Institutional Equities - Online Share Trading
Institutional Equities - Online Share Trading
Institutional Equities - Online Share Trading
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<strong>Institutional</strong> <strong>Equities</strong><br />
NBIE estimates versus consensus: Improvement expected in FY13<br />
Bloomberg consensus estimate on net profit has been downgraded by 31% for FY13 between January<br />
2010 & September 2011 for our universe of companies, in which net profit for pure EPC players has been<br />
downgraded by around 65% to 75% in order to factor in the impact of slowdown in revenue growth and<br />
higher interest costs. We believe the expectations have clearly been negative.<br />
• Our FY13 earnings estimate for companies in our universe is higher than the consensus, as we are<br />
expecting the full benefits of pick-up in order execution.<br />
• We believe infrastructure companies would report revenue CAGR of 16% during the period FY11-13<br />
(higher than FY09-11 CAGR of 13%) driven by low base and pick-up in order execution.<br />
Exhibit 24: Consensus estimate vs our estimate<br />
FY12E<br />
Revenue (Rsmn) Bloomberg cons. NBIE est. Variance (%) Bloomberg Cons. NBIE est. Variance (%)<br />
GMR Infra 64,878 71,096 9.6 91,958 105,284 14.5<br />
HCC 46,505 47,414 2.0 52,972 55,267 4.3<br />
IRB Infra 32,838 31,941 (2.7) 42,961 45,863 6.8<br />
IVRCL 60,719 63,748 5.0 70,199 74,998 6.8<br />
R-Infra 189,703 205,805 8.5 231,309 248,878 7.6<br />
Total 394,643 420,004 6.4 489,399 530,290 8.4<br />
FY13E<br />
EBITDA (Rsmn) FY12E FY13E<br />
GMR Infra 22,134 21,644 (2.2) 36,915 38,014 3.0<br />
HCC 6,035 5,903 (2.2) 6,878 6,936 0.8<br />
IRB Infra 13,412 13,543 1.0 16,097 17,247 7.1<br />
IVRCL 5,402 5,487 1.6 6,481 6,585 1.6<br />
R-Infra 27,745 28,681 3.4 34,680 36,884 6.4<br />
Total 74,727 75,258 0.7 101,049 105,666 4.6<br />
PAT (Rsmn) FY12E FY13E<br />
GMR Infra 375 811 116.4 3,552 4,777 34.5<br />
HCC 416 514 23.5 703 907 29.0<br />
IRB Infra 4,952 4,642 (6.3) 5,534 5,967 7.8<br />
IVRCL 1,315 1,350 2.7 1,695 1,777 4.9<br />
R-Infra 16,275 17,140 5.3 21,095 22,678 7.5<br />
Total 23,333 24,457 4.8 32,579 35,323 8.4<br />
Source: Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang <strong>Institutional</strong> <strong>Equities</strong> Research<br />
12 Infrastructure Sector