2012 Global Market report - NAI Global

Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Oslo, Norway
Contact
NAI Netherlands
+3120 364 0007
Country Data
Area (Sq Mi)
GDP Growth
GDP 2011 (US$ B)
GDP/Capita (US$)
Inflation Rate
Unemployment Rate
Interest Rate
Population (Millions)
14,422
1.7%
$776.09
$46,641.03
2.6%
4.4%
1.0%
16.64
According to the latest forecast the Dutch economy has
experienced a growth of 1.5% in 2011 and is expected to
grow an additional 1% in 2012. The growth can be attributed
mainly to the export market. Business investments are
expected to recover well with a growth of 9.25% this year
however continued growth is not expected to continue into
2012. The unemployment figure is around 4.5% and expected
to fall to 4.25% in 2012.
The take-up of office space shows a positive image with a
take-up of approximately 525,000 SM in the first half of
2011, resulting in a growth of 16% compared with the same
period in 2010. The outlook for 2011 is a total take-up of
approximately 1.1 million SM. The total take-up in 2010 was
1.014 million SM. The prime rents have remained stable but
the average rents are declining. Substantial incentives are
being offered to support rental rates. Among the largest office
transactions in 2011 were School of Rotterdam lease of
16,000 SM in Rotterdam and Bookings deal of 12,500 SM
in Amsterdam.
In the first half of 2011 the take-up of industrial space was
approximately 1.24 million SM which is a growth of 45%
compared to the same period in 2010. The total take-up in
2010 was 2.17 million SM. The average effective rents
declined in 2011. The vacancy rate rose in 2011 compared
to 2010 to a 13% total vacancy of which 23% was in logistic
centers. Among the largest transactions were the MJV lease
of 42,700 SM in Terneuzen and the Kuehne + Nagel lease of
34,000 SM in Utrecht.
The stock of retail space is approx. 27.7 million SM. The
vacancy is 6.2% of the stock. Properties located on shopping
streets outside the city center have been most affected by the
rise in vacancy rates. The prime rent levels in the large cities
increased slightly, but in the smaller regional cities the rent
levels are declining.
The recovery of the investment market in 2010 seems to
have disappeared. The total investment volume was over €2
billion in the first half of 2011. This volume is €0.6 billion
less compared to the same period in 2010. Prime Yields in
the four largest cities are between 5.75% to 7.25%. Among
the largest transactions were six logistics centers sold for
€157 million to WP Carey and the Amstel Hotel sale for €100
million to a Lebanese investor.
Contact
NAI FirstPartners
+47 2301 1400
Country Data
Area (Sq Mi)
GDP Growth
GDP 2011 (US$ B)
GDP/Capita (US$)
Inflation Rate
Unemployment Rate
Interest Rate
Population (Millions)
125,013
1.8%
$425.04
$86,210.86
1.4%
3.6%
2.3%
4.93
Norway benefits from a robust economic system that is
supported by huge stocks of natural resources and a skilled
labor force. Most large international companies have a
presence in the country’s capital city Oslo. There are two
key business districts; CBD East with almost half a million