The heterogeneity of the Population in Greece (A spatial approach)
The heterogeneity of the Population in Greece (A spatial approach)
The heterogeneity of the Population in Greece (A spatial approach)
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<strong>The</strong> <strong>heterogeneity</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Population</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong><br />
(A <strong>spatial</strong> <strong>approach</strong>)<br />
Byron Kotzamanis [1], Anastasia Kostaki [2] ,<br />
[1] Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses, Department <strong>of</strong> Plann<strong>in</strong>g and<br />
Regional Development, University <strong>of</strong> <strong>The</strong>ssaly, <strong>Greece</strong><br />
email: bkotz@prd.uth.gr<br />
[2] Department <strong>of</strong> Statistics, A<strong>the</strong>ns University <strong>of</strong> Economics and Bus<strong>in</strong>ess, <strong>Greece</strong> ,<br />
email: kostaki@aueb.gr<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
6 th International Conference on <strong>Population</strong> Geographies<br />
Umeå, 14-17 June 2011<br />
1
Backround<br />
‣Τhe<br />
<strong>in</strong>tense flows <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternal migration dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> post war years <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong>, comb<strong>in</strong>ed<br />
with<br />
‣selective<br />
emigration and repatriation <strong>of</strong> Grεeks<br />
liv<strong>in</strong>g abroad,<br />
and<br />
‣<strong>the</strong> massive entry <strong>of</strong> foreigners s<strong>in</strong>ce 1990,<br />
have radically transformed <strong>the</strong> post war population map <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> country.<br />
<strong>The</strong>se three phenomena led to a rapid urbanization and a substantial <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
population <strong>heterogeneity</strong>. <strong>The</strong> first <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se consequences (urbanisation(<br />
urbanisation) ) monopolized<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>terest and has received numerous research works <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> last t decades. In contrast,<br />
<strong>the</strong> second effect is much less studied.<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
2
Aim <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> work<br />
<strong>The</strong> aim <strong>of</strong> this work is, us<strong>in</strong>g data <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> last census (2001) to attempt an assessment<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>heterogeneity</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> population <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> at <strong>the</strong> lowest possible <strong>spatial</strong><br />
level (municipality) and to highlight <strong>the</strong> <strong>spatial</strong> patterns <strong>of</strong> comb<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> "game"<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> three variables:<br />
‣ <strong>in</strong>ternal migration,<br />
‣ repatriation <strong>of</strong> Greeks liv<strong>in</strong>g abroad<br />
(economic emigrants, political refugees, co-ethnics)<br />
‣ and immigration.<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
3
Data<br />
<strong>Population</strong> data for <strong>the</strong> 1034 municipalities <strong>of</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> from <strong>the</strong> 2001 census.<br />
<strong>The</strong> data concern a total <strong>of</strong> 10,934 million residents, where<br />
762.000 people were foreigners<br />
10,172 million were Greek<br />
(7% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> total population) and<br />
Greek citizens (93%).<br />
From those hav<strong>in</strong>g Greek citizenship:<br />
446.000 were born abroad (4.6% <strong>of</strong> Greeks and 4.3% <strong>of</strong> total population) and<br />
9,705 million were born <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> (95,4% <strong>of</strong> Greeks and 88,8% <strong>of</strong> total population).<br />
40% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>m<br />
<strong>the</strong>m (3,878 million) at<br />
Among Greek citizens born <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong>:<br />
at 2001 were liv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r municipality than that <strong>of</strong><br />
birth.<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
4
In order to highlight <strong>the</strong> various <strong>spatial</strong> patterns,<br />
<strong>the</strong> municipalities are classified<br />
us<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g three classification criteria<br />
‣ <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> foreigners <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> total population <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipality<br />
‣ <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> Greeks born abroad to <strong>the</strong> total population <strong>of</strong> Greeks <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
municipality<br />
‣ <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> Greeks residents, born <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r municipality to <strong>the</strong> total<br />
population <strong>of</strong> Greeks <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipality<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
5
Statistical Methodology<br />
In order to reveal <strong>the</strong> optimal group<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipalities <strong>in</strong>to homogenous<br />
groups, accord<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> three criteria considered, we use <strong>the</strong> procedure <strong>of</strong><br />
Two-step Cluster Analysis,<br />
