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Institutional Equities
Financial performance
Revenue to show a CAGR of 21%
During FY11, net sales increased by only 3.4% to Rs151bn on lower energy sales because of migration of high-end
customers to Tata Power Company. We expect the migration to reduce in the coming quarters due to levy of subsidy and
the company’s medium-term power procurement plan to reduce power costs. The EPC segment is expected to show a
CAGR of 50% over FY12-13. Based on this, net sales would show a CAGR of 21% in FY12 and FY13 to Rs186bn and
Rs221.8bn, respectively.
Exhibit 23: Revenue trend
(Rsbn) (%)
250
200
150
100
50
126
146 151
186
222
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Net sales (Rsbn)
% YoY
-
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
EBITDA to show CAGR of 64%
During FY11, EBITDA rose 22% to Rs14.9bn and EBITDA margin improved 150bps to 9.9%. We expect
EBITDA to show a CAGR of 64% to Rs30.7bn and Rs40bn for FY12 and FY13, respectively, driven by robust
growth in EPC segment, rising contribution of high margin infrastructure projects and revision in power tariff.
However, net profit is expected to be subdued and show a CAGR of 12% over FY12/13 due to increase in
interest costs and lower other income.
Exhibit 24: EBITDA, EBITDA margin trends
(Rsbn) (%)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
6.3
12.3
15.0
30.7
40.1
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
EBIDTA (Rsbn)
EBIDTAM%
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Exhibit 25: Net profit trend
(Rsbn) (%)
25
25
20
19.5
20
15.2 15.5 16.2
15 13.5
15
10
10
5
5
0
-
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
RPAT (Rsbn) % YoY
Source: Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
51 Reliance Infra