Economics Markets Strategy - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities ...

Economics: Taiwan
Economics – Markets – Strategy
Taiwan Economic Indicators
2007 2008f 2009f 1Q08 2Q08f 3Q08f 4Q08f 1Q09f 2Q09f
Real output and demand
GDP growth 5.7 5.0 5.4 6.1 4.0 4.5 5.3 4.8 5.5
Private consumption 2.6 2.2 3.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 3.0 3.0 3.2
Government consumption 0.8 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0
Gross fixed capital formation 2.4 5.8 6.1 5.8 3.0 5.1 9.2 5.2 7.4
Net exports (TWDbn, 01P) 2040 2357 2677 561 545 540 712 625 614
Exports (% YoY) 8.8 8.6 8.7 11.4 10.2 7.2 6.0 6.5 7.5
Imports (% YoY) 3.7 6.5 7.1 9.0 8.0 5.0 4.4 4.9 6.0
External (nominal)
Merch exports (USDbn) 247 282 321 64 70 72 75 72 78
- % chg 10.1 14.1 14.0 17.6 17.3 12.0 10.7 11.8 12.0
Merch imports (USDbn) 219 257 292 61 65 66 65 67 72
- % chg 8.2 17.2 13.6 26.0 17.4 14.5 12.4 10.1 11.7
Trade balance (USD bn) 27 30 36 3 5 6 10 5 6
Current account balance (USD bn) 32 31 37 - - - - - -
% of GDP 8.3 7.2 8.3 - - - - - -
Foreign reserves (USD bn, eop) 270 301 319 - - - - - -
Inflation
CPI inflation 1.8 3.4 2.4 3.6 3.9 3.9 2.1 3.4 2.6
Other
Nominal GDP (USDbn) 383 428 445 - - - - - -
Unemployment rate (%, sa) 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8
* % growth, year-on-year, unless otherwise specified
TW – nominal exchange rate
TWD per USD
33.5
33.0
32.5
32.0
31.5
31.0
30.5
30.0
29.5
6/10/2007 9/9/2007 12/9/2007 3/9/2008 6/8/2008
TW – policy rate
%, rediscount rate
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Jan-01 Nov-02 Sep-04 Jul-06 May-08
Sources for charts and tables are CEIC, Bloomberg and DBS Research (forecasts and data transformations)
86