<strong>The</strong> analysis is implemented <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> SPSS statistical package<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
6
Results<br />
Classification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipalities accord<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> foreigners<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir total population<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
7
Map 1: Classification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipalities accord<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> foreigners <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir total population<br />
Figure 1: 95% confidence <strong>in</strong>tervals for <strong>the</strong> means <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> percentages <strong>of</strong><br />
foreigners to <strong>the</strong> total population <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipality.<br />
0,25<br />
Table 1: Classification <strong>of</strong> municipalities accord<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> proportion <strong>of</strong> foreign population<br />
Cluster<br />
% <strong>of</strong><br />
foreigners<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipalities<br />
Number <strong>of</strong><br />
municipaliti<br />
es<br />
Cumulative number<br />
<strong>of</strong><br />
municipaliti<br />
es<br />
Total population<br />
0,20<br />
0,15<br />
0,10<br />
0,05<br />
0,00<br />
1<br />
Cumulative<br />
Total population<br />
2<br />
Cluster<br />
Reference L<strong>in</strong>e is <strong>the</strong> Overall Mean = ,06<br />
Number<br />
<strong>of</strong> foreigners<br />
3<br />
Cumulative<br />
number<br />
<strong>of</strong> foreigners<br />
1 16,7 - 43,9 36 36 966982 966982 171514 171514<br />
2 10,0 - 16,6 131 167 814827 1781809 100486 272000<br />
3 4,8 - 9,9 359 526 5597890 7379699 385897 657897<br />
4 0,0 - 4,7 508 1034 3554398 10934097 103916 761813<br />
Total 1034 10934097 761813<br />
Cluster<br />
% <strong>of</strong><br />
foreigners<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipalities<br />
Percentages <strong>of</strong><br />
municipalities<br />
Cumulative<br />
percentages <strong>of</strong><br />
municipalities<br />
Percentages <strong>of</strong><br />
population<br />
Cumulative<br />
percentages<br />
<strong>of</strong> population<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
Percentage <strong>of</strong><br />
foreigners<br />
Cumulative<br />
percentage <strong>of</strong><br />
foreigners<br />
4<br />
1 16,7 - 43,9 3,48 3,48 8,84 8,84 22,51 22,51<br />
2 10,0 - 16,6 12,67 16,15 7,45 16,30 13,19 35,70<br />
3 4,8 - 9,9 34,72 50,87 51,20 67,49 50,66 86,36<br />
4 0,0 - 4,7 49,13 100,00 32,51 100,00 13,64 100,00<br />
Total 100,00 100,00 100,00<br />
8
Map 1: Classification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipalities accord<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> foreigners <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir total population<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
Map 1 reflects <strong>the</strong> differential distribution <strong>of</strong> foreigners <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>Greece</strong>.<br />
In almost half <strong>of</strong> municipalities (compris<strong>in</strong>g only 1 / 3 <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> total population, Cluster 4) <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> foreigners are<br />
extremely low and well below <strong>the</strong> national average (7%).<br />
<strong>The</strong>se municipalities, generally hav<strong>in</strong>g small or medium<br />
sized population conta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g only 13% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> foreigners,<br />
while occupy<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> greater part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> country. <strong>The</strong>se are<br />
laced at most <strong>in</strong> mounta<strong>in</strong>ous and semi-mounta<strong>in</strong>ous areas.<br />
In contrast, <strong>in</strong> two o<strong>the</strong>r groups <strong>of</strong> municipalities<br />
(Clusters 1 and 2) <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> foreigners are well above <strong>the</strong><br />
national average (greater than 10%). <strong>The</strong>se municipalities<br />
conta<strong>in</strong> 1/4 <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> total population but 36% <strong>of</strong> all<br />
foreigners. <strong>The</strong>se are located <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> most economically<br />
developed areas <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> country, i.e. <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> major urban<br />
centres <strong>of</strong> cont<strong>in</strong>ental <strong>Greece</strong>, <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> coastal zone <strong>of</strong><br />
Peloponnesus, and islands, which are agricultural and/or<br />
touristy developed, as well as <strong>in</strong> areas neighbour<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Albania.<br />
9
Results<br />
Classification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipalities accord<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> Greeks born abroad<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
10
Map 2: Classification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipalities accord<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> Greeks born abroad<br />
Figure 2: 95% confidence <strong>in</strong>tervals for <strong>the</strong> means <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> percentages <strong>of</strong><br />
Greeks not born <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> to <strong>the</strong> total Greek population <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipality.<br />
0,40<br />
0,30<br />
