Economics Markets Strategy - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities ...
Economics Markets Strategy - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities ... Economics Markets Strategy - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities ...
Economics: Eurozone Economics – Markets – Strategy Eurozone Economic Indicators 2007 2008f 2009f 1Q08 2Q08f 3Q08f 4Q08f 1Q09f 2Q09f Real output and demand GDP growth (00P) 2.6 2.0 2.0 3.2 0.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.1 Private consumption 1.6 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 Government consumption 2.3 1.6 2.0 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.8 2.0 Gross capital formation 4.3 3.7 3.0 10.7 -2.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 Net exports (EURbn) 123 137 148 33 34 36 37 37 37 Exports (G&S) 6 5 4 8 4 4 4 4 4 Imports (G&S) 5 4 4 7 4 4 4 4 4 External (nominal) Merch exports (EURbn) 1504 1617 1716 387 404 407 419 413 429 - % YoY 8 8 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 Merch imports (EURbn) 1448 1546 1618 389 376 378 402 408 5 - % YoY 6 7 5 10 6 5 5 5 5 Trade balance (EUR bn) 56 71 98 -3 28 28 17 5 35 Current account balance (USD bn) 26 46 86 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. % of GDP 0.2 0.3 0.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Inflation HICP (harmonized, % YoY) 2.1 3.0 2.1 3.3 3.4 3.1 2.2 1.8 1.7 Other Nominal GDP (USD tn) 12.2 14.2 13.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Unemployment rate (%, sa, eop) 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 EU – nominal exchange rate USD per EUR 1.56 1.53 1.50 1.47 1.44 1.41 1.38 1.35 1.32 1.29 3/12/2007 7/11/2007 11/9/2007 3/11/2008 EU – policy rate %, refi rate 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Jan-01 Nov-02 Sep-04 Jul-06 May-08 Sources for charts and tables are CEIC, Bloomberg and DBS Research (forecasts and data transformations) 152
Economics – Markets – Strategy 3Q 2008 General Client Contacts DBS Singapore (65) 6878 8888 DBS Bangkok (66 2) 636 6364/5 DBS Shanghai (86 21) 3896 8888 DBS Beijing (86 10) 6505 1216 DBS Guangzhou (86 20) 83497999 DBS Suzhou (86 512) 6288 8090 DBS Shenzhen (86 755) 8269 0880 DBS Fuzhou (86 591) 8754 4081 DBS Tianjin (86 22) 2339 3075 DBS Hangzhou (86 571) 8788 1288 DBS Dongguan (86 769) 2211 7868 DBS Hong Kong (852) 2868 8822 DBS Kuala Lumpur (60 3) 2148 8038 DBS Labuan (60 87) 595 500 DBS KLMO (60 3) 2148 8338 DBS Manila (63 2) 845 5112 DBS Seoul (82 2) 6322-2660 DBS Taipei (886 2) 8101 0598 DBS Taoyuan (886 3) 339 6060 DBS Chungching (886 4) 2296 0088 DBS Taichung (886 4) 2230 9188 DBS Changhua (886 4) 728 4567 DBS Touliu (886 5) 537 2388 DBS Tainan (886 6) 213 3939 DBS Kaohsiung (886 7) 323 2362 DBS Tokyo (81 3) 3213 4411 DBS Jakarta (62 21) 390 3366 DBS Bandung (62 22) 427 1100 DBS Kelapa Gading (62 21) 4855 1267 DBS Kota (62 21) 2656 5788 DBS Medan (62 21) 457 7336 DBS Muara Karang (62 21) 2658 5255 DBS Pekanbaru (62 761) 889 188 DBS Pondok Indah (62 21) 2758 6688 DBS Semarang (62 24) 845 5008 DBS Surabaya (62 31) 532 9661 DBS Thamrin (62 21) 390 3366 DBS Tomang (62 21) 2556 6255 DBS Palembang (62 711) 35 0123 DBS Mumbai (91 22) 6638 8888 DBS Delhi (91 11) 3041 8888 DBS Dubai (97 14) 364 1800 DBS London (44 20) 7489 6550 DBS Los Angeles (1 213) 627 0222 Disclaimer: The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd (the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
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<strong>Economics</strong>: Eurozone<br />
<strong>Economics</strong> – <strong>Markets</strong> – <strong>Strategy</strong><br />
Eurozone Economic Indicators<br />
2007 2008f 2009f 1Q08 2Q08f 3Q08f 4Q08f 1Q09f 2Q09f<br />
Real output and demand<br />
GDP growth (00P) 2.6 2.0 2.0 3.2 0.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.1<br />
Private consumption 1.6 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5<br />
Government consumption 2.3 1.6 2.0 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.8 2.0<br />
Gross capital formation 4.3 3.7 3.0 10.7 -2.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0<br />
Net exports (EURbn) 123 137 148 33 34 36 37 37 37<br />
Exports (G&S) 6 5 4 8 4 4 4 4 4<br />
Imports (G&S) 5 4 4 7 4 4 4 4 4<br />
External (nominal)<br />
Merch exports (EURbn) 1504 1617 1716 387 404 407 419 413 429<br />
- % YoY 8 8 6 7 8 8 7 7 6<br />
Merch imports (EURbn) 1448 1546 1618 389 376 378 402 408 5<br />
- % YoY 6 7 5 10 6 5 5 5 5<br />
Trade balance (EUR bn) 56 71 98 -3 28 28 17 5 35<br />
Current account balance (USD bn) 26 46 86 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.<br />
% of GDP 0.2 0.3 0.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.<br />
Inflation<br />
HICP (harmonized, % YoY) 2.1 3.0 2.1 3.3 3.4 3.1 2.2 1.8 1.7<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r<br />
Nominal GDP (USD tn) 12.2 14.2 13.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.<br />
Unemployment rate (%, sa, eop) 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2<br />
EU – nominal exchange rate<br />
USD per EUR<br />
1.56<br />
1.53<br />
1.50<br />
1.47<br />
1.44<br />
1.41<br />
1.38<br />
1.35<br />
1.32<br />
1.29<br />
3/12/2007 7/11/2007 11/9/2007 3/11/2008<br />
EU – policy rate<br />
%, refi rate<br />
6.0<br />
5.0<br />
4.0<br />
3.0<br />
2.0<br />
1.0<br />
Jan-01 Nov-02 Sep-04 Jul-06 May-08<br />
Sources for charts and tables are CEIC, Bloomberg and <strong>DBS</strong> Research (forecasts and data transformations)<br />
152
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