Institutional Equities - Online Share Trading

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Institutional Equities Exhibit 39: Competition intensifies Projects Premium (Rsbn) Rsbn L1 L2 L3 Ahmedabad-Vadodra 3.09 1.90 1.40 Beawar-Pali-Pindwara 2.50 2.30 2.10 Kishangarh-Udaipur-Ahmedabad 6.36 5.20 4.30 Shivpuri-Dewas 1.80 1.10 1.00 Source: Company,NHAI, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Delay in awarding projects NHAI has published the results of its annual pre-qualification exercise for PPP projects in the road segment. The 102 developers pre-qualified through this exercise are not required to submit applications for projectspecific qualification. The annual pre-qualification would enable NHAI to reduce the award cycle for new projects and help meet its target of awarding projects totaling 8,000km in FY12. NHAI is trying to further shorten the award cycle by shifting to e-tendering new projects. It has taken up three pilot projects to test the system from August 2011, and going ahead all tenders will be awarded through the e-tendering route. Exhibit 40: Pre-qualification criteria for companies Range (Rsbn) No of companies 0-10 47 20-10 21 20-30 11 30-40 10 40-50 5 50-60 4 60-70 1 70-80 1 80-90 1 90-100 1 Source: NHAI Exhibit 41: Projects to be awarded on e-tendering basis Projects km Bidders Jowai-Meghalaya/Assam Border 104 29 Hospet-Chitradurga 120 37 Raipur-Bilaspur 125 33 Agra-Etawa 124 33 Etawah-Chakeri 160 24 Rampur-Kathgodam 102 35 Source: NHAI 18 Infrastructure Sector
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 Institutional Equities FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E Power segment: Capacity up, but operational issues hurt future valuation During the past two years, the power sector witnessed a slowdown in investments due to delay in obtaining environmental clearances, financial closure issues relating to equity contribution, timely supply of critical components for thermal projects, sourcing of fuel linkage and deteriorating SEBs’ financial status leading to low demand. All these factors postponed the investment plans of the government as well as private players. We expect the issues related to land acquisition, obtaining various clearances and fuel security to persist. However, we have analysed the project portfolios which are at development and planning stage on certain landmarks like financial closure, land clearance and equipment order placement. Based on our analysis, we have come to the conclusion that around 76GW of projects are going to be commissioned by FY15 even after considering 20% to 25% of slippage in ongoing projects. This translates into a CAGR of 20% and completion of around 21GW/year of incremental capacity in the first three years of the 12th Plan period. This provides strong visibility of accelerated capacity addition in the next three years. Apart from this, the postponed capacity would give a push to announcement of new projects during FY12-15. Exhibit 42: Achievement ratio of power capacity addition Five Year Plan Target (MW) Deficit (MW) Achievement ratio (x) 7th Plan 22,245 1,193 0.95 8th Plan 30,538 13,808 0.55 9th Plan 40,245 20,994 0.48 10th Plan 41,110 13,827 0.66 FY08 16,335 7,072 0.57 FY09 11,061 7,608 0.31 FY10 14,507 4,922 0.66 FY11 21,441 9,281 0.57 Source: CEA Exhibit 43: Plan-wise capacity addition Break-up (MW) Central sector State sector Pvt sector Total Pvt sector (%) FY04 3,035 798 974 4,807 20% FY05 2,210 1,169 70 3,449 2% FY06 1,420 1,488 661 3,569 19% FY07 4,630 1,671 552 6,853 8% FY08 3,240 5,273 750 9,263 8% FY09 750 1,850 853 3,453 25% FY10 2,180 3,118 4,287 9,585 45% FY11 4,280 2,759 5,121 12,160 42% FY12E 4,750 1,000 6,698 12,448 54% FY13E 7,300 3,500 10,780 21,580 50% FY14E 7,212 3,500 10,450 21,162 49% FY15E 6,600 4,000 10,360 20,960 49% Source: CEA, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Exhibit 44: 21 Capacity addition trend (GW) 25 20 21.5 21.0 21.0 15 10 6.8 9.2 9.5 12.1 12.5 5 3.0 3.9 3.4 3.5 3.4 0 Source: CEA, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research 19 Infrastructure Sector
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