Table 2: Classification <strong>of</strong> municipalities accord<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> percentages <strong>of</strong> Greeks not born <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> to <strong>the</strong> total Greek population <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipality<br />
Cluster<br />
% <strong>of</strong> Greeks not<br />
born <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> to<br />
<strong>the</strong> total Greek<br />
population<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipality<br />
Number<br />
<strong>of</strong> municipalities<br />
Cumulative number<br />
<strong>of</strong> municipalities<br />
Total population<br />
Cumulative<br />
total population<br />
Number<br />
<strong>of</strong><br />
Greeks not<br />
born <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong><br />
1 14,8 - 50,0 11 11 154465 154465 30892 30892<br />
Cumulativ<br />
e number<br />
<strong>of</strong> Greek<br />
not born<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong><br />
2 7,3 - 13,2 73 84 1690247 1844712 166152 197044<br />
3 2,9 - 7,2 252 336 4405730 6250442 206958 404002<br />
4 0,0 - 2,8 698 1034 3921842 10172284 62612 466614<br />
Total 1034 10172284 466614<br />
Cluster<br />
% <strong>of</strong> Greeks not born<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> to <strong>the</strong> total<br />
Greek population<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipality<br />
Percentages<br />
<strong>of</strong> municipalities<br />
Cumulative<br />
percentages<br />
<strong>of</strong> municipalities<br />
0,20<br />
0,10<br />
0,00<br />
Percentages <strong>of</strong> population<br />
Cumulative<br />
percentages<br />
<strong>of</strong><br />
population<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
1<br />
2<br />
Percentage <strong>of</strong><br />
Greeks not<br />
born <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>Greece</strong><br />
Cluster<br />
Reference L<strong>in</strong>e is <strong>the</strong> Overall Mean = ,03<br />
3<br />
Cumulative<br />
percentage <strong>of</strong><br />
Greeks not born<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong><br />
4<br />
1 14,8 - 50,0 1,06 1,06 1,52 1,52 6,62 6,62<br />
2 7,3 - 13,2 7,06 8,12 16,62 18,13 35,61 42,23<br />
3 2,9 - 7,2 24,37 32,50 43,31 61,45 44,35 86,58<br />
4 0,0 - 2,8 67,50 100,00 38,55 100,00 13,42 100,00<br />
Total 100,00 100,00 100,00<br />
11
Map 2: Classification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipalities accord<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> % Greek citizens born abroad<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
<strong>The</strong> <strong>spatial</strong> distribution <strong>of</strong> 466 thousand Greeks born<br />
abroad differs markedly from that <strong>of</strong> foreigners<br />
In <strong>the</strong> central and sou<strong>the</strong>rn ma<strong>in</strong>land <strong>Greece</strong> (as <strong>in</strong> almost<br />
all <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> island municipalities with rare exceptions) <strong>the</strong> %<br />
<strong>of</strong> Greeks born abroad (as % <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> population <strong>of</strong> Greek<br />
<strong>in</strong>habitants) are very low (Cluster 4).<br />
On <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand (Clusters 1 and 2), <strong>in</strong> an extremely<br />
small number <strong>of</strong> areas <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> Greeks born abroad are<br />
more than twice <strong>the</strong> national average. <strong>The</strong> municipalities<br />
<strong>of</strong> Clusters 1 and 2 are concentrated <strong>in</strong> two cont<strong>in</strong>ental<br />
regions: Central -Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, with<br />
rare exceptions (some municipalities <strong>of</strong> A<strong>the</strong>ns and<br />
<strong>The</strong>ssaloniki). <strong>The</strong> <strong>spatial</strong> concentration <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>se two<br />
regions <strong>of</strong> Nor<strong>the</strong>rn <strong>Greece</strong> is reasonable. From <strong>the</strong>se<br />
regions comes <strong>the</strong> vast majority <strong>of</strong> Greeks who left<br />
<strong>Greece</strong> after <strong>the</strong> World war II and <strong>the</strong>n, <strong>in</strong> around 1980,<br />
repatriated toge<strong>the</strong>r with <strong>the</strong>ir foreign born children. In<br />
addition, a large part <strong>of</strong> co-ethnics returnees from <strong>the</strong><br />
former USSR, who obta<strong>in</strong>ed Greek citizenship were also<br />
settled here (due to <strong>the</strong> latter group are <strong>the</strong> high % <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
eastern part <strong>of</strong> <strong>The</strong>ssaloniki as well as <strong>in</strong> some<br />
municipalities <strong>of</strong> A<strong>the</strong>ns agglomeration).<br />
12
Results<br />
Classification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipalities accord<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> Greeks born <strong>in</strong><br />
ano<strong>the</strong>r municipality to <strong>the</strong> Greek population <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipality born<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong>.<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
13
Map 3:Classification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipalities accord<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> Greek citizens born <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>Greece</strong> but liv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> 2001 <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r municipality than <strong>the</strong> municipality <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir birth<br />
Figure 3: 95% confidence <strong>in</strong>tervals for <strong>the</strong> means <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> percentages <strong>of</strong> Greeks<br />
born <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r municipality to <strong>the</strong> total born <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong>-Greeks <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
