ATMASphere Aug 2014
ATMASphere Aug 2014
ATMASphere Aug 2014
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Dow Award series<br />
The Charles H. Dow Award is recognition for excellence and creativity in<br />
technical analysis annually attributed by the MTA.<br />
The research is about a substantive topic (indicators, strategy or system)<br />
based upon the concepts of technical analysis.<br />
The paper includes data that covers at least one full market cycle and it<br />
must be back-tested with statistical methods.<br />
The analysis and conclusions obtained search to be useful to enhance the<br />
understanding of market action.<br />
The presentation in this edition is<br />
Dow Award 2001 – Sign of the Bear<br />
By Peter G. Eliades<br />
His author shares his experience about what he was looking for and how<br />
the research was developed.<br />
Since his point of view, he attributes some kind of serendipity on in making<br />
meaningful technical discoveries.<br />
In November 1992 he was struck by the apparent lack of volatility in the<br />
daily number of advancing and declining issues on the New York Exchange.<br />
Over a period of 21 trading days, the highest single day closing<br />
advance/decline ratio (1) was 1.84 and the lowest was 0.71.<br />
At that time author felt that it was a very small range for a full month of<br />
data, so he decided to wide that range between 0.65 and 1.95 and search<br />
for the same pattern in old data and to look if it was found and what<br />
follows after its occurrence.<br />
Between 1966 and November 1992 there were only three other periods<br />
when the conditions for the pattern were satisfied. Here are the dates<br />
when those conditions were fulfilled:<br />
January 25,26,27,28 1966<br />
This paper studies a pattern which had preceded the most important stock<br />
market tops of the past several decades.<br />
Market tops tend to be more diffuse than market bottoms, often occurring<br />
at different times for different indexes, the search for an effective tool to<br />
identify major market tops has been elusive.<br />
October 17,18,21,22,24,25 1968<br />
December 6,7,8,11 1972<br />
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