Solar Technology Trends in Semiconductors, Multijunction ... - Agrion

Solar Technology Trends in Semiconductors, Multijunction
Cells and CPV
Danny Gold
Project Engineer
Office 212-991-2141
Mobile 347-415-5903
E-mail: danny.gold@aecom.com
June 17, 2013

Presentation Outline
GOAL: Help you understand how to think
about the future costs of solar
1. How Solar Works
2. Trends in Pricing
3. State of the Art – Multi-junction
4. How prices can continue to fall

Its high school chemistry! Remember
valance shells of electrons?
1S(2), 2S(2), 2P(6), 3S(2), 3P(2) = Silicon!
2 + 2 + 6 + 2 + 2 = 14
How Solar Works
Si
Si
Si Si Si
Si
Si
P
Si
N Si
P-N Junction
P Si
Si Si
Si
Si
Si
Si
Si
B
Si
Si
Si
Fermi energy = that energy in
the photon from the specific
point in the spectrum = the
energy needed to knock the
electron from one shell to
another
Source: www.bpc.edu
Si Si Si Si
June 17, 2013 3

What’s been happening with pricing?
Silicon Shortage
(second most abundant
element on Earth)
Source: Paula Mints, Navigant, Solar Services Program
Why a shortage?
In my life I have had
• 11 phones (1 pager)
• 2 cars
• 7 computers
And thus needed
• 1 or 2 wafers of silicon
June 17, 2013
Now I need ~20 modules
Each with 60 wafers, or
1200 wafers, 3 orders of
magnitude more of this
material
4

Breakdown of Pricing
Source: Photovoltaic (PV) Pricing Trends: Historical, Recent, and Near-term Projections, D. Feldman, G. Barbose, R. Margolis, R. Wiser, B.
Darghought, A. Goodrich., NREL, LBNL, Nov. 2012.
Standard Industry Module Cost
Eurocents/Watt
June 17, 2013
5

Multi-junction vs. Mono-crystalline
June 17, 2013
6

N
P-N Junction
P
N
P-N Junction
P
N
P-N Junction
P
June 17, 2013
Si Si Si
Si P Si
Si Si Si
Si
Si
I Si Si
n
Si Si Si
Si As Si
Si Si Si
Si
Si
Si
Si Si Si
Si As Si
Si Si Si
Si
Si
Si
Si Ga Si
In Si Si
Si Ga Si
Si
Si Ga Si
In Si Si
Multi-Junction Cells
Fermi energy = that energy in
the photon from the specific
point in the spectrum = the
energy needed to knock the
electron from one shell to
another
7

Wafers
Wafer/Cell/Module Manufacturing
Cells
Modules
June 17, 2013
8

Companies
Soitec, France’s Intel
SolarJunction – Stanford Spinoff
Boeing SpectroLab – 6 decades of experience, satellite solar panels
Amonix – CPV module manufacturer
Fresnel Plastic Lens
III-V Semiconductor Cells
June 17, 2013
Source: NREL
9

Watt/Sq Ft
Module
SunTech
STP 280-
24Vd
SunPower
E20-327
Soitec CX-
M500
Soitec
without
Fresnel
Wattage 280 327 2,440 2,752
Area (ft^2) 19.84 17.57 94.08 84.16
W/ft^2 14.11 18.61 25.94 32.7
32% 83% 131%
June 17, 2013
10

Questions to keep in Mind
How does efficiency impact installed system prices BOS
What mayprevent the III-V multi junction cells from getting cheaper, as silicon
presented a roadblock for Mono-crystallaline?
June 17, 2013
11

AECOM
20 Exchange Place
New York, New York, 10005
Main 212 991 2100
www.aecom.com
Thank You, Questions?