The Business Case for IPv6 - Cisco Knowledge Network
The Business Case for IPv6 - Cisco Knowledge Network
The Business Case for IPv6 - Cisco Knowledge Network
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<strong>The</strong> <strong>Business</strong> <strong>Case</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IPv6</strong><br />
Gina Nienaber, Market Manager – gnienabe@cisco.com<br />
Greg Smith, Sr. Market Manager – gregsmit@cisco.com<br />
Service Provider Routing and Switching<br />
April 2, 2013<br />
© 2010 <strong>Cisco</strong> and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. <strong>Cisco</strong> Confidential 1
click here<br />
© 2010 <strong>Cisco</strong> and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.<br />
<strong>Cisco</strong> Confidential 2
IANA had just run out of addresses, and World <strong>IPv6</strong> Day had just been announced
"As a contribution from Free to this<br />
conference ... we activated <strong>IPv6</strong> by<br />
default <strong>for</strong> all new customers ...”<br />
-- Alexandre Cassen,<br />
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tn3IBkfvCvU<br />
• 10x traffic increase on 6rd Border Relays since this statement!
Large<br />
Un-named<br />
ISP<br />
Feb-11 Feb-12 Dec-12
Large<br />
Un-named<br />
Wireline<br />
ISP<br />
10%<br />
4%<br />
Source: Google<br />
October 2011 January 2012 April 2012 July 2012 October 2012 January 2013
CGN Only<br />
6rd +<br />
CGN<br />
2011 2013 2015<br />
May, 2012 IDC Study –<br />
2011 2013 2015<br />
“<strong>The</strong> <strong>Business</strong> <strong>Case</strong> <strong>for</strong> Delivering <strong>IPv6</strong> Service Now“<br />
www.cisco.com/go/ipv6 under service provider – under Delivering <strong>IPv6</strong>: A <strong>Business</strong> <strong>Case</strong><br />
or<br />
http://goo.gl/DTSW3
73% of smartphone's and<br />
tablets (2.2 billion) could be<br />
<strong>IPv6</strong> capable by 2017 (up<br />
from 41 percent or 479 million<br />
smartphones and tablets in<br />
2012)*<br />
www.cisco.com/go/vni<br />
or<br />
http://goo.gl/JQaWB
Current Mode of Operation<br />
(CMO)<br />
IPv4 with NAT44<br />
Next Mode of Operation #1<br />
(NMO#1)<br />
Dual Stack IPv4/v6 with NAT44<br />
Next Mode of Operation #2<br />
(NMO#2)<br />
<strong>IPv6</strong> with NAT64<br />
with 464XLAT
Only CGN elements are considered<br />
Number of NAT translations required =<br />
subscribers x devices per subscriber x sessions<br />
per device<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
NMO = Next mode of operation ramp-up: either<br />
NMO #1 (dual-stack with NAT44) or NMO #2<br />
(<strong>IPv6</strong> with NAT64)<br />
Simulation run with ASR acting as CGN<br />
Maximized <strong>IPv6</strong> traffic to the extent of <strong>IPv6</strong><br />
content available<br />
3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) <strong>for</strong><br />
subscribers<br />
78% CAGR <strong>for</strong> peak bandwidth (<strong>Cisco</strong> Visual<br />
<strong>Network</strong> Index<br />
5% CAGR <strong>for</strong> average session / UE<br />
Percentage of v6 Internet reaching a plateau<br />
20 CGN Locations<br />
1 UE per Subscriber
Validated by IDC with a Tier 1 <strong>Network</strong> Operator<br />
IPv4 with NAT44 is the most costly way to deal with<br />
IPv4 address exhaust<br />
IPv4 with NAT44<br />
Vs.<br />
Dual-Stack with<br />
NAT44<br />
Vs.<br />
<strong>IPv6</strong> with NAT64<br />
?<br />
Building a path to <strong>IPv6</strong> is the most effective way to reduce<br />
per-subscriber costs associated with NAT44 functionality<br />
CapEx Cost is neutral between Dual Stack <strong>IPv6</strong> with<br />
