Economics Markets Strategy - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities ...
Economics Markets Strategy - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities ... Economics Markets Strategy - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities ...
Economics Economics – Markets – Strategy Endnotes 1. See, for example, “Passing the Baton”, 15Jun06; “Asia driving, not decoupling”, 22Sep06; “Asia-vu”, 16Jun07; “The ‘two-fer’ rules”, 14Sep07; “The best defence”, 12Dec07. 2. Measured in sequential, quarter-on-quarter terms, US growth peaked in 3Q03 and began a four-year slowdown from there. Measured in year-on-year term, the slowdown began in 4Q04 and has thus run for some 3.5 years. Sources: The source for all oil consumption and production data is the US EIA. This is annual data and it is available through 2006. Monthly import and export data of oil and petroleum products are generally available through April 2008 and the source is CEIC. Current account data for global oil exporting countries comes from IFS. Data for all other charts and tables are CEIC and Bloomberg . Estimates are by DBS Group Research. Appendix A1. Asia – net oil imports and current account balances as % of GDP, excludes natural gas (1) (2) (2)-(1) (3) (4) (4)-(3) C/A C/A C/A net oil M net oil M net oil M % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP Avg 00-01 Avg 06-07 Change Avg 00-01 Avg06-07 Change CH 1.5 9.9 8.4 1.1 2.5 1.5 HK 5.0 12.8 7.8 2.3 4.9 2.6 TW 4.5 7.7 3.2 2.5 5.1 2.6 KR 2.0 0.6 -1.4 5.5 7.4 1.9 SG 12.8 23.0 10.2 2.7 1.7 -1.0 MY 8.5 15.9 7.5 -1.9 -2.1 -0.2 ID 4.6 2.8 -1.8 -1.0 2.2 3.2 TH 6.0 3.5 -2.5 4.6 8.6 3.9 PH -2.7 4.5 7.2 4.5 6.0 1.5 IN -0.3 -1.0 -0.7 3.1 4.2 1.1 US -4.0 -5.7 -1.7 1.0 2.1 1.1 JP 2.4 4.4 2.0 1.6 3.6 2.0 Aggregates exclude Malaysia, an oil-exporting country Asia 10 3.7 7.1 3.4 2.8 4.7 1.9 Asia 9 4.2 8.1 3.9 2.8 4.8 2.0 Asia 8 4.6 7.8 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.1 Asean5 5.2 8.4 3.3 2.7 4.6 1.9 ID, TH, PH 2.6 3.6 1.0 2.7 5.6 2.9 20
Economics – Markets – Strategy Economics A2. Determinants of global petroleum demand 2005-2006 (2)-(1) chg as (1) (2) (3) % of growth Cons Cons Change global rate 2005 2006 06-05 total '05-'06 mn bbls mn bbls mn bbls (%) (%) World 30,532 30,887 355 China 2,453 2,628 176 49 7.2 SArab 730 781 51 14 7.0 India 890 939 49 14 5.5 Russia 1,006 1,026 20 6 2.0 Brazil 791 809 19 5 2.3 Germany 959 973 13 4 1.4 Spore 293 305 12 3 4.1 Viet 93 100 7 2 7.6 HK 107 107 0 0 0.0 Malay 183 183 0 0 0.0 Phil 124 124 0 0 0.0 Thai 339 339 0 0 0.0 UK 670 668 -1 0 -0.2 Korea 800 793 -6 -2 -0.8 Twan 354 347 -7 -2 -2.0 Italy 641 632 -8 -2 -1.3 France 726 716 -10 -3 -1.4 Canada 838 826 -12 -3 -1.4 Mex 746 729 -18 -5 -2.4 Indonesia 464 445 -19 -5 -4.0 US 7,593 7,551 -42 -12 -0.6 Japan 1,936 1,883 -53 -15 -2.7 Asia (ex-CH, IN) 2,756 2,743 -13 -4 -0.5 CH+IN 3,343 3,567 225 63 6.7 Euro 3 2,326 2,321 -5 -1 -0.2 G3 11,855 11,755 -100 -28 -0.8 21
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<strong>Economics</strong> – <strong>Markets</strong> – <strong>Strategy</strong><br />
<strong>Economics</strong><br />
A2.<br />
Determinants of global petroleum demand<br />
2005-2006<br />
(2)-(1) chg as<br />
(1) (2) (3) % of growth<br />
Cons Cons Change global rate<br />
2005 2006 06-05 total '05-'06<br />
mn bbls mn bbls mn bbls (%) (%)<br />
World 30,532 30,887 355<br />
China 2,453 2,628 176 49 7.2<br />
SArab 730 781 51 14 7.0<br />
India 890 939 49 14 5.5<br />
Russia 1,006 1,026 20 6 2.0<br />
Brazil 791 809 19 5 2.3<br />
Germany 959 973 13 4 1.4<br />
Spore 293 305 12 3 4.1<br />
Viet 93 100 7 2 7.6<br />
HK 107 107 0 0 0.0<br />
Malay 183 183 0 0 0.0<br />
Phil 124 124 0 0 0.0<br />
Thai 339 339 0 0 0.0<br />
UK 670 668 -1 0 -0.2<br />
Korea 800 793 -6 -2 -0.8<br />
Twan 354 347 -7 -2 -2.0<br />
Italy 641 632 -8 -2 -1.3<br />
France 726 716 -10 -3 -1.4<br />
Canada 838 826 -12 -3 -1.4<br />
Mex 746 729 -18 -5 -2.4<br />
Indonesia 464 445 -19 -5 -4.0<br />
US 7,593 7,551 -42 -12 -0.6<br />
Japan 1,936 1,883 -53 -15 -2.7<br />
Asia (ex-CH, IN) 2,756 2,743 -13 -4 -0.5<br />
CH+IN 3,343 3,567 225 63 6.7<br />
Euro 3 2,326 2,321 -5 -1 -0.2<br />
G3 11,855 11,755 -100 -28 -0.8<br />
21
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