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Institutional Equities
NBIE estimates versus consensus: Improvement expected in FY13
Bloomberg consensus estimate on net profit has been downgraded by 31% for FY13 between January
2010 & September 2011 for our universe of companies, in which net profit for pure EPC players has been
downgraded by around 65% to 75% in order to factor in the impact of slowdown in revenue growth and
higher interest costs. We believe the expectations have clearly been negative.
• Our FY13 earnings estimate for companies in our universe is higher than the consensus, as we are
expecting the full benefits of pick-up in order execution.
• We believe infrastructure companies would report revenue CAGR of 16% during the period FY11-13
(higher than FY09-11 CAGR of 13%) driven by low base and pick-up in order execution.
Exhibit 24: Consensus estimate vs our estimate
FY12E
Revenue (Rsmn) Bloomberg cons. NBIE est. Variance (%) Bloomberg Cons. NBIE est. Variance (%)
GMR Infra 64,878 71,096 9.6 91,958 105,284 14.5
HCC 46,505 47,414 2.0 52,972 55,267 4.3
IRB Infra 32,838 31,941 (2.7) 42,961 45,863 6.8
IVRCL 60,719 63,748 5.0 70,199 74,998 6.8
R-Infra 189,703 205,805 8.5 231,309 248,878 7.6
Total 394,643 420,004 6.4 489,399 530,290 8.4
FY13E
EBITDA (Rsmn) FY12E FY13E
GMR Infra 22,134 21,644 (2.2) 36,915 38,014 3.0
HCC 6,035 5,903 (2.2) 6,878 6,936 0.8
IRB Infra 13,412 13,543 1.0 16,097 17,247 7.1
IVRCL 5,402 5,487 1.6 6,481 6,585 1.6
R-Infra 27,745 28,681 3.4 34,680 36,884 6.4
Total 74,727 75,258 0.7 101,049 105,666 4.6
PAT (Rsmn) FY12E FY13E
GMR Infra 375 811 116.4 3,552 4,777 34.5
HCC 416 514 23.5 703 907 29.0
IRB Infra 4,952 4,642 (6.3) 5,534 5,967 7.8
IVRCL 1,315 1,350 2.7 1,695 1,777 4.9
R-Infra 16,275 17,140 5.3 21,095 22,678 7.5
Total 23,333 24,457 4.8 32,579 35,323 8.4
Source: Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
12 Infrastructure Sector