municipality.<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
14
Table 3: Classification <strong>of</strong> municipalities accord<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> percentages <strong>of</strong> Greeks born <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r municipality <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> to <strong>the</strong><br />
total population <strong>of</strong> Greeks born <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipality.<br />
Cluster<br />
% <strong>of</strong> Greeks<br />
born <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />
municipality <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>Greece</strong> to <strong>the</strong><br />
total population<br />
<strong>of</strong> Greeks born <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>Greece</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
municipality<br />
Number<br />
<strong>of</strong><br />
municipalities<br />
Cumulative<br />
number <strong>of</strong><br />
municipalities<br />
Total<br />
population<br />
Cumulative<br />
total population<br />
Number <strong>of</strong><br />
Greeks born <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />
municipality<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> to <strong>the</strong> total<br />
population <strong>of</strong> Greeks<br />
born <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong><br />
Cumulativnumber<br />
<strong>of</strong> Greeks born<br />
<strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />
municipality <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong><br />
to <strong>the</strong><br />
total population<br />
<strong>of</strong> Greeks born<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong><br />
1 57,2 – 100,0 91 91 2326069 2326069 814615 814615<br />
2 41,9 – 57,0 83 174 2592123 4918192 1287843 2102458<br />
3 26,8 -40,8 172 346 1992645 6910837 1308583 3411041<br />
4 13,3 – 26,7 437 783 878640 7789477 85382 3496423<br />
5 0,0 – 13,4 251 1034 1916193 9705670 380393 3876816<br />
Total 1034 9705670 3876816<br />
Cluster<br />
% <strong>of</strong> Greeks<br />
born <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />
municipality<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong><br />
to <strong>the</strong> total<br />
population <strong>of</strong><br />
Greeks<br />
born <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
municipality<br />
Percentages<br />
<strong>of</strong><br />
municipalities<br />
Cumulative<br />
percentages<br />
<strong>of</strong><br />
municipalities<br />
Percentages<br />
<strong>of</strong> population<br />
Cumulative<br />
percentages<br />
<strong>of</strong> population<br />
Percentage <strong>of</strong><br />
Greeks born<br />
<strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r municipality<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong><br />
to <strong>the</strong> total population<br />
<strong>of</strong> Greeks<br />
born <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>Greece</strong><br />
Cumulative percentage<br />
Number <strong>of</strong> Greeks<br />
born <strong>in</strong><br />
ano<strong>the</strong>r municipality<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> to <strong>the</strong><br />
total population<br />
<strong>of</strong> Greeks born<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong><br />
1 57,2 – 100,0 8,80 8,80 23,97 23,97 21,01 21,01<br />
2 41,9 – 57,0 8,03 16,83 26,71 50,67 33,22 54,23<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
3 26,8 -40,8 16,63 33,46 20,53 71,20 33,75 87,99<br />
4 13,3 – 26,7 42,26 75,73 9,05 100,00 2,20 90,19<br />
5 0,0 – 13,4 24,27 100,00 19,74 100,00 9,81 100,00<br />
Total 100,00 100,00 100,00<br />
15
Map 3:Classification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipalities accord<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> Greek citizens born <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>Greece</strong> but liv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> 2001 <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r municipality than <strong>the</strong> municipality <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir birth<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> total population <strong>of</strong> 10.934 million 10.172<br />
million (93%) were Greek citizens and <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se, 9.705<br />
million were born <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> (95.4% and 88.8% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
total population respectively).<br />
Of <strong>the</strong>se, a very high percentage, (40% -3.878 million)<br />
were liv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> 2001 <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r municipality than that <strong>of</strong><br />
birth.<br />
But what is <strong>the</strong> weight <strong>of</strong> this group to <strong>the</strong> total<br />
population <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Greek <strong>in</strong>habitants <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
municipalities concerned?<br />
In <strong>the</strong> first two groups (Clusters 1 and 2) more than 42<br />
out <strong>of</strong> 100 Greek residents <strong>in</strong> 2011 were born <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />
municipality.<br />
<strong>The</strong> units <strong>of</strong> this group are: i) relatively large sized and ii)<br />
located at most <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> metropolitan areas <strong>of</strong> A<strong>the</strong>ns and<br />
<strong>The</strong>ssaloniki, which also reta<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>the</strong>ir native population<br />
and attracted <strong>the</strong> vast majority <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternal migrants <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
post war period.<br />
16
