2012 Global Market report - NAI Global

Little Rock, Arkansas
Bakersfield, California
Contact
NAI Dan Robinson
& Associates
+1 501 224 7500
Metropolitan Area
Economic Overview
2011
Population
2016 Estimated
Population
Employment
Population
Household
Average Income
Median
Household Income
714,981
367,014
63,511
$48,144
35
Little Rock has been energized with the recent passage of
the new local sales tax (1.5 cents) that becomes effective
in 2012. Dormant projects are being revived. The primary
driver of the CBD activity is the completion of planned
tourism infrastructure and continued program expansion at
the Clinton Presidential Library. The funding for the research
park and expansion of the Port’s infrastructure compliments
this positive atmosphere. Natural gas production and
ancillary facility support continues to be an economic factor.
Major developments are nearing completion along the
Chenal corridor. In July, 2012, Southwest Power Pool is
scheduled for a corporate move. They will be relocating
to a 20.5 acre office campus comprised of a 36,000 SF
operations center and a LEED certified corporate office
facility of 150,000 SF, accompanied by a 600 space parking
deck. In the immediate area is Chenal Valley, a planned
community owned and developed by Deltic Timber
Corporation. New ancillary facilities to compliment the
existing 34 neighborhoods include the Promenade at
Chenal, a 38 acre lifestyle center developed by Red
Development. Numerous new national retailers are being
welcomed. The Promenade is projected to be 100%
occupied in early 2012.
The medical community is expanding into Chenal Valley. St.
Vincent West is under construction; a 37 acre health village
campus. Baptist Health has purchased 22 acres for
development. Midtown Little Rock, the Park Avenue Center
is moving forward with its retail development. The most
recent construction to join the new Target facility is Cheddars
Restaurant. Another active commercial/retail node is the
northwest quadrant of the I-430/Col. Glenn Road interchange.
There is extensive site activity and the dust is flying!
Industrial activity is ramping up to support our new
industries; Welspun, a steel pipe fabrication facility and
Caterpillar’s motor grader production facility. The industrial
focus is along the I-440 corridor with the Port in the center
of the activity. Port infrastructure has or is being upgraded.
Of particular note is the completion of the short line rail
re-vitalization serving the Port. Plans are also in place to
assemble additional industrial land for the Port facility.
Contact
NAI Central Cal
+1 661 864 1000
Metropolitan Area
Economic Overview
2011
Population
2016 Estimated
Population
Employment
Population
Household
Average Income
Median
Household Income
865,775
972,430
370,536
$65,122
$49,247
The Kern County and Bakersfield markets have benefitted
from the economic drivers of agriculture, oil, gas, solar, wind
and diverse military weapons research programs in eastern
Kern County. This however is not enough to offset the
contraction in financial services and the construction industry
from the prolific over development of the residential housing
sector. Kern County unemployment at 16.1% leads both
the nation 9.0% and the state 12.2% while the city of
Bakersfield is 10.2%.
The office market ended Q3 of 2011 with an overall vacancy
of 6.9% and net absorption of 51,798 SF. New construction
was limited to 10,577 SF in one building defining the overall
trend of little to no construction. Large transaction categories
were financial services, medical users and governmental.
While supply and demand were close to equilibrium,
landlord’s past over encumbrance of their properties during
2005 to 2007 have lead to foreclosures, a trend we expect
to see more of.
The Bakersfield industrial market ended Q3 with a vacancy
rate of 10.6% while overall net absorption remained
positive. Three large industrial parks are providing the driving
force for development with Caterpillar taking 450,000 SF at
Fort Tejon. Growth categories remain oil, gas, solar, wind,
farming and farm services. Warehouse distribution will play
a large part in the future of Kern County.
The retail sector had an overall vacancy reduction to 6.6%
with major transactions being completed in the big box
categories, drug store chains as well as the dollar store
chains competing for new sites across Kern County.
Foreclosures include three strip centers, two neighborhood
centers and the East Hills Regional Mall. The consolidation
of the Hispanic grocery stores chains is a further sign of the
difficult times that retailers are having in the Bakersfield
market.
New Construction in 2007 that had high construction cost
and high debt levels are experiencing the greatest vacancy
with the southeast quadrant of Bakersfield at 15.8%.
Conservatively leveraged and well located centers are
showing vacancies as low as 3% with very little rollover,
increased rents and national credit tenant interest.
Total Population
Median Age
Total Population
Median Age
30
Little Rock At A Glance
(Rent/SF/YR) low High effective avg. Vacancy
doWntoWn offIce
New Construction (AAA)
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
suburban offIce
New Construction (AAA)
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
IndustrIal
Bulk Warehouse
Manufacturing
High Tech/R&D
retaIl
Downtown
Neighborhood Service Centers
Community Power Center
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
N/A
13.00
8.84
N/A
16.75
11.00
1.50
N/A
3.50
N/A
5.00
9.00
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
N/A
20.00
15.00
N/A
21.00
18.00
5.50
N/A
12.00
N/A
28.00
24.00
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
12.00%
12.60%
N/A
14.20%
7.00%
16.10%
1.00%
24.30%
N/A
8.80%
8.60%
Regional Malls
$ 15.00 $2,500.00 N/A 8.20%
deVeloPment land Low/Acre High/Acre
Office in CBD
$ 8.00 $ 25.00
Land in Office Parks
Land in Industrial Parks
Office/Industrial Land - Non-park
Retail/Commercial Land
Residential
$
$
$
$
152,460.00
32,760.00
65,340.00
108,900.00
N/A
$
$
$
$
522,760.00
130,680.00
261,360.00
1,306,800.00
N/A
Bakersfield At A Glance
(Rent/SF/YR) low High effective avg. Vacancy
doWntoWn offIce
New Construction (AAA)
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
suburban offIce
New Construction (AAA)
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
IndustrIal
$
$
$
$
$
18.55
16.35
11.89
N/A
17.98
8.67
$
$
$
$
$
19.45
17.98
13.01
N/A
19.34
11.89
$ 18.95
$ 17.16
$ 12.45
N/A
$ 18.99
$ 12.09
0.50%
4.40%
5.10%
N/A
5.10%
5.10%
Bulk Warehouse
Manufacturing
High Tech/R&D
retaIl
$
$
$
3.09
3.79
7.16
$
$
$
4.98
8.05
10.56
$
$
$
4.64
4.84
8.28
10.80%
9.90%
8.30%
Downtown
Neighborhood Service Centers
Sub Regional Centers
Regional Malls
$
$
$
$
10.90
12.24
12.75
11.20
$
$
$
$
30.11
20.34
17.25
36.00
$ 13.41
$ 15.24
$ 13.50
$ 19.53
9.10%
9.50%
11.10%
10.50%
deVeloPment land Low/Acre High/Acre
Office in CBD
$ 653,400.00 $ 1,100,000.00
Land in Office Parks
Land in Industrial Parks
Office/Industrial Land - Non-park
Retail/Commercial Land
Residential
$
$
$
$
$
348,000.00
108,900.00
70,000.00
217,800.00
36,000.00
$
$
$
$
$
480,000.00
217,800.00
125,000.00
348,000.00
42,000.00
2012 Global Market Report n www.naiglobal.com 82