Economics Markets Strategy - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities ...
Economics Markets Strategy - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities ...
Economics Markets Strategy - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities ...
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<strong>Economics</strong>: Korea<br />
<strong>Economics</strong> – <strong>Markets</strong> – <strong>Strategy</strong><br />
Korea Economic Indicators<br />
2007 2008f 2009f 1Q08 2Q08f 3Q08f 4Q08f 1Q09f 2Q09f<br />
Real output and demand<br />
GDP (00P) 5.0 4.6 5.0 5.7 4.8 4.3 3.8 4.3 4.8<br />
Private consumption 4.5 2.7 3.2 3.4 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.5 3.0<br />
Government consumption 5.8 2.7 3.1 4.0 2.6 2.9 1.5 2.5 2.8<br />
Gross fixed capital formation 4.0 1.1 3.9 0.3 0.4 1.9 1.8 3.5 4.2<br />
Net exports (KRW trn) 87 108 124 25 26 30 28 30 30<br />
Exports 12.1 13.5 12.6 11.7 16.2 16.3 10.0 14.6 10.3<br />
Imports 11.9 11.1 12.1 9.2 13.8 13.9 7.8 13.0 8.9<br />
External (nominal)<br />
Merch exports (USD bn) 371 448 524 99 116 113 119 118 133<br />
- % YoY 14.1 20.7 16.8 17.4 24.8 25.3 15.7 18.2 14.8<br />
Merch imports (USD bn) 357 443 510 105 113 109 116 117 127<br />
- % YoY 15.3 24.2 15.0 28.2 28.1 26.4 15.7 10.7 12.3<br />
Trade balance (USD bn) 15 5 14 -6 3 5 3 1 7<br />
Current account balance (USD bn) 6 -3 5 - - - - - -<br />
% of GDP 0.6 -0.3 0.5 - - - - - -<br />
Foreign reserves (USD bn, eop) 262 265 276 - - - - - -<br />
Inflation<br />
CPI inflation 2.5 4.6 3.0 3.8 4.8 5.5 4.3 3.3 2.4<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r<br />
Nominal GDP (USD bn) 970 942 959 - - - - - -<br />
Unemployment rate (%, sa) 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1<br />
* % change, year-on-year, unless o<strong>the</strong>rwise specified<br />
KR – nominal exchange<br />
KRW per USD<br />
1,060<br />
1,040<br />
1,020<br />
1,000<br />
980<br />
960<br />
940<br />
920<br />
900<br />
6/11/2007 10/10/2007 2/8/2008 6/10/2008<br />
KR – policy rate<br />
%, target rate<br />
5.5<br />
5.0<br />
4.5<br />
4.0<br />
3.5<br />
3.0<br />
Jan-01 Nov-02 Sep-04 Jul-06 May-08<br />
Sources for charts and tables are CEIC, Bloomberg and <strong>DBS</strong> Research (forecasts and data transformations)<br />
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