Map 3:Classification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipalities accord<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> Greek citizens born<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> but liv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> 2001 <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r municipality than <strong>the</strong> municipality <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
birth<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
In contrast <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> units <strong>of</strong> Clusters 4 and 5 <strong>the</strong><br />
proportion <strong>of</strong> Greeks born <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r municipality than<br />
<strong>the</strong> residence one <strong>in</strong> 2001 is very low (less than 27%).<br />
<strong>The</strong>se municipalities, usually conta<strong>in</strong> small populations<br />
as <strong>the</strong>y have special geo-morphological features (mostly<br />
mounta<strong>in</strong>ous or semi mounta<strong>in</strong>ous, with <strong>in</strong>tense<br />
agricultural activity <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> past) with no dynamic urban<br />
centers. In addition, <strong>the</strong>y became <strong>the</strong> ma<strong>in</strong> feeders <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
successive waves <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>tense <strong>in</strong>ternal migration <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> first<br />
post war period (1940 -1980).<br />
F<strong>in</strong>ally, <strong>in</strong> a third, relatively small group <strong>of</strong><br />
municipalities (Cluster 3), <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> non native residents<br />
are below <strong>the</strong> national average, rang<strong>in</strong>g from 27% to<br />
41%.<br />
In <strong>the</strong> vast majority <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se municipalities, <strong>the</strong>re is a<br />
small or medium city center (usually <strong>the</strong> capital <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
county) and, <strong>in</strong> contrast to <strong>the</strong> municipalities <strong>of</strong> clusters 1<br />
and 2 (which ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong>ed a large proportion <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
natives and at <strong>the</strong> same time <strong>the</strong>y received <strong>the</strong> largest part<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> post war rural exodus from <strong>the</strong> rest <strong>of</strong> <strong>Greece</strong>) <strong>the</strong><br />
municipalities <strong>of</strong> cluster 3 were both poles <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>s and outs<br />
s<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong>ir urban centers attracted a part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> exodus<br />
from <strong>the</strong>ir immediate <strong>in</strong>land.<br />
17
Results<br />
Classification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipalities accord<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> syn<strong>the</strong>sis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
population based on all three criteria considered<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
18
Map 4: <strong>The</strong> municipality pr<strong>of</strong>iles accord<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> syn<strong>the</strong>sis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir population<br />
<strong>in</strong> 2001 census<br />
Figure 4.1: 95%<br />
confidence <strong>in</strong>tervals for<br />
<strong>the</strong> means <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
percentages <strong>of</strong> foreigners<br />
<strong>in</strong> each municipality to<br />
<strong>the</strong> total population <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> municipality (three<br />
criteria cluster<strong>in</strong>g).<br />
Figure 4.2: 95%<br />
confidence <strong>in</strong>tervals for<br />
<strong>the</strong> means <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
percentages <strong>of</strong> Greeks<br />
not born <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> <strong>in</strong><br />
each municipality, to <strong>the</strong><br />
total Greek population <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> municipality (three<br />
criteria cluster<strong>in</strong>g).<br />
Figure 4.3 : 95%<br />
confidence <strong>in</strong>tervals for<br />
<strong>the</strong> means <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
percentages <strong>of</strong> Greeks<br />
born <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />
municipality, to <strong>the</strong><br />
total born <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong>-<br />
Greeks <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
municipality (three<br />
criteria cluster<strong>in</strong>g).<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
19
Foreigners Greek citizens Greeks citizens born <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>Greece</strong><br />
Greeks citizens born<br />
abroad<br />
Greek citizens born <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>Greece</strong> and liv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> a<br />
different municipality<br />
than <strong>the</strong> municipality <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong>ir birth<br />
Greeks citizens born <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>Greece</strong> and liv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
same municipality than <strong>the</strong><br />
municipality <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir birth<br />
C<br />
l<br />
u<br />
s<br />
t<br />
e<br />
r<br />
s<br />
Numbe<br />
r<br />
<strong>of</strong><br />
munici<br />
palitie<br />
Total<br />
populati<br />
on<br />
(.000)<br />
% % <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong><br />
total<br />
popu<br />
latio<br />
n<br />