NAT44 vs. Single Stack <strong>IPv6</strong> with NAT64<br />
OpEx Costs are less clear and are the determining<br />
factor <strong>for</strong> operators<br />
%<br />
85% of smartphone applications worked in an Single Stack <strong>IPv6</strong> NAT64<br />
deployment test. Remaining apps require 464XLAT (RFC 6877)
IPv4 + NAT44<br />
<strong>IPv6</strong> + IPv4 + NAT44<br />
<strong>IPv6</strong> + NAT64<br />
2013 2014 2015 2016<br />
March 2013, IDC Study - “<strong>The</strong> <strong>Business</strong> <strong>Case</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IPv6</strong> in Mobile <strong>Network</strong>s”<br />
www.cisco.com/go/ipv6 under service provider<br />
or<br />
http://goo.gl/J9lZF
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
29%<br />
11%<br />
Source: Google<br />
October 2011 January 2012 April 2012 July 2012 October 2012 January 2013
8%<br />
Source: Google<br />
October 2011 • May 2012 • June 2012 • Jul 2012 • Aug 2012 • Sep 2012 • Oct 2012 • Nov 2012 • Dec 2012 • Jan 2013 • Feb 2013 • Mar 2013
6lab.cisco.com
Automation in the Cloud<br />
IPV6-only Data Centers<br />
Segment Routing<br />
MAP, LW46<br />
Terastream<br />
Metering, SCADA, WSN, …<br />
CoAP<br />
IPv4<br />
UDP<br />
IPv4+<strong>IPv6</strong><br />
<strong>IPv6</strong>-Only<br />
<strong>IPv6</strong><br />
6lowpan<br />
802.15.4 G, 802.15.14 E, Zigbee<br />
IP, Powerline G3, USSD, DECT<br />
LP, Zwave, Bluetooth Low-Energy
IPv4 IPv4 + NAT44 <strong>IPv6</strong> Launch<br />
<strong>IPv6</strong> Everywhere<br />
Fixed Computing<br />
(you go to the device)<br />
Mobility / BYOD<br />
(the device goes<br />
with you)<br />
Internet of Things<br />
(age of the device)<br />
Internet of Everything<br />
(people, process, data, things)<br />
50B<br />
10B<br />
500M<br />
1993 2003 2013<br />
2022<br />
Source: <strong>Cisco</strong> IBSG, 2013
Connecting people in<br />
more relevant and<br />
valuable ways.<br />
Delivering the right<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation to the right<br />
person (or machine) at<br />
the right time.<br />
Leveraging data into<br />
more useful<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>for</strong><br />
decision making.<br />
Physical devices and<br />
objects connected to<br />
the Internet and each<br />
other <strong>for</strong> intelligent<br />
decision making.<br />
Source: <strong>Cisco</strong> Internet <strong>Business</strong> Solutions Group, 2012
• 21 use cases to determine the amount<br />
of Value at Stake (bottom-up approach)<br />
• Both industry-specific and<br />
cross-industry use cases<br />
Smart Buildings<br />
• Smart Factories – $1.95 T<br />
• Smart Grid – $787 B<br />
• Smart Buildings - $349 B<br />
• Etc…<br />
Smart Factories<br />
Connected Private<br />
College Education<br />
Source: <strong>Cisco</strong> IBSG, 2013<br />
http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac79/docs/innov/IoE_Economy.pdf
© 2013 <strong>Cisco</strong> and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. <strong>Cisco</strong> Confidential 24
Top 3 Reasons to Deploy <strong>IPv6</strong> Today<br />
1. CGN Bypass <strong>for</strong> wireline and wireless ISPs<br />
2. More scalable, automated, architectures<br />
3. Prepare <strong>for</strong> the Internet of Everything
<strong>IPv6</strong> Internet of<br />
Everything<br />
<strong>IPv6</strong> Transition is<br />
clearly underway<br />
<strong>The</strong> <strong>IPv6</strong> Things are<br />
Coming
© 2010 <strong>Cisco</strong> and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. <strong>Cisco</strong> Confidential 27
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