2012 Global Market report - NAI Global

Istanbul, Turkey
Kiev, Ukraine
Contact
NAI Treas
+90 216 481 47 00
Country Data
Area (Sq Mi)
GDP Growth
GDP 2011 (US$ B)
GDP/Capita (US$)
Inflation Rate
Unemployment Rate
Interest Rate
Population (Millions)
302,535
3.6%
$789.60
$10,916.69
5.7%
10.7%
5.8%
72.33
On the heals of positive economic figures that included GDP
growth approaching 9% in Q4 2011, 2012 has continued
the favorable trend. Turkey will achieve GDP growth of 5.3%
in 2011 compared with the CEE average of 1.8%. The
consumer confidence index increased 8.2% points in 2011
and should reach a level of 70% in February 2012.
Total modern office stock in Istanbul is 1.9 million SM. The
supply of prime office space in the CBD is limited and the
vacancy rate is rapidly decreasing. Therefore, rents continue
to rise. Umraniye has become the most popular district on
the Asian side for office development. The affordable rental
rates compared to the European side and availability of
suitable properties for construction make Umraniye more
attractive. The largest completed projects in the office
market included the Zorlu Mixed Use Project in Zincirlikuyu,
and Eroglu Office Project with 75,000 SM of GLA in
Umraniye. Both projects delivered in Q4 2012.
The retail market indicators have become more positive in
2011. The total inventory of leasable area has reached 2.6
million SM, with 90 shopping centers in Istanbul. The
average rental rates in shopping centers range from $35 to
$70/SM per month, although the rental rates in the main
districts are between $47.50 to $150/SM per month. In Q1
2011, six shopping centers opened in Turkey with a total of
400,000 SM GLA.
The industrial market was most affected by the global
economic crisis. The rapid regression during the second and
the third quarters of 2011 has now stabilized and new
investment was initiated in Q4 2011 with 1.9 million SM of
new construction licenses.
After the recession in the Turkish real estate market, new
investment transactions were realized in 2011 and this trend
is likely to continue. The yield trends for the office and the
retail markets increased in 2011 and that is expected to
continue into 2012.
Contact
NAI Pickard
+380 44 278 00 02
Country Data
Area (Sq Mi)
GDP Growth
GDP 2011 (US$ B)
GDP/Capita (US$)
Inflation Rate
Unemployment Rate
Interest Rate
Population (Millions)
233,000
4.5%
$157.66
$3,484.14
10.8%
7.7%
7.8%
45.25
Compared to most western economies averaging less than
1% GDP growth, the Ukrainian economy this year should
achieve a healthy 6%, which is based on strong long term
fundamentals and primary products; currently iron and steel
but with agricultural commodity prices rising by up to 30%
world wide, food products are increasingly more significant.
The current high growth rates and these mid to long term
fundamentals are already causing a stir in the retail sector
which has been the first to react. The vacancy rate for
shopping centers in Kyiv is currently about 2%. Half of the
total Ukrainian retail turnover market is concentrated in the
“Big 6”; Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk and
Donetsk where there are approximately 90 operating
retail/entertainment centers. There was a significant growth
of retail space in the capital in 2011 with the opening of the
second phase of Dream Town (82,000 SM) and Promenada
Park (43,000 SM). The average rental rates in high quality
shopping centers have increased up to $80 to $90/SM per
month and in the middle quality lots of 100 to 300 SM they
are $60 to 70/SM. Average market rental rates can range
from $20 to $200/SM. Facade retail space in central Kyiv
starts at $60 (CBD) up to $250 (prime location) per SM.
Another sector to react is hospitality, due to the economic
fundamentals, but also because of Euro 2012 and tax
incentives offered by the government for hotel projects that
open before June 2012. In addition to the six hotels already
operating, there should be at least six more by 2012.
The average rental rates in the office market of Kyiv are
currently $30 to $35/SM in Class A, $18 to $25/SM in
Class B with vacancy rates of 6% to 7% and 12% to 13%
respectively. During 2011 the amount of office space has
increased by 110,000 SM, mostly all of it in the Class B
segment. In 2012 about 270,000 SM is expected to be
added to the stock. The vacancy rate in the warehouse
market is 14%, and rental rates are low at $5 to $6 per
month excluding the operational expenses. Consequently
only 106,000 SM of warehouse space was added in 2011,
the largest being the warehouse complex Technoyarmarok-1
with 12,000 SM. Prime yields in Kyiv can vary from 12% to
16% depending on quality and/or location.
