Global Health Watch 1 in one file

The wider health context | D1
0.6 °C since the late 18th century, an unprecedented increase since historical
records began. The period from 1995 to 2004 included nine of the ten warmest
years on record (WMO 2004), and climate-related extreme weather events
– hurricanes, tropical storms, flooding, drought and heat waves – now occur
with increased frequency around the world.
More worryingly, the average temperature of the earth’s surface is expected
to rise by between 1.4°C to 5.8 °C by the year 2100. Even the minimum predicted
increase (1.4°C) within this time frame will be faster and larger than
any century-long temperature trend in the last 10,000 years. Many scientists
believe that an average temperature increase of 2°C by 2100 is the threshold of
‘dangerous climate change’ (Parry et al. 2001, IPCC 2001 a). The task required
to prevent such a rise is enormous.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global body of
scientists convened by the UN to study the causes, impacts and responses to
climate change, is in no doubt that humanity faces a grave threat. Furthermore,
they conclude that ‘(t)he impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately
upon developing countries and the poor persons within all countries, thereby
exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean
water and other resources’ (IPCC 2001 b). Cruelly, these communities are also
the least responsible for damage to the climate.
What is climate change and what are the prime drivers of human
influence on the climate?
The global climate system is driven and maintained by a complex set of
interactions involving solar energy, and the effects of clouds and the oceans.
Added to these interactions are a variety of effects resulting from human activity,
in particular industrialization, agriculture, urbanization and deforestation.
The main reasons for the increase in global temperatures are: the previous
150 years of burning ever-greater quantities of fossil fuels (oil, petrol and coal);
deforestation; and certain farming methods. Transport and travel are particularly
major causes of climate change through the burning of fossil fuels (see
Box D1.1). These activities have increased the amount of ‘greenhouse gases’
in the atmosphere – in particular, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.
Concentrations of carbon dioxide are now about one third higher than in preindustrial
times (IPCCc).
Greenhouse gases occur naturally and are critical for life on earth. They
keep some of the sun’s warmth from reflecting back into space; without them,
the earth would be a significantly colder and less hospitable place. But their
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