Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa

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have expected a substantial increase in the Black unemployment rate in 1978, rather than a decrease. Between June 1981 and June 1983 according to the CPS, the Black unemployment rate rose from 7.8 per cent to 8,5 per cent, but this is a somewhat slight increase conaidering the fact that non-agricultural employment fell by -0,33 per cent and-3.66 per cent in 1982 and 1983 respectively. As in the case of 1977-78, it is also at odds with the sharp increases in the rate of registered unemployment of Asians, Colourede and Yhites which took place in these two years1). These anomalous movements in the unemployment rate amongst Blacks as measured by the CPS are probably due to the fact that they take inadequate account of underemployment. It seems that in the South African case, therefore, a composite measure of unemployment and of underemployment2) is essential for studying time trends. The difference between our middle-aged British worker forced into the ranks of the unskilled and our Black worker languishing on the farm in Mapumulo is surely one of kind rather than merely of degree. To call it a problem of poverty is to fail to pinpoint the basic causes of the problem: a decline in the rate of growth of the demand for labour or perhaps, as in some years in the past decade, an absolute decrease in the number of modern sector jobs; and a consequent decline in the degree of utilisation of the available labour. (c) There is a similar problem when a modern sector worker is displaced to an informal sector job. As Simkina (1982:8-9) points out, the CPS figures show a higher rate of increase of employment in agriculture, cmerce and-services (sectors in which we should expect the informal sector to be particularly important) than Population Census and 1) It might be noted, too, that the CPS Black unemployment rate rose proportionately much more slightly than the CPs Coloured unemployment rate in the period 1981-1983. 2) Both in the sense of fewer hours of work and work at a significantly lower rate of pay than before the worker was dismissed.
Department of Statistics data indicate. The question then arises whether this mainly reflects the inclusion of informal sector jobs by the CPS. If so, are they really 'full' jobs7 Why should informal sector employment be growing faster when the rate of grovth of formal sector employment is declining? It is indeed hard to see why the informal sector should have a dynamism of its om, enabling it to show a healthy rate of expansion. despite recession in the formal sectors; and it seems much more likely that the informal sector is simply of necessity absorbing people who can't finds jobs in the primary labour market1). And, if growth of employment in 'c-erce' and services' reflects formal sector grovth which other estimates have missed, why is this occurring7 Is South Africa entering the ranks of the post-industrial societies, exhibiting all the signs of de-industrialisation. and if so why7 It is questions of this kind which have to be considered if a case is to be made for using the CPS data rather than other estimates of unemployment in South Africa. Once again, therefore, we would emphasize that the central problem in this regard is the analysis of the processes underlying the cyclical and secular dynamic- of unemployment in South Africa. Given our interpretation of the trends in the South African economy, outlined above, it is reasonable to regard the higher growth rates in agriculture, commerce and services, as reflecting a decline in the quality of jobs. which must be taken into account in analysing trends in the rate of unemployment. 1) %me argue that Black real wages increased rapidly and that there was, therefore, a substantial shift in the racial distribution of income, which henefitted Blacks in the homelands and the informal sector in various ways, including through their effect on commuter incomes and migrants' remittances. It is apparently this which underlies Charles Simkins recent (1984) finding of significant improvements in homelands per capita income between 1960 and 1980. some fieldwork appears to suggest that there are in fact quite significant numbers of informal sector jobs in Black peri-urban areas, but data based on such field surveys do not appear to enable us to tell yet whether these jobs are increasing faster than formal sector jobs, so that they could upset the picture suggested by the macrc-estimates of unemployment.
Page 2 and 3: INSllIUTt TOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC R
Page 4 and 5: i CONTENTS Page - u.t of Tabla0 and
Page 6 and 7: Preface This paper is an extension
Page 8 and 9: Applications by whltea for Employme
Page 10 and 11: Simkins. His work is noteworthy par
Page 12 and 13: There is not, to my knowledge, anot
Page 14 and 15: The evidence thus suggests a persis
Page 16 and 17: ~i~~~~ 1: UNEMPLOYMENT PATES: UNITE
Page 18 and 19: Table 5: Unemployment Rates in Scnn
Page 20 and 21: Thue in a number of other countries
Page 22: Table 6 Registered Unemployment Rat
Page 25 and 26: Table 7 Non-Agricultural Employment
Page 28 and 29: In the case of Blacks, employment g
Page 30 and 31: governwant intervention in foreign
Page 32 and 33: Real Intwraat Rats and Rats of Incr
Page 34 and 35: Table 9 Real Interest Rates and Ave
Page 36 and 37: grawth in general rather than to an
Page 38 and 39: hetbr th. unemployment in voluntary
Page 40 and 41: it is argued that for a small open
Page 42 and 43: imzlO.ion of this form of voluntary
Page 44 and 45: significance1). However, the findin
Page 46 and 47: Thus where the unemployment rate sh
Page 50 and 51: vii) Finally, amongst the causes of
Page 52 and 53: traditionally been considerably hig
Page 54 and 55: already become much more difficult
Page 56 and 57: unemployment is deregulated markets
Page 58 and 59: 'thirties and even the postvar peri
Page 60: might, JB (1982) "The Nature of Une

Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa

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