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poster - International Conference of Agricultural Engineering

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The probability <strong>of</strong> concentration <strong>of</strong> greater than 1 mg/L decreased with distance and shows<br />

almost the same value between MCS results and MLS-RSM results. Comparing the results<br />

by estimation method <strong>of</strong> PDF, the results show different value at each distance.<br />

5. Conclusions<br />

In this study, to reliable risk assessment <strong>of</strong> groundwater pollution, the flow <strong>of</strong> Benzene<br />

through groundwater considering uncertainties <strong>of</strong> K and Koc<br />

is analyzed. The PDF <strong>of</strong><br />

random variables can easily be estimated using Hermite polynomials and transformed into<br />

space <strong>of</strong> standard normal random variable. To uncertainty analysis <strong>of</strong> Benzene transport,<br />

MLS-RSM is performed and the results are compared with MCS results. MLS-RSM gives the<br />

improvemant in computational efficiency <strong>of</strong> probability analysis and can achieve results close<br />

to accuracy <strong>of</strong> MCS with a sample size <strong>of</strong> 100,000. The probability analysis results are<br />

directly influenced by PDF <strong>of</strong> random variables and therefore by estimating the actual PDF<br />

using Hermite polynomials could derive a more accurate analysis results.<br />

References<br />

Baalousha, H. & Köngeter, J. (2006). Stochastic modelling and risk analysis <strong>of</strong> groundwater<br />

pollution using FORM coupled with automatic diffrentiation. Advances in Water Resources,<br />

29, 1815-1832.<br />

Box, G.P. & Draper, N.R. (1987). Empirical model-building and response surface. New York:<br />

Wiley.<br />

Datta, D. & Kushwaha, H.S. (2011). Uncertainty quantification using stochastic response<br />

surface method case study-Tansport <strong>of</strong> chemical contaminants through groundwater.<br />

<strong>International</strong> Journal <strong>of</strong> Energy, Information and Communications, 2(3), 49-58.<br />

Isukapalli, S. S. (1999). Uncertainty analysis <strong>of</strong> transport-tranformation models. New Jersey:<br />

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moving least squares approximation for structural reliability analysis. Probabilistic<br />

<strong>Engineering</strong> Mechanics, 25, 365-371.<br />

Phoon K.K. (2003). Representation <strong>of</strong> random variables using orthogonal polynomials.<br />

Proceedings Ninth <strong>International</strong> <strong>Conference</strong> on Applications <strong>of</strong> statistics and Probability in<br />

civil <strong>Engineering</strong>, San Francisco, 1, 97-104.<br />

Phoon, K.K. & Huang, S.P. (2007). Geotechnical probabilistic analysis using collocationbased<br />

stochastic response surface method. Applications <strong>of</strong> Statistics and Probability in Civil<br />

<strong>Engineering</strong>. London:Taylor & Francis, 45-51.<br />

Ranade, A.K., Pandey, M. & Datta, D. (2010). Stochastic response surface based simulation<br />

<strong>of</strong> ground water modeling, <strong>International</strong> <strong>Conference</strong> on modeling, Optimization and<br />

Computing, 213-218.<br />

Van Genuchten, M.Th. & Alves, W.J. (1982). Analysis solution <strong>of</strong> the One-dimensional<br />

convective-dispersive solute transport equation. United Stated Department <strong>of</strong> Agriculture,<br />

Agricutural Research Service, Technical Bulletin 1661.

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