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Economics – Markets – Strategy
Economics: Hong Kong
Hong Kong Economic Indicators
2007f 2008f 2009f 1Q08 2Q08f 3Q08f 4Q08f 1Q09f 2Q09f
Real output and demand
GDP growth (06P) 6.4 5.2 4.7 7.1 4.8 4.8 4.3 4.7 5.8
Private consumption 7.8 5.8 4.6 7.9 6.2 5.4 3.8 5.5 3.7
Government consumption 2.3 2.4 2.5 0.3 1.8 3.6 4.1 3.8 3.7
Gross fixed capital formation 4.2 5.7 4.7 8.9 2.3 4.6 7.3 6.3 8.6
Net exports (HKD bn) 160 170 181 41 25 58 46 39 28
External (nominal)
Merch exports (USD bn) 345 372 402 83 91 99 100 89 97
- % YoY 9 8 8 10 8 7 7 7 7
Merch imports (USD bn) 368 402 436 90 100 105 109 97 108
- % YoY 10 9 8 12 9 8 8 8 8
Trade balance (USD bn) -23 -29 -34 -7 -9 -6 -9 -8 -11
Current acct balance (USD bn) 28 25 28 - - - - - -
% of GDP 13.5 11.0 11.3 - - - - - -
Foreign reserves (USD bn, eop) 153 165 175 - - - - - -
Inflation
CPI inflation 2.0 5.0 4.0 4.6 5.6 5.4 4.3 4.2 4.1
Other
Nominal GDP (USD bn) 207 228 248 - - - - -
Unemployment rate (%, sa, eop) 4.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4
* % change, year-on-year, unless otherwise specified
^ Balance on goods and services
HK – nominal exchange rate
HKD per USD
7.84
HK – policy rate
%, base rate
8.0
7.82
7.80
6.0
7.78
7.76
4.0
7.74
6/11/2007 10/10/2007 2/8/2008 6/10/2008
2.0
Jan-01 Nov-02 Sep-04 Jul-06 May-08
Sources for charts and tables are CEIC and DBS Research (forecasts and data transformations)
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