Istanbul At A Glance
conversion 0.72 eur = 1 us$ RENT/M 2 /YR US$ RENT/SF/YR
low High low High Vacancy
cItY center offIce
New Construction (AAA)
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
suburban offIce
New Construction (AAA)
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
IndustrIal
EUR 360.00
EUR 300.00
EUR 243.00
EUR 230.00
EUR 200.00
EUR 121.00
EUR 700.00
EUR 550.00
EUR 262.00
EUR 300.00
EUR 190.00
EUR 227.00
$
$
$
$
$
$
46.45
38.71
31.35
29.68
25.81
15.61
$
$
$
$
$
$
90.32
70.97
33.81
38.71
24.52
29.29
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Bulk Warehouse
Manufacturing
High Tech/R&D
retaIl
EUR
EUR
EUR
54.00
40.00
64.00
EUR
EUR
EUR
66.00
56.00
68.00
$
$
$
6.97
5.16
8.26
$
$
$
8.52
7.23
8.77
N/A
N/A
N/A
City Center
Neighborhood Service Centers
Community Power Center (Big Box)
Regional Shopping Centers/Malls
Solus Food Stores
EUR 750.00
EUR 306.00
EUR 300.00
EUR 400.00
EUR 250.00
EUR 1,800.00
EUR 890.00
EUR 668.00
EUR 780.00
EUR 400.00
$
$
$
$
$
96.77
39.48
38.71
51.61
32.26
$
$
$
$
$
232.26
114.84
86.19
100.64
51.61
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
deVeloPment land low/m 2 High/m 2 low/acre High/acre
Office in CBD
Land in Office Parks
Land in Industrial Parks
Office/Industrial Land - Non-park
Retail/Commercial Land
Residential
EUR 850.00 EUR 4,015.00 $ 4,777,546.21 $ 22,566,880.03
N/A N/A N/A N/A
EUR 265.00 EUR 650.00 $ 1,489,470.29 $ 3,653,417.69
EUR 375.00 EUR 1,600.00 $ 2,107,740.97 $ 8,993,028.15
EUR 560.00 EUR 4,200.00 $ 3,147,559.85 $ 23,606,698.91
EUR 250.00 EUR 2,000.00 $ 1,405,160.65 $ 11,241,285.19
Kiev At A Glance
conversion 8.02 uaH = 1 us$ RENT/M 2 /MO US$ RENT/SF/YR
cItY center offIce
New Construction
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
suburban offIce
New Construction
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
IndustrIal
Bulk Warehouse
Manufacturing
High Tech/R&D
retaIl
City Center
Neighborhood Service Centers
Community Power Center (Big Box)
Regional Shopping Centers/Malls
Solus Food Stores
low High low High Vacancy
deVeloPment land low/m 2 High/m 2 low/acre High/acre
Office in CBD
Land in Office Parks
Land in Industrial Parks
Office/Industrial Land - Non-park
Retail/Commercial Land
Residential
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
UAH 220.00 UAH 320.00 $ 30.58 $ 44.48 N/A
UAH 120.00 UAH 200.00 $ 16.68 $ 27.80 N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
UAH 80.00 UAH 96.00 $ 11.12 $ 13.34 N/A
UAH 64.00 UAH 80.00 $ 8.90 $ 11.12 N/A
UAH 32.00 UAH 80.00 $ 4.45 $ 11.12 N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
UAH 560.00 UAH 2,000.00 $ 77.84 $ 278.01 N/A
UAH 130.00 UAH 350.00 $ 18.07 $ 48.65 N/A
UAH 130.00 UAH 365.00 $ 18.07 $ 50.74 N/A
UAH 370.00 UAH 660.00 $ 51.43 $ 91.74 N/A
UAH 90.00 UAH 135.00 $ 12.51 $ 18.77 N/A
UAH 8,000.00 UAH 24,000.00 $ 4,036,770.74 $12,110,312.23
UAH 250.00 UAH 1,000.00 $ 126,149.09 $ 504,596.34
UAH 50.00 UAH 200.00 $ 25,229.82 $ 100,919.27
UAH 30.00 UAH 150.00 $ 15,137.89 $ 75,689.45
UAH 3,000.00 UAH 10,000.00 $ 1,513,789.03 $ 5,045,963.43
UAH 800.00 UAH 3,200.00 $ 403,677.07 $ 1,614,708.30
2012 Global Market Report n www.naiglobal.com 62