(.000) % <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong><br />
total<br />
popu<br />
latio<br />
n<br />
(.000) % <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong><br />
total<br />
populat<br />
ion<br />
% <strong>of</strong><br />
Gree<br />
k<br />
citize<br />
ns<br />
(.000) %<br />
<strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong><br />
tota<br />
l<br />
pop<br />
ulat<br />
ion<br />
% <strong>of</strong><br />
Gree<br />
k<br />
citize<br />
ns<br />
(.000) % <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong><br />
total<br />
pop<br />
ulati<br />
on<br />
% <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong><br />
popu<br />
latio<br />
n <strong>of</strong><br />
Gree<br />
ks<br />
citize<br />
ns<br />
born<br />
<strong>in</strong><br />
Gree<br />
ce<br />
(.000) % <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong><br />
total<br />
popu<br />
latio<br />
n<br />
1 117,0 3917,0 35,8 358,3 9,2 3558,7 90,9 3364,5 85,9 94,5 194,2 5,0 5,5 1981,6 50,6 58,9 1382,9 35,3 41,1<br />
2 54,0 1042,1 9,5 62,9 6,0 979,1 94,0 855,4 82,1 87,4 123,8 11,9 12,7 407,5 39,1 47,6 447,8 43,0 52,4<br />
3 224,0 1537,5 14,1 164,8 10,7 1372,8 89,3 1339,1 87,1 97,6 33,7 2,2 2,5 387,3 25,2 28,9 951,8 61,9 71,1<br />
4 189,0 2680,5 24,5 109,9 4,1 2570,5 95,9 2476,9 92,4 96,4 93,6 3,5 3,6 860,8 32,1 34,8 1616,2 60,3 65,3<br />
5 450,0 1757,1 16,1 65,9 3,8 1691,2 96,3 1669,9 95,0 98,7 21,0 1,2 1,3 239,7 13,6 14,4 1430,2 81,4 85,7<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
% <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong><br />
popu<br />
latio<br />
n <strong>of</strong><br />
Gree<br />
ks<br />
citize<br />
ns<br />
born<br />
<strong>in</strong><br />
Gree<br />
ce<br />
T<br />
o<br />
1034,0 10934,1 100,0 761,8 7,0 10172,3 93,0 9705,7 88,8 95,4 466,6 4,3 4,6 3876,8 35,5 39,9 5828,9 53,3 60,1<br />
20
Map 4: <strong>The</strong> municipality pr<strong>of</strong>iles accord<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> syn<strong>the</strong>sis <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong>ir population <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> 2001 census<br />
<strong>The</strong> statistical analysis allowed us to classify <strong>the</strong> sections<br />
exam<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> five major groups (Map 4).<br />
<strong>The</strong> first group (Cluster 1) is extremely heterogeneous. It ga<strong>the</strong>rs<br />
11% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> municipalities <strong>in</strong>habited by 36% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> total population<br />
but where only 35 out <strong>of</strong> 100 residents <strong>in</strong> 2001 are natives. This<br />
group consists ma<strong>in</strong>ly <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> majority <strong>of</strong> municipalities <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> two<br />
largest metropolitan areas <strong>of</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> (A<strong>the</strong>ns and <strong>The</strong>ssaloniki)<br />
which have experienced an explosive post war population growth,<br />
and secondarily by a small number <strong>of</strong> municipalities, dispersed all<br />
over <strong>Greece</strong> (but mostly <strong>in</strong> nor<strong>the</strong>rn -western part <strong>of</strong> cont<strong>in</strong>ental and<br />
coastal Crete).<br />
<strong>The</strong> 54 municipalities that constitute <strong>the</strong> second group (Cluster 2)<br />
are also heterogeneous, but <strong>in</strong> a lesser extend than those <strong>of</strong> Cluster 1.<br />
<strong>The</strong>y are characterized by a particularly high % <strong>of</strong> Greeks born<br />
abroad and a relatively low proportion <strong>of</strong> natives, while <strong>the</strong><br />
proportion <strong>of</strong> foreign residents is just below <strong>the</strong> national average.<br />
This group consists ma<strong>in</strong>ly <strong>of</strong> medium-sized municipalities <strong>in</strong> central<br />
- eastern Macedonia and Thrace, which experienced a strong<br />
emigration, a less <strong>in</strong>tense rural exodus and a limited attraction for<br />
foreigners after 1990 (6% <strong>of</strong> total population to 2001). <strong>The</strong> huge %<br />
<strong>of</strong> Greek <strong>in</strong>habitants born abroad (12%) can be attributed to <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>stallation <strong>of</strong> a large part <strong>of</strong> natives repatriated who came toge<strong>the</strong>r<br />
with <strong>the</strong>ir family members born abroad. In addition, <strong>the</strong> relative high<br />
proportion <strong>of</strong> persons born <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r municipality (43% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Greek population) can be attributed to <strong>the</strong> fact that <strong>the</strong>se<br />
municipalities were attractive to people from <strong>the</strong>ir rural h<strong>in</strong>terland.<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
21
Map 4: <strong>The</strong> municipality pr<strong>of</strong>iles accord<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> syn<strong>the</strong>sis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
population <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> 2001 census<br />
<strong>The</strong> third group exhibit a peculiarity. <strong>The</strong> municipalities <strong>of</strong> this<br />
group (38% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> total) comprise a very small percentage <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> population <strong>of</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> (just 14%) but 1 out <strong>of</strong> 9 residents <strong>in</strong><br />
average is foreigner. In addition, <strong>the</strong> percentage <strong>of</strong> Greek<br />
residents born abroad is m<strong>in</strong>imal, while people born <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>se<br />
