesses of defending against a fully-fledged euro-area crisis. Fortis was eventually saved after Chapter 2 – George Pagoulatos 33
- Page 1 and 2: Authors Iain Begg | Gabriel Glöckl
- Page 4 and 5: Published in 2009 by Policy Network
- Page 6 and 7: 4 After the crisis: A new socio-eco
- Page 8 and 9: 6 After the crisis: A new socio-eco
- Page 10 and 11: Simona Milio is associate director
- Page 12 and 13: Chapter 10 Simona Milio ...........
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- Page 22 and 23: following the ECJ’s controversial
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sector) to the ECB, following the unanimous EU27 Council decision.<br />
Alternatively, a new separate supervisory institution could be created next<br />
to the ECB. Below we briefly examine the competing alternatives.<br />
Too big to supervise: integrated markets,<br />
fragmented governance<br />
<strong>The</strong> regulatory and supervisory status quo is weak both in terms of crisis<br />
prevention and crisis management. <strong>The</strong> structure of financial supervision<br />
in Europe is not commensurate with the degree of market integration. It<br />
thus fails to ensure the desired efficiency and stability of the financial<br />
system. Back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when the EMU was<br />
designed, few banks in Europe had cross-border operations of significant<br />
scale. Following waves of cross-border bank mergers and acquisitions,<br />
this is no longer the case. Globalisation and financial market integration<br />
have resulted in the largest European banks becoming not only too big to<br />
fail but also too big to be saved. For example, at the peak of the September<br />
2008 crisis, the total liabilities of the Deutsche Bank equalled 80% of<br />
Germany’s GDP, Barclays almost 100% of British GDP, and Fortis 300%<br />
of Belgian GDP. 5 In 2007, the 46 largest EU banking groups held 68% of<br />
all EU banking assets. Of these groups, 16 held at least 25% of their EU<br />
assets outside their home country and were present in at least six other<br />
EU member states. 6 <strong>The</strong> failure of the Icelandic Landsbanki showed that<br />
under existing single market rules, cross-border depositors as well as<br />
taxpayers can be exposed to significant risks. In the case of Landsbanki,<br />
UK depositors were rendered dependent on the limited resources of the<br />
Icelandic deposit insurance scheme. 7<br />
European financial market infrastructure, such as clearing and settlement<br />
provision, has become increasingly internationalised. This promotes<br />
efficiency in good times but encourages contagion at times of crises. <strong>The</strong><br />
potential failure of large pan-European financial institutions can spread<br />
across national boundaries to other member states, as a result of several<br />
transmission channels: directly via interbank markets, counterparty risk<br />
and investment in financial assets issued by the institution in question;<br />
indirectly via abrupt changes in asset prices, liquidity or credit availability,<br />
and the impact on GDP or the euro exchange rate. 8 Such combinations<br />
were witnessed in the latest financial crisis.<br />
<strong>The</strong> current regulatory and supervisory fragmentation hampers the<br />
chances of effective crisis management whenever a pan-European financial<br />
group gets into trouble. Fortis illustrates the weaknesses of defending<br />
against a fully-fledged euro-area crisis. Fortis was eventually saved after<br />
Chapter 2 – George Pagoulatos 33