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Economics – Markets – Strategy
Economics: Philippines
Philippines Economic Indicators
2007f 2008f 2009f 1Q08 2Q08f 3Q08f 4Q08f 1Q09f 2Q09f
Real output and demand
Real GDP growth 7.2 5.4 6.0 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.5
Private consumption 5.8 5.4 5.8 5.1 5.8 5.4 5.4 6.2 5.6
Government consumption 8.3 9.9 4.5 -1.0 15.0 13.5 11.2 5.0 1.0
Gross fixed capital formation 11.8 7.0 5.4 6.6 8.0 7.0 6.5 5.0 3.0
Net exports (PHP bn, 85P) 51.0 29.3 34.6 0.9 10.4 24.8 -6.8 2.4 11.9
Exports 5.6 -7.9 12.1 -11.1 -13.5 -8.0 2.0 8.0 15.0
Imports -4.5 -5.1 11.8 -6.6 -9.0 -6.0 1.0 7.0 15.0
External (nominal)
Merch exports (USD bn) 50.5 49.4 52.7 12.5 11.4 12.1 13.4 13.3 12.2
- % YoY 6.4 -2.1 6.6 2.8 -8.2 -5.3 2.4 6.2 7.5
Merch imports (USD bn) 55.5 65.7 71.3 14.6 16.0 17.5 17.6 16.1 17.2
- % YoY 7.2 18.3 8.5 20.1 20.2 18.4 15.2 10.4 7.2
Merch trade balance (USD bn) -5.0 -16.3 -18.6 -2.1 -4.7 -5.4 -4.1 -2.8 -5.0
Current account balance (USD bn) 6.4 4.8 6.4 5.8 5.1 5.2 4.8 5.0 5.6
% of GDP 4.3 2.8 3.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Foreign reserves, USD bn 34 37 48 37 36 36 37 41 45
Inflation
CPI inflation 2.8 9.0 4.8 5.5 9.3 10.7 10.6 8.9 5.2
Other
Nominal GDP (USD bn) 148 169 192 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Budget deficit (% of GDP) -0.9 -1.0 -0.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Total external debt (USD bn) 52 51 50 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% of GDP 35 30 26 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
* % change, year-on-year, unless otherwise specified
PH – nominal exchange rate
PHP per USD
48
46
44
42
PH – policy rate
%, o/n rev repo
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
40
6/11/2007 10/10/2007 2/8/2008 6/10/2008
4.0
Jan-01 Nov-02 Sep-04 Jul-06 May-08
Sources for charts and tables are CEIC, Bloomberg and DBS Research (forecasts and data transformations)
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