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Exhibit 47: Merchant power tariff
(Rs/KWh) June - Sep 09
12
Rs5.9KWh
10
8
6
4
2
0
June - Sep 10
Rs3.2KWh
June - Sep 11
Rs2.82KWh
Source:IEX
Fuel security is critical issue
Currently, 65% of India’s installed power capacity (112GW) is coal-based and 80% of coal requirement is met
through domestic sources. Going ahead, the commissioning of incremental capacity of 82GW (70% of
incremental capacity addition-thermal based) in the next three years would push up incremental coal imports
to 124mtpa over FY11-15E. We believe that constrained infrastructure at ports and unavailability of railway
wagons to despatch coal to the hinterland would be a major hurdle in the import of coal. Hence, lower coal
imports and moderate growth in domestic coal production would compel power plants to operate at a lower
PLF (plant load factor). Based on our analysis in respect of capacity addition and fuel requirement, the power
plants would operate in the range of 75% to 79% of their capacity.
Exhibit 48: Coal demand for power generation
Merchant prices
FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E
Coal demand (mt) 411 445 484 553 631 719
Generation capacity (mw) 84,198 93,918 102,631 117,737 132,550 147,222
PLF (%) 77.5 76.0 76.0 76.0 77.0 79.0
Operating capacity (mw) 65,254 71,378 78,000 89,480 102,064 116,306
Units produced (mn) 571,623 625,271 683,279 783,848 894,079 1,018,838
Gross calorific value (Kcal/kg) 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600
Heat rate (kWh/ Kcal) 2,588 2,560 2,550 2,542 2,540 2,540
Source: CEA, Energy Statistics, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Average
Exhibit 49: Thermal coal import for power generation
Y/E March (mt)
FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E
Exhibit 50: PLF trend
(%)
81
Coal demand (for power generation) 411 445 484 553 639 728
79
Coal production (for power generation) 367 385 404 429 454 482
Incremental coal production - 18 19 24 26 27
Thermal coal imports 44 60 80 125 185 246
Imports ( adjusted for calorific value) 27 37 49 77 115 153
77
75
73
71
69
Incremental imports - 9 12 28 37 38
Source: CEA, Energy Statistics, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Source: CEA, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
21 Infrastructure Sector