poster - International Conference of Agricultural Engineering
poster - International Conference of Agricultural Engineering poster - International Conference of Agricultural Engineering
Development of a Conceptual Model for Drought Analysis (Case Study: Zayandeh-Rud Basin) Hamidbabaei*, Shahab Araghinejad University of Tehran, Deparetment of water respurce manegement, karaj, 31587-77871, Iran *Corresponding author. E-mail: hamidbabaei1@gmail.com Abstrat The study was intended at devising a suitable technique for assessment of vulnerability to drought. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) develops a framework to evaluate the relative priorities of assessment drought based on a set of preferences, criteria and indicators for the areas. The objective of this study was to apply of AHP with Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques using the drought indices and hydrological factors for assessment of regional drought in the Zayande-Rud basin, Iran. Therefore, the used indicators include the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), water demand of watershed and groundwater balance. The results showed that this method provides a comprehensive idea of drought vulnerability by conducting comparative analysis among drought indices and hydrological factors in the spatial and temporal domains. Key words: The Analytic Hierarchy Process, Geographic Information System, SPI, PDSI, SWSI 1. Introduction Drought is one of the most important natural disasters that show its influences slowly by time. Drought commonly develops with no clear warning and without identifiable borders, and leads to agriculture losses of billions of dollars annually (Kagon, 2000). Various methods and indices have been developed by many scientists (Palmer 1965, Gibbs & Maher 1967, Shafer & Dezman 1982, McKee et al., 1993) for drought analysis using different drought-causative and drought responsive parameters such as rainfall, soil moisture, potential evapotranspiration, groundwater and surface water levels. These drought indices often have little correlation among themselves. Therefore, it is quite common that when one drought index identifies drought at a particular place, another drought index indicates a normal condition at the same place and time. In this study combination of bivariate drought indices (SPI, PDSI and SWSI) and other factors (Groundwater Balance, Water Demand) for presented a Conceptual Model for drought assessment of regional drought in the Zayande-Rud basin, Iran. 2. Material and Methods
2.1 Case study The Zayandeh-Rud basin is located in central part of Iran with the area of 41,500 km2 (Fig. 1). The dominant climate in this basin is arid or semiarid climate. The averages of precipitation are about 1500 mm per year, most precipitation occurs as snowfall during December to April. Large economical and social damages accrue annually because of the widespread droughts in this region. Thus, the lack of current water causes limit of available amount of water for using economical options. In this paper, drought trends in the basin have been investigated from 1668 to 2007 years. FIGURE 1 Zayandeh-Rud basin, Iran 2.2 The AHP method The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) first developed by Saaty (1980) and used in different a multi-criteria decision problem. The process makes it possible to incorporate judgments on qualitative and quantitative aspects criteria. The AHP method is based on three principles: first, structure and dominance of the hierarchy; second, comparative judgment of the alternatives and the criteria, sub-criteria, sub sub-criteria and so forth; third, synthesis of the priorities for estimating the consistency ratio. In the literature, AHP, has been widely used in solving many complicated decision-making (Banai, 1993). 2.3 Conceptual framework The six parcels in the Zayandeh-Rud basin are represented in a raster GIS. The parcels are determined to evaluate drought assessment with regard to four criteria (meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and socioeconomic drought) and five sub-criteria. The decision problem includes ranking the alternative parcels based on drought vulnerability. The AHP method was used to weight the factors. Developing a hierarchal structure for the decision
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Development <strong>of</strong> a Conceptual Model for Drought Analysis<br />
(Case Study: Zayandeh-Rud Basin)<br />
Hamidbabaei*, Shahab Araghinejad<br />
University <strong>of</strong> Tehran, Deparetment <strong>of</strong> water respurce manegement, karaj, 31587-77871, Iran<br />
*Corresponding author. E-mail: hamidbabaei1@gmail.com<br />
Abstrat<br />
The study was intended at devising a suitable technique for assessment <strong>of</strong> vulnerability to<br />
drought. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) develops a framework to evaluate the relative<br />
priorities <strong>of</strong> assessment drought based on a set <strong>of</strong> preferences, criteria and indicators for the<br />
areas. The objective <strong>of</strong> this study was to apply <strong>of</strong> AHP with Geographic Information System<br />
(GIS) techniques using the drought indices and hydrological factors for assessment <strong>of</strong> regional<br />
drought in the Zayande-Rud basin, Iran. Therefore, the used indicators include the Palmer<br />
Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), Standardized Precipitation<br />
Index (SPI), water demand <strong>of</strong> watershed and groundwater balance. The results showed that this<br />
method provides a comprehensive idea <strong>of</strong> drought vulnerability by conducting comparative<br />
analysis among drought indices and hydrological factors in the spatial and temporal domains.<br />
Key words: The Analytic Hierarchy Process, Geographic Information System, SPI, PDSI, SWSI<br />
1. Introduction<br />
Drought is one <strong>of</strong> the most important natural disasters that show its influences slowly by time.<br />
Drought commonly develops with no clear warning and without identifiable borders, and leads to<br />
agriculture losses <strong>of</strong> billions <strong>of</strong> dollars annually (Kagon, 2000). Various methods and indices<br />
have been developed by many scientists (Palmer 1965, Gibbs & Maher 1967, Shafer & Dezman<br />
1982, McKee et al., 1993) for drought analysis using different drought-causative and drought<br />
responsive parameters such as rainfall, soil moisture, potential evapotranspiration, groundwater<br />
and surface water levels. These drought indices <strong>of</strong>ten have little correlation among themselves.<br />
Therefore, it is quite common that when one drought index identifies drought at a particular<br />
place, another drought index indicates a normal condition at the same place and time. In this<br />
study combination <strong>of</strong> bivariate drought indices (SPI, PDSI and SWSI) and other factors<br />
(Groundwater Balance, Water Demand) for presented a Conceptual Model for drought<br />
assessment <strong>of</strong> regional drought in the Zayande-Rud basin, Iran.<br />
2. Material and Methods
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