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Institutional Equities
Financial analysis
Near-term revenue growth to be led by airports
Net sales are likely to show a CAGR of 35% to Rs71bn and Rs105bn in FY12E and FY13E, respectively. The
airports segment has started contributing significantly to the revenue from 3QFY11, considering robust growth
in passenger traffic and completion of the DIAL phase-I. The contribution from power projects is likely to start
rising from FY13 onwards, as a major portion of the expanded capacity would start contributing to revenue.
Exhibit 17: Net sales
Exhibit 18: Segment-wise revenue break-up
(Rsbn)
105
(%)
Revenue break up (% of total)
60
17
23
40
46
58
71
50
40
30
20
10
48
15
37
47 47
40 40
34
32
20 19
21
44
17
39
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
CAGR 34.4%
-
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Power Projects Road and other Projects Airports
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Source: Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Turnaround in profitability
We expect GMR Infrastructure’s EBITDA margin to expand from 24.2% in FY11 to 36% in FY13 on the back
of improving margins from DIAL and HIAL airports. We expect profitability to be under pressure during FY12
due to higher depreciation and interest costs post-commercialization of DIAL. Thereafter, in our view, the
reported profit is likely to show a CAGR of 312% over FY11-13, largely driven by operating leverage of
high-margin assets such as HIAL and DIAL and negative base in FY11.
Exhibit 19: EBIDTA margin trend
Exhibit 20: Net profit growth trend
(%)
40
36
(Rsbn)
21
35
30
26 27
30
27
30
12
25
7
8 7
20
15
10
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
CAGR 33%
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Source: Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional % Equities Research
64 GMR Infrastructure