poster - International Conference of Agricultural Engineering

show that Extvalue and Logistic distribution are most appropriate in compared with other
distributions (Fig 1).
(a) distributions of K (b) distributions of K
oc
FIGURE 1: Estimated probability density functions of input data
Fig. 2 shows the results of probabilistic analysis for contaminant concentration-distance
profiles with the elapse time of 800 days by MCS with a sample size of 100,000.
(a) distributions by Chi-square test (b) distributions by Hermite polynomials
FIGURE 2: Profiles of concentration-distance for distributions of random variables
Although the average profiles of concentration-distance are almost same, range of
probabilistic concentration is different for the same distance. The probability of concentraion
of greater than 1 mg/L at distance 80, 90, 100 m and elapsed time of 800 days are shown in
Table 3.
MCS
MLS-RSM
TABLE 3: Comparison of results by estimation method of PDF
The probability of concentration
Method
of greater than 1 mg/L (%)
80 m 90 m 100 m
Chi-square test 44.9 26.4 13.4
Hermite polynomials 48.6 29.5 14.6
Chi-square test 44.6 26.6 13.5
Hermite polynomials 48.8 29.8 14.5