municipalities represent 70% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> total population. <strong>The</strong> units<br />
that make up this group are ma<strong>in</strong>ly concentrated <strong>in</strong> central and<br />
sou<strong>the</strong>rn <strong>Greece</strong> and <strong>the</strong> islands (Ionian, Cyclades, Crete) and<br />
secondarily near <strong>the</strong> border with Albania (Epirus and western<br />
Macedonia).<br />
With <strong>the</strong> exception <strong>of</strong> areas border<strong>in</strong>g Albania, <strong>the</strong> majority <strong>of</strong><br />
municipalities <strong>of</strong> this group are lowland or coastal usually<br />
characterized by ei<strong>the</strong>r modern agricultural activities<br />
(especially <strong>The</strong>ssaly, Crete, sou<strong>the</strong>rn and eastern Peloponnese)<br />
or by a strong tourism specialization (Cyclades, Ionian, <strong>Greece</strong>,<br />
Macedonia) or even by a high concentration <strong>of</strong> employment <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> secondary sector (municipalities around <strong>the</strong> A<strong>the</strong>ns<br />
agglomeration). Those units had not experienced strongly<br />
emigration, while restra<strong>in</strong>ed -due to <strong>the</strong> above qualifications- a<br />
big part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> native population (see <strong>the</strong> low percentages <strong>of</strong><br />
both Greeks born abroad as well as residents born <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />
municipality).<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
22
Map 4: <strong>The</strong> municipality pr<strong>of</strong>iles accord<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> syn<strong>the</strong>sis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir population<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> 2001 census<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
<strong>The</strong> municipalities <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> fourth group (20% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> total)<br />
which account <strong>the</strong> ¼ <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> total population (Cluster 4)<br />
are relatively homogeneous.<br />
<strong>The</strong> % <strong>of</strong> foreigners are very low and more than 96 out <strong>of</strong><br />
100 residents are Greeks (almost all <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>m born <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>Greece</strong>), while <strong>the</strong> percentage <strong>of</strong> Greek natives are<br />
relatively high (63%). <strong>The</strong>se units are placed at most <strong>in</strong><br />
nor<strong>the</strong>rn <strong>Greece</strong> (Macedonia and Thrace). <strong>The</strong>y have<br />
some common features with <strong>the</strong> municipalities <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
second group (high emigration and a less <strong>in</strong>tense rural<br />
exodus). However <strong>the</strong>y differ from <strong>the</strong>m as: a) <strong>the</strong>y have<br />
a lower proportion <strong>of</strong> foreigners (4% <strong>of</strong> total population)<br />
and b) <strong>the</strong>y are less attractive to <strong>the</strong> population <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
rural h<strong>in</strong>terlands as well to <strong>the</strong> repatriated people<br />
orig<strong>in</strong>ated from <strong>the</strong>m.<br />
23
Map 4: <strong>The</strong> municipality pr<strong>of</strong>iles accord<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> syn<strong>the</strong>sis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir population<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> 2001 census<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
<strong>The</strong> fifth and largest group (43% <strong>of</strong> municipalities, but<br />
compris<strong>in</strong>g only 16% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> total population) is <strong>the</strong> most<br />
homogenous as more than 96% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir population are<br />
Greeks, 95 out <strong>of</strong> 100 residents are born <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong>, and<br />
from <strong>the</strong>m <strong>the</strong> vast majority (86%) are natives.<br />
This group consists <strong>of</strong> small municipalities <strong>in</strong> ma<strong>in</strong>land<br />
mounta<strong>in</strong>ous and semi-mounta<strong>in</strong>ous central and sou<strong>the</strong>rn<br />
<strong>Greece</strong>, and <strong>the</strong>n <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>sular municipalities (Ionian Islands,<br />
Aegean islands) and municipalities <strong>in</strong> central and sou<strong>the</strong>rn<br />
Crete. <strong>The</strong> units <strong>of</strong> this group are out <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> ma<strong>in</strong> axis <strong>of</strong><br />
country development.<br />
<strong>The</strong>se rural municipalities experienced significant post war<br />
rural exodus and at <strong>the</strong> same time <strong>the</strong>y were not attractive<br />
(low % <strong>of</strong> Greeks and foreigners born abroad, a limited<br />
number <strong>of</strong> people who settled <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>m but were born<br />
elsewhere <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong>).<br />
24
Conclud<strong>in</strong>g remarks I<br />
<strong>The</strong> municipalities <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong>, beyond <strong>the</strong> fact that <strong>the</strong>y have different population sizes and<br />
characteristics (mounta<strong>in</strong>s-lowland, urban-suburban-rural), <strong>the</strong>y also exhibit differences <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong>ir population syn<strong>the</strong>ses due to differentiated weights <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> three ma<strong>in</strong> population groups<br />
