Authors Iain Begg | Gabriel Glöckler | Anke Hassel ... - The Europaeum

Authors Iain Begg | Gabriel Glöckler | Anke Hassel ... - The Europaeum Authors Iain Begg | Gabriel Glöckler | Anke Hassel ... - The Europaeum

europaeum.org
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14.11.2014 Views

Before the crash: the EU as a partial economic success story? These issues cannot be satisfactorily addressed without an overview of what EU economic and social policies had achieved in the period before the crisis broke. The decade prior to the millennium was one of much soul searching about the EU’s economic record. In the aftermath of German unification, the Bundesbank’s anti-inflationary squeeze led to recession across much of the Continent as other members of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) struggled to stabilise their parities against the Deutschmark. Fiscal consolidation progressed as member states sought to meet the Maastricht convergence criteria for Euro membership. Unemployment rose sharply particularly among older workers and young people (and employment participation rates fell) as companies sought to maintain their core labour force in the face of weak demand. Trade unions, in cooperation with employers, sought to alleviate the employment problem through strategies of work-sharing that involved limitations on working time and extensive early retirement. Whereas until the 1980s the EU had steadily closed the gap in output per head with the United States, there then ensued a decade of stagnation. In the mid-1990s a productivity surge in the United States (often attributed to the information technology revolution) began to generate fresh fears that Europe was being left behind. Policy experts argued that Europe needed to prioritise “economic reform”, by which bodies such as the OECD meant labour market reforms 1 , to create more flexibility and weaken trade union resistance to change; further opening up of product markets, especially in services and the “network” industries, traditionally dominated by publicly owned monopolies; and financial liberalisation to create a Single Market in financial services. The EU bought into an agenda of “economic reform”. However, its conception of employment policy, embodied in the European Employment Strategy (EES) that grew out of the Luxembourg Jobs Summit in November 1997, was more Nordic in conception than the OECD’s and focused on active labour market policy and raising employment participation. To this mix of flexibility and active labour markets, in 2000 the Lisbon strategy added a more social democratic emphasis on both new forms of public investment in growth through research, innovation and skills, and the idea that welfare states and social inclusion policies could be re-designed to have a positive impact on economic performance. There is considerable academic debate as to whether or not policymakers’ continued emphasis on the “Lisbon” agenda of economic reform 12 After the crisis: A new socio-economic settlement for the EU

contributed much to timely and effective outcomes. Nevertheless, the first decade of the twenty-first century turned out to be a period of relative success for the European economy. A central feature of the upturn was the remarkably smooth transition to the euro. The ECB’s management of monetary policy consolidated remarkable price stability across the euro area – in sharp contrast to the preceding three decades. However, the euro was only partially perceived to be a success when the financial crisis struck. Its existence prevented currency turbulence and the rounds of competitive devaluation that would have occurred without it, which, in turn, would in all likelihood have increased economic dislocation and led to more pressures on the integrity of the Single Market. One other area of conspicuous policy success was employment. By the summer of 2008 unemployment had fallen rapidly to the lowest level seen in the EU as a whole since German re-unification: from the year 2000, jobs in the EU grew at a faster rate than in the United States. This reflected in part the success of piecemeal labour market reforms in member states. These reforms on the whole embedded a policy shift from work sharing, early retirement and limitations on working time (that had held sway in the 1980s and 90s) towards employment activation, “flexicurity” and greater flexibility. On the other hand, the US record in R&D and innovation in terms of output per head remained stronger than Europe’s. Overall, there was no real sign that the EU/US differential was narrowing. Detailed analysis showed that a large proportion of the EU’s “productivity gap” with the United States could be accounted for by retail and financial services. In manufacturing the picture was more nuanced. Some sectors such as apparel and footwear were forced to restructure and downsize radically in face of new global competition, with a particularly severe impact on Italy for example. On the other hand, the success of Germany in re-establishing itself as the world’s leading exporting nation demonstrated the pay off from difficult structural reforms at company level. Rather than globalisation signalling the end of Europe’s ability to compete in rapidly growing world markets, as was popularly feared, it demonstrated the scale of the huge new commercial opportunities that existed for European businesses that reorganised their global supply chains, focused their European activities on high value added and exploited new market niches. Economic integration, meanwhile, proceeded apace. Cross border mergers increased. In particular, cross border financial integration deepened as result of EU policy decisions on the creation of the euro and on financial Chapter 1 – Roger Liddle 13

contributed much to timely and effective outcomes. Nevertheless, the first<br />

decade of the twenty-first century turned out to be a period of relative<br />

success for the European economy. A central feature of the upturn was<br />

the remarkably smooth transition to the euro. <strong>The</strong> ECB’s management<br />

of monetary policy consolidated remarkable price stability across the<br />

euro area – in sharp contrast to the preceding three decades. However,<br />

the euro was only partially perceived to be a success when the financial<br />

crisis struck. Its existence prevented currency turbulence and the rounds<br />

of competitive devaluation that would have occurred without it, which, in<br />

turn, would in all likelihood have increased economic dislocation and led<br />

to more pressures on the integrity of the Single Market.<br />

One other area of conspicuous policy success was employment. By the<br />

summer of 2008 unemployment had fallen rapidly to the lowest level seen<br />

in the EU as a whole since German re-unification: from the year 2000,<br />

jobs in the EU grew at a faster rate than in the United States. This reflected<br />

in part the success of piecemeal labour market reforms in member states.<br />

<strong>The</strong>se reforms on the whole embedded a policy shift from work sharing,<br />

early retirement and limitations on working time (that had held sway<br />

in the 1980s and 90s) towards employment activation, “flexicurity” and<br />

greater flexibility.<br />

On the other hand, the US record in R&D and innovation in terms of<br />

output per head remained stronger than Europe’s. Overall, there was no<br />

real sign that the EU/US differential was narrowing. Detailed analysis<br />

showed that a large proportion of the EU’s “productivity gap” with the<br />

United States could be accounted for by retail and financial services.<br />

In manufacturing the picture was more nuanced. Some sectors such as<br />

apparel and footwear were forced to restructure and downsize radically in<br />

face of new global competition, with a particularly severe impact on Italy<br />

for example. On the other hand, the success of Germany in re-establishing<br />

itself as the world’s leading exporting nation demonstrated the pay off from<br />

difficult structural reforms at company level. Rather than globalisation<br />

signalling the end of Europe’s ability to compete in rapidly growing world<br />

markets, as was popularly feared, it demonstrated the scale of the huge<br />

new commercial opportunities that existed for European businesses that<br />

reorganised their global supply chains, focused their European activities<br />

on high value added and exploited new market niches.<br />

Economic integration, meanwhile, proceeded apace. Cross border mergers<br />

increased. In particular, cross border financial integration deepened as<br />

result of EU policy decisions on the creation of the euro and on financial<br />

Chapter 1 – Roger Liddle 13

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