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Economics
Economics – Markets – Strategy
Endnotes
1. See, for example, “Passing the Baton”, 15Jun06; “Asia driving, not decoupling”,
22Sep06; “Asia-vu”, 16Jun07; “The ‘two-fer’ rules”, 14Sep07; “The best defence”,
12Dec07.
2. Measured in sequential, quarter-on-quarter terms, US growth peaked in 3Q03
and began a four-year slowdown from there. Measured in year-on-year term,
the slowdown began in 4Q04 and has thus run for some 3.5 years.
Sources:
The source for all oil consumption and production data is the US EIA. This is annual data
and it is available through 2006. Monthly import and export data of oil and petroleum
products are generally available through April 2008 and the source is CEIC. Current
account data for global oil exporting countries comes from IFS. Data for all other charts
and tables are CEIC and Bloomberg . Estimates are by DBS Group Research.
Appendix
A1.
Asia – net oil imports and current account balances
as % of GDP, excludes natural gas
(1) (2) (2)-(1) (3) (4) (4)-(3)
C/A C/A C/A net oil M net oil M net oil M
% of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP
Avg 00-01 Avg 06-07 Change Avg 00-01 Avg06-07 Change
CH 1.5 9.9 8.4 1.1 2.5 1.5
HK 5.0 12.8 7.8 2.3 4.9 2.6
TW 4.5 7.7 3.2 2.5 5.1 2.6
KR 2.0 0.6 -1.4 5.5 7.4 1.9
SG 12.8 23.0 10.2 2.7 1.7 -1.0
MY 8.5 15.9 7.5 -1.9 -2.1 -0.2
ID 4.6 2.8 -1.8 -1.0 2.2 3.2
TH 6.0 3.5 -2.5 4.6 8.6 3.9
PH -2.7 4.5 7.2 4.5 6.0 1.5
IN -0.3 -1.0 -0.7 3.1 4.2 1.1
US -4.0 -5.7 -1.7 1.0 2.1 1.1
JP 2.4 4.4 2.0 1.6 3.6 2.0
Aggregates exclude Malaysia, an oil-exporting country
Asia 10 3.7 7.1 3.4 2.8 4.7 1.9
Asia 9 4.2 8.1 3.9 2.8 4.8 2.0
Asia 8 4.6 7.8 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.1
Asean5 5.2 8.4 3.3 2.7 4.6 1.9
ID, TH, PH 2.6 3.6 1.0 2.7 5.6 2.9
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