IGIDR Annual Report 2009-2010 - Indira Gandhi Institute of ...

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Research Activities This. section. highlights. research. in. various. fields,. carried. out. by. members. of. the. IGIDR. faculty,. over.the.period.April.2009.to.March.2010. Macroeconomics and Monetary economics Reduced-form. estimates. of. the. Reserve. Bank. of. India’s.(RBI).first-order.condition.indicate.that.its. preferences. have. been. asymmetric. with. respect to. exchange-rate. management,. with. the. response. to. the. rate. of. rupee. appreciation. being. relatively. larger. than. to. the. rate. of. rupee. depreciation. of. the. same. magnitude.. This. behavior. is. shown. to. account. for. a. sizable. fraction. of. reserve. accretion. in. recent. years. by. V.. Mahambare, M.. Ramachandran. and. Naveen. Srinivasan. in. their. paper. titled. “Preference. asymmetry. and. international. reserve. accretion. in. India”. (Applied Economics Letters,. Vol.. 16,. Issue. 15,. October. 2009,.pp..1543-46.). An. emerging. consensus. in. macroeconomics. suggests. that. the. New. Keynesian. Phillips. curve. (NKPC). augmented. by. a. backward-looking. ‘persistent’. element. (dubbed. the. hybrid. NKPC). is. a. good. benchmark. model. usable. for. policy. evaluation.. The. addition. of. this. lag. term. is. designed. to. capture. the. inflation. persistence. that. is. left. unexplained. in. the. pure. forward-looking. model..Moreover,.this.specification.is.increasingly. being. promoted. as. providing. a. micro-founded. alternative. to. the. accelerationist. Phillips. curve,. with. estimated. coefficients. that. are. viewed. as. structural. parameters.. In. the. paper. “Is. the. Hybrid. New. Keynesian. Phillips. curve. immune. to. the. Lucas. Critique?,”. (Journal of Quantitative Economics,.New.Series.Vol..7.(2),.July.2009,.pp.. 96-105.). Naveen. Srinivasan. takes. issue. with. this. consensus. position.. Specifically,. he. shows. that. adding. this. inertial. element. makes. the. NKPC. vulnerable. to. the. Lucas. critique,. despite. the. fact. that. addressing. this. critique. is. a. major. focus. of. the.research.agenda.behind.this.approach. It. has. been. widely. argued. that. inflation persistence.since.WWII.has.been.widespread.and. durable. and. that. it. can. only. be. accounted. for. by. models. with. a. high. degree. of. nominal. rigidity.. In. the. paper. “Can. the. facts. of. UK. inflation. persistence. be. explained. by. nominal. rigidity?”. (Economic Modelling,.Vol..26,.Issue.5,.September. 2009,. pp.. 978-92),. David. Meenagh,. Patrick. Minford,. Eric. Nowell,. Prakriti. Sofat. and. Naveen. Srinivasan.examine.UK.post-war.data.where.after. confirming. previous. studies’. findings. of. varying. persistence. due. to. changing. monetary. regimes,. find. that. models. with. little. nominal. rigidity. are. best.equipped.to.explain.it. In. “The. Structure. of. Inflation,. Information. and. Labor. Markets:. Implications. for. monetary. policy,”. (in. Pradeep. Agrawal,. Biswanath. Goldar and. Pulin. Nayak. (eds.). India’s Economy and Growth: Essays in Honor of V.K.R.V. Rao,. RP- 2010-896). Ashima. Goyal. gives. a. simplified. version. of. a. typical. dynamic. stochastic. open. economy. general. equilibrium. models. used. to. analyze. optimal. monetary. policy.. The. paper. outlines. the. chief. modifications. when. dualism. in. labor. and. in. consumption. is. introduced. to. adapt. the. model. to. a. small. open. emerging. market. such. as. India.. The. implications. of. specific. labor. markets,. the. structure. of. Indian. inflation. and. its. measurement. are. examined.. Simulations. give. the. welfare. effects. of. different. types. of. inflation. targeting.. Flexible. CPI. inflation. targeting. (CIT). without. lags. works. best,. especially. if. the. economy. is. more. open.. But. volatile. terms. of. trade. make. the. supply. curve. even. steeper. than. in. a. small. open. economy. despite. specific. labor. markets. and. higher. labor. supply. elasticity.. Exchange. rate. intervention. limits. the. volatility. of. the. terms. of. trade. and. improves. outcomes,. making. the. supply. curve. flatter.. As. long. as. such. intervention. is. required,. domestic. inflation. targeting. (DIT). continues. to. be. more. robust. and. 4 Annual Report 2009-10
Research Activities effective..The.welfare.losses.from.the.lags.in.CPI,. which.prevent.the.implementation.of.CIT,.are.low. as. long. as. the. dualistic. structure. dominates.. As. the. economy. becomes. more. open,. however,. the loss. from. not. being. able. to. use. CIT. rises.. The. lags.in.CPI.therefore.need.to.be.reduced,.making. its.future.use.possible. In. her. paper. “Exchange. Rate. Regimes. and. Macroeconomic. Performance. in. South. Asia”. (WP-2010-005). Ashima. Goyal. presents. stylized. facts. for. South. Asia. which. shows. that. the. dominance. of. supply. shocks,. amplified. by