poster - International Conference of Agricultural Engineering

poster - International Conference of Agricultural Engineering poster - International Conference of Agricultural Engineering

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The data in Fig. 5 shows that the REIC was better in 2000s than in 1970s as a result of more effective rainfall and less crop evapotranspiration. a) 1971-1980 (b) 1981-1990 (c) 1991-2000 (d) 2001-2010 Figure 5: REIC by decade from 1971 to 2010. ( 3.2. Changes in water balance in the future By the predictions of the SRES A1B scenario, annual mean rainfall will decrease in the 2040s compared with the 2000s, while a significant rise in annual mean temperature might result in an increase in crop evapotranspiration. Fig. 6 shows increases of about 16.6% and 7.2% in AET and IR, respectively. As for the predicted REIC, the improved trend over the past 40 years would reverse. a) Rainfall (b) AET (c) IR (d) REIC Figure 6: Water balance and REIC during the period from 2041 to 2050 under a climate change scenario, A1B. ( 4. Summary and Discussion This study proposes a cell-based simple water balance model for evaluating the irrigation vulnerability of paddy fields. Several vulnerability indices such as CWSR, AWBR, and REIC were designed to express changes in time and location. Simulation and statistics using observed climate data showed that water balance in South Korea has improved over the last four decades. Climate variation predicted by the SRES A1B scenario was also examined. This study is on-going, and further work will be carried out as follows: a) the construction of a cell-based runoff model, b) vulnerability assessment using RPC scenarios, c) the verification of irrigation vulnerability indices, and d) modification for global-scale application.

Acknowledgments This work was carried out with the support of the “Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science & Technology Development (Project No. PJ0083352012)” of the Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea. References Antwi-Agyei, P., Fraser, E. D. G., Andrew, J. D., Stringer, L. C., & Simelton, E. (2012). Mapping the vulnerability of crop production to drought in Ghana using rainfall, yield and socioeconomic data. Applied Geography, 32, 324-334. Brown, C. & Hansen, J. W. (2008). Agricultural Water Management and Climate Risk. Report to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. IRI Tech. Rep. No. 08-01 (pp. 19). New York: International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades. Eakin, H., and Luers, A. L. (2006). Assessing the vulnerability of social-environmental systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 31, 365-394. Luers, A. L., Lobell, D. B., Sklar, L. S., Addams, C. L., & Matson, A. P. (2003). A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico. Global Environmental Change, 13, 255-267. Fűssel, H. M. (2010). How inequitable is the global distribution of responsibility, capability, and vulnerability to climate change: A comprehensive indicator-based assessment. Global Environmental Change, 20, 597-611. Hong, E. M., Choi, J. Y., Lee, S. H., Yoo, S. H., & Kang, M. S. (2009). Estimation of paddy rice evapotranspiration considering climate change using LARS-WG. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, 51(3), 25–35 (in Korean). IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Jang, M. W., Chung, H. W., & Choi, J. Y. (2004). Development a single reservoir agricultural drought evaluation model for paddy. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, 46(3), 17-30 (in Korean). Jun, K. S., Chung, E. S., Sung, J. Y., & Lee, K. S. (2011). Development of spatial water resources vulnerability index considering climate change impacts. Science of the Total Environment, 409, 5228-5242. Lee, N. H. (1988). Simulating daily operation of water management system of irrigation districts. Ph.D. thesis. Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea (in Korean). MFAFF (Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries) & KRCC (Korean Rural Community Corporation) (2011). Statistical yearbook of land and water development for agriculture. Uiwang: Korean Rural Community Corporation. Perveen, S., & James, L. A. (2011). Scale invariance of water stress and scarcity indicators: Facilitating cross-scale comparisons of water resources vulnerability. Applied Geography, 31, 321-328. Yoo, S. H., Choi, J. Y., & Jang, M. W. (2008). Estimation of design water requirement using FAO Penman-Monteith and optimal probability distribution function in South Korea. Agricultural Water Management, 95, 845–853. .

Acknowledgments<br />

This work was carried out with the support <strong>of</strong> the “Cooperative Research Program for<br />

Agriculture Science & Technology Development (Project No. PJ0083352012)” <strong>of</strong> the Rural<br />

Development Administration, Republic <strong>of</strong> Korea.<br />

References<br />

Antwi-Agyei, P., Fraser, E. D. G., Andrew, J. D., Stringer, L. C., & Simelton, E. (2012).<br />

Mapping the vulnerability <strong>of</strong> crop production to drought in Ghana using rainfall, yield and<br />

socioeconomic data. Applied Geography, 32, 324-334.<br />

Brown, C. & Hansen, J. W. (2008). <strong>Agricultural</strong> Water Management and Climate Risk. Report<br />

to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. IRI Tech. Rep. No. 08-01 (pp. 19). New York:<br />

<strong>International</strong> Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades.<br />

Eakin, H., and Luers, A. L. (2006). Assessing the vulnerability <strong>of</strong> social-environmental<br />

systems. Annual Review <strong>of</strong> Environment and Resources, 31, 365-394.<br />

Luers, A. L., Lobell, D. B., Sklar, L. S., Addams, C. L., & Matson, A. P. (2003). A method for<br />

quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system <strong>of</strong> the Yaqui Valley, Mexico.<br />

Global Environmental Change, 13, 255-267.<br />

Fűssel, H. M. (2010). How inequitable is the global distribution <strong>of</strong> responsibility, capability,<br />

and vulnerability to climate change: A comprehensive indicator-based assessment. Global<br />

Environmental Change, 20, 597-611.<br />

Hong, E. M., Choi, J. Y., Lee, S. H., Yoo, S. H., & Kang, M. S. (2009). Estimation <strong>of</strong> paddy<br />

rice evapotranspiration considering climate change using LARS-WG. Journal <strong>of</strong> the Korean<br />

Society <strong>of</strong> <strong>Agricultural</strong> Engineers, 51(3), 25–35 (in Korean).<br />

IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.<br />

Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.<br />

Jang, M. W., Chung, H. W., & Choi, J. Y. (2004). Development a single reservoir agricultural<br />

drought evaluation model for paddy. Journal <strong>of</strong> the Korean Society <strong>of</strong> <strong>Agricultural</strong> Engineers,<br />

46(3), 17-30 (in Korean).<br />

Jun, K. S., Chung, E. S., Sung, J. Y., & Lee, K. S. (2011). Development <strong>of</strong> spatial water<br />

resources vulnerability index considering climate change impacts. Science <strong>of</strong> the Total<br />

Environment, 409, 5228-5242.<br />

Lee, N. H. (1988). Simulating daily operation <strong>of</strong> water management system <strong>of</strong> irrigation<br />

districts. Ph.D. thesis. Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic <strong>of</strong> Korea (in Korean).<br />

MFAFF (Ministry <strong>of</strong> Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries) & KRCC (Korean Rural<br />

Community Corporation) (2011). Statistical yearbook <strong>of</strong> land and water development for<br />

agriculture. Uiwang: Korean Rural Community Corporation.<br />

Perveen, S., & James, L. A. (2011). Scale invariance <strong>of</strong> water stress and scarcity indicators:<br />

Facilitating cross-scale comparisons <strong>of</strong> water resources vulnerability. Applied Geography, 31,<br />

321-328.<br />

Yoo, S. H., Choi, J. Y., & Jang, M. W. (2008). Estimation <strong>of</strong> design water requirement using<br />

FAO Penman-Monteith and optimal probability distribution function in South Korea.<br />

<strong>Agricultural</strong> Water Management, 95, 845–853.<br />

.

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