exam<strong>in</strong>ed.<br />
‣Internal migrants<br />
‣Foreigners<br />
‣Greeks born abroad<br />
<strong>The</strong>se groups have different demographic, educational, economic and cultural<br />
characteristics.<br />
This work aims to assess <strong>the</strong> differences <strong>of</strong> population syn<strong>the</strong>ses at municipality level us<strong>in</strong>g<br />
data <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> last census (2001). Utiliz<strong>in</strong>g statistical classification techniques it highlights<br />
patterns <strong>of</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>iles and thus allow <strong>the</strong> creation <strong>of</strong> typologies, which can be <strong>in</strong>terpreted based<br />
on demographic, socio-political and economic developments <strong>in</strong> recent decades.<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
25
Conclud<strong>in</strong>g remarks II<br />
We conclude from <strong>the</strong> f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> analysis that most heterogeneous populations are,<br />
as expected, those <strong>in</strong> almost all municipalities <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> greatest Agglomeration <strong>of</strong> A<strong>the</strong>ns<br />
and <strong>The</strong>ssaloniki which experienced a huge population <strong>in</strong>crease dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> post war<br />
years.<br />
In a lesser degree, heterogeneous are also populations<br />
a) <strong>of</strong> a part <strong>of</strong> Macedonia and Thrace (where 1 out <strong>of</strong> 2 Greek citizens and residents was<br />
born <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r municipality while 1 out <strong>of</strong> 8 was born abroad) and<br />
b) <strong>of</strong> a large group <strong>of</strong> municipalities (38% <strong>of</strong> all) consist<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> relatively small units <strong>of</strong><br />
lowland or/ and coastal areas concentrated <strong>in</strong> central and sou<strong>the</strong>rn <strong>Greece</strong> (as well as<br />
near Albania). In <strong>the</strong>se units, , <strong>the</strong> % <strong>of</strong> foreigners are extremely high (10%), but Greeks<br />
born abroad are few, while natives form <strong>the</strong> huge majority <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir residents (almost<br />
70% <strong>of</strong> total population).<br />
In contrast, most <strong>of</strong> small-sized municipalities, placed <strong>in</strong> ma<strong>in</strong>land highland areas <strong>of</strong><br />
upland central and sou<strong>the</strong>rn <strong>Greece</strong> (and secondarily <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> islands), are <strong>the</strong> most<br />
homogenous s<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong>ir populations almost entirely consist <strong>of</strong> natives.<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
26
Fur<strong>the</strong>r research<br />
Of particular <strong>in</strong>terest is a fur<strong>the</strong>r analysis based on some additional criteria <strong>of</strong> those<br />
municipalities with less homogeneous population syn<strong>the</strong>ses s<strong>in</strong>ce equally high<br />
percentages <strong>of</strong> anyone <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> three population categories considered, may hide clearly<br />
differ<strong>in</strong>g patterns. In particular, it will be <strong>in</strong>terest<strong>in</strong>g to take <strong>in</strong>to consideration;<br />
a) Sex and age <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> various population groups<br />
b) <strong>The</strong> foreigners’ country <strong>of</strong> birth by group<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>m <strong>in</strong>to 4 groups (more developed,<br />
Balkans, ex-socialist and less developed countries),<br />
c) <strong>The</strong> orig<strong>in</strong> <strong>of</strong> Greeks born abroad separat<strong>in</strong>g those born <strong>in</strong> developed western<br />
countries from those born <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> former socialist countries (political refugees and coethnics),<br />
d) <strong>The</strong> orig<strong>in</strong> <strong>of</strong> Greeks born <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong> and liv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> an o<strong>the</strong>r municipality than <strong>the</strong><br />
municipality <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir birth, dist<strong>in</strong>guish<strong>in</strong>g those who were born <strong>in</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />
municipality <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> same agglomeration (<strong>in</strong>tra city mobility) from <strong>the</strong> rest.<br />
F<strong>in</strong>ally, it should be <strong>in</strong>terest<strong>in</strong>g to compare data <strong>of</strong> 2001 census with those <strong>of</strong> 2011,<br />
tak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to consideration some additional criteria as <strong>the</strong> dist<strong>in</strong>ction <strong>of</strong> foreigners<br />
depend<strong>in</strong>g on country <strong>of</strong> birth (s<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> last decade about 20% <strong>of</strong> births <strong>in</strong> <strong>Greece</strong><br />
were from foreign mo<strong>the</strong>rs), as well as <strong>the</strong> dist<strong>in</strong>ction <strong>of</strong> those hav<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> Greek<br />
citizenship accord<strong>in</strong>g to whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong>y acquired it through naturalization or from birth.<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses<br />
27
28<br />
Thank you!<br />
Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Demographic and Social Analyses