2012 Global Market report - NAI Global

Miami, Florida
Ocala/Gainesville, Florida
Contact
NAI Miami
+1 305 938 4000
Metropolitan Area
Economic Overview
2011
Population
2016 Estimated
Population
Employment
Population
Household
Average Income
Median
Household Income
Total Population
Median Age
2,512,899
2,584,427
1,242,463
$65,808
$45,007
37
While most of the US remains mired in stagnation, Miami’s
march towards world class status resumed in 2011. Pricing
on both the leasing and sales side are improving in most
sectors; residential occupancies and pricing are growing
and the 1-2 growth punch hit with two major projects
announced from the Miami CBD/Brickell Financial District.
Hong Kong’s Swire Group premiered Brickell CitiCentre, a
$2+ billion, 4 million SF project breaking ground in 2012.
Malaysia’s Genting Group purchased 20 acres in downtown,
announcing a $3 billion casino/resort slated to start when
gambling is legalized.
Multifamily pricing should grow 10.0% to 20.0% for sales
and lease rates. Foreign buyers dominate because of low
relative prices and favorable exchange rates. Two new
condominium projects were announced for downtown with
2014 completion dates.
Retail demand is balanced and vacancy rates are low. Well
capitalized retailers continue to expand and large retailers
like HH Gregg, added stores for the first time. Because of
low vacancy rates, rental rates in preferred markets should
grow 10.0+% and vacancy rates should decline.
The office sector remains divergent; with the CBD, Brickell
and other submarkets experiencing 20.0%+ vacancy.
Rental rates are stabilizing and landlord concession
packages remain generous. The only new construction,
Coral Gables’ 396 Alhambra Circle, is nearing completion
with few leases signed.
Industrial markets are improving; vacancies declining and
rates increasing. Both should benefit from continued export
growth with Brazil, Miami’s largest trading partner and Port
of Miami projects underway. The shipping channel is being
dredged to 50’ to accommodate Post-Panamax ships and
the new Cargo Tunnel is underway to move trucks directly
to the Port of Miami instead of using downtown streets and
clogging traffic which is what occurs today.
Investment activity is led by cash buyers seeking opportunities
and cautiously sifting through distressed assets and notes.
Cap rates are down to 2007 levels for high quality properties.
Spreads between asset classes is 150 to 200 basis points.
Activity should increase from 2011 levels as global investors
focus on Miami’s dynamic economy.
Contact
NAI Heritage
+1 352 482 0777
Metropolitan Area
Economic Overview
2011
Population
2016 Estimated
Population
Employment
Population
Household
Average Income
Median
Household Income
Total Population
Median Age
789,511
837,195
350,240
$55,213
$40,941
41
NAI Heritage was formed in 2010. The Ocala/Gainesville
office serves the north central Florida counties of Marion
(Ocala), Alachua (Gainesville), Citrus (Crystal River), Levy and
Gilchrist. 75% of the population resides or works in the cities
of Ocala and Gainesville which has direct access to I-75 and
is centrally located 90 minutes from Jacksonville, Orlando
and Tampa. The current unemployment rate stands at 11%.
The primary submarkets are quite different from each other
in the Ocala/Gainesville market. The average age of an
Ocala resident is 44. Ocala serves as a hub for regional
retirement communities, the home of The College of Central
Florida, the Horse Capital of the World due to the rich
nutrients derived from the limestone base, has wages and
workforce availability for manufacturing and also has the
high quality of life necessary for many generations to call
Ocala home.
Gainesville’s average age is 29 and is home to the University
of Florida, Shands Healthcare the regions top hospital and
is the birthplace of Gatorade, Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers
and Gatornationals drag racing. Cutting edge economic
development and public/private ventures in North Central
Florida have led to recent announcements launching a 400
acre Ocala International Airport Business Park, a 650 acre
Magna Industrial Park and a 12 acre Innovation Square
development with an Innovation Hub facility offering ways
to shorten the journey from discovery to the marketplace for
Florida’s tech startup companies.
The economic downturn has affected all counties however
Gainesville has weathered it best due to the steady and
increasing demand for higher education and advanced
healthcare. Unemployment is currently at 12.7% and 8.3%
for Ocala and Gainesville respectively with the majority of
surrounding counties ranging from 10% to 12%.
Home prices have declined 20% to 40% in the last few
years with housing starts sputtering in most areas except
for The Villages where residential retirement community
construction continues to do well. While rates across the
board have declined significantly, the trends appear to be
leveling out and in some cases turning positive. There are
great opportunities now and in the future for both first time
and experienced investors.
Miami At A Glance
(Rent/SF/YR) low High effective avg. Vacancy
doWntoWn offIce
New Construction (AAA)
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
suburban offIce
New Construction (AAA)
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
IndustrIal
$
$
$
$
$
$
42.60
31.32
25.50
40.08
24.44
53.86
$
$
$
$
$
$
46.50
46.50
35.92
42.66
42.66
14.00
$ 45.13
$ 40.93
$ 27.37
$ 41.58
$ 29.37
$ 22.73
48.50%
27.90%
19.50%
23.20%
22.30%
13.40%
Bulk Warehouse
Manufacturing
$
$
1.50
1.50
$
$
18.85
18.85
$
$
6.89
6.89
8.20%
8.20%
High Tech/R&D
retaIl
Downtown
Neighborhood Service Centers
Community Power Center
Regional Malls
$
$
$
$
$
4.75
8.00
13.52
38.67
14.00
$
$
$
$
$
23.00
45.00
45.00
50.00
45.00
$ 11.98
$ 34.90
$ 22.46
$ 39.71
$ 30.43
10.80%
3.50%
5.90%
1.50%
3.30%
deVeloPment land Low/Acre High/Acre
Office in CBD
$ 3,250,000.00 $ 5,500,000.00
Land in Office Parks
Land in Industrial Parks
$
$
450,000.00
450,000.00
$
$
900,000.00
675,000.00
Office/Industrial Land - Non-park
Retail/Commercial Land
Residential
$
$
$
175,000.00
325,000.00
100,000.00
$ 1,000,000.00
$ 5,500,000.00
$ 5,500,000.00
Ocala/Gainesville At A Glance
(Rent/SF/YR) low High effective avg. Vacancy
doWntoWn offIce
New Construction (AAA)
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
suburban offIce
New Construction (AAA)
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
IndustrIal
Bulk Warehouse
Manufacturing
High Tech/R&D
retaIl
Downtown
Neighborhood Service Centers
Community Power Center
Regional Malls
$
$
$
$
$
$
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
11.00
8.00
2.00
3.00
N/A
N/A
12.00
15.00
N/A
$
$
$
$
$
$
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
20.00
16.00
6.00
8.00
N/A
N/A
20.00
35.00
N/A
$
$
$
$
$
$
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.00
11.00
4.00
5.00
N/A
N/A
16.00
22.00
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
12.00%
20.00%
15.00%
15.00%
N/A
N/A
15.00%
5.00%
N/A
deVeloPment land Low/Acre High/Acre
Office in CBD
Land in Office Parks
Land in Industrial Parks
Office/Industrial Land - Non-park
$
$
$
N/A
40,000.00
40,000.00
20,000.00
$
$
$
N/A
500,000.00
200,000.00
500,000.00
Retail/Commercial Land
$ 50,000.00 $ 1,000,000.00
Residential
$ 20,000.00 $ 200,000.00
2012 Global Market Report n www.naiglobal.com 92