macroeconomic. policies. and. procyclical. current. accounts.. Interest. and. exchange. rate. volatility. rose.initially.on.liberalization,.but.fell.as.markets. deepened.. A. gradual. middling. through. approach. to. openness. and. market. development. are. helping. the. region. absorb. shocks. without. reducing. growth.. Diverse. sources. of. demand,. flexible. exchange. rates,. robust. domestic. savings,. and. changing. political. preferences. are. contributing.. The.paper.argues.that.countercyclical.policy.more. suited. to. structure,. and. removal. of. distortions. raising. costs,. would. allow. better. coordination. of. monetary.and.fiscal.polices.to.further.support.the. process. In. “The. Indian. Exchange. Rate. and. Central. Bank. Action:. A. GARCH. Analysis,”. (WP-2010- 009). Ashima. Goyal. and. Sanchit. Arora. study,. with. daily. and. monthly. data. sets,. the. impact. of. conventional. monetary. policy. measures. such. as. interest. rates,. intervention. and. other. quantitative. measures,. and. of. Central. Bank. (CB). communication. on. exchange. rate. volatility.. Since. India. has. a. managed. float, they. also. test. if. the. measures. affect. the. level. of. the. exchange. rate.. Using. dummy. variables. in. the. best. of. an. estimated. family. of. GARCH. models,. they. find. forex. market. intervention. to. be. the. most. effective. of. all. the. CB. instruments. evaluated. for. the. period. of. analysis.. They. also. find. that. CB. communication. has. a. large. potential. but. has. not. been.effectively.used. Development economics In. the. paper. titled. “Effect. of. Conflict. on. Age. at. Marriage. and. Age. at. First. Birth. in. Rwanda,”. (Population Research and Policy Review,. Vol. 28,. Issue. 5,. pp-. 551-567,. October. 2009) Anuja. Jayaraman,. Tesfayi. Gebreselassie. and. S.. Chandrasekhar. use. Rwanda. Demographic. and. Health. Survey. 2005. data. to. estimate. a. Cox. proportional. hazard. model. in. order. to. identify. the. determinants. of. age. at. marriage. and. age. at. first. birth. and. whether. these. decisions. were. affected. by. conflict..They. find. that. women. living. in. clusters. accounting. for. a. larger. proportion. of. sibling. deaths. in. 1994,. the. year. of. the. genocide,. were. more. likely. to. marry. later. and. have. children. later. compared. with. those. living. in. clusters. accounting. for. a. lower. proportion. of. sibling. deaths.. Women. living. in. regions. with. higher. levels. of. under-five. mortality. were. more. likely. to. have. their. first. child. earlier. compared. with. women. living. in. regions. with. lower. infant. mortality.. The. age. at. marriage. was. probably. affected. by. two. reasons:. the. change. in. age. structure.and.sex.ratio.of.the.population.following. the.genocide,.and.the.breakdown.of.kinship.in.the. case.of.women.who.lost.their.siblings. In. another. paper. “Maternal. Health. Care. Seeking. Behavior. in. a. Post-Conflict. HIPC:. The. Case. of. Rwanda”. (Forthcoming. in. Population. Research. and. Policy. Review),. S.. Chandrasekhar,. Tesfayi. Gebreselassie. and. Anuja. Jayaraman. look. at. Rwanda,. which. is. one. of. nine. post-conflict. heavily. indebted. poor. countries. (HIPC). of. the. world.. Several. health. indicators. worsened. since. the. early. nineties. on. account. of. conflict.. In. light. of. this,. they. examine. factors. affecting. maternal. health. care. seeking. behavior. in. Rwanda. using. three. rounds. of. Rwanda. Demographic. and. Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research 5
Page 3 and 4: Contents Preface. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Page 5 and 6: Preface Indira. Gandhi. Institute.
Page 7 and 8: Organization of IGIDR BackgrounD, a
Page 9: Personnel Director S..Mahendra.Dev.
Page 13 and 14: Research Activities argues. that. s
Page 15 and 16: Research Activities issues in energ
Page 17 and 18: Research Activities energy. securit
Page 19 and 20: Research Activities (i). risk. miti
Page 21 and 22: Research Activities Bertrand.compet
Page 23 and 24: Research Activities political. affi
Page 25 and 26: Research Activities Public economic
Page 27 and 28: Projects IGIDR. faculty. members. u
Page 29 and 30: Projects the. light. of. recent. ec
Page 31 and 32: august-December 2009 (core courses)
Page 33 and 34: Faculty Activities ParticiPation in
Page 35 and 36: Faculty Activities First.meeting.of
Page 37 and 38: Faculty Activities Pal rupayan Pres
Page 39 and 40: Faculty Activities Sengupta nirmal
Page 41 and 42: Faculty Activities Workshop. on. id
Page 43 and 44: Faculty Activities refereeing/Membe
Page 45 and 46: Faculty Activities Ashima.Goyal.“
Page 47 and 48: Faculty Activities Member,.Standing
Page 49 and 50: Faculty Activities Sengupta nirmal
Page 51 and 52: Faculty Activities M.Phil/Ph.D.guid
Page 53 and 54: Faculty Research Publications Ashim
Page 55 and 56: Faculty Research Publications Lesso
Page 57 and 58: Faculty Research Publications Colla
Page 59 and 60: Faculty Research Publications Sharm
Page 61 and 62:
The. Post-Doctoral. Fellowship. (PD
Page 63 and 64:
Student Activities / Research Publi
Page 65 and 66:
Student Research Topics (Ongoing) S
Page 67 and 68:
Placement Cell IGIDR. has. a. full.
Page 69 and 70:
Visitors and Seminars 10.12.2009 Dr
Page 71 and 72:
Library and Information Services Th
Page 73 and 74:
UGC Visit November 11-12, 2009 (fro
Page 75 and 76:
Valedictory address of the Twelfth
Page 77 and 78:
A play by students on Annual Day Gr
Page 79 and 80:
Faculty and Areas of Interest Direc
Page 81 and 82:
Faculty and Areas of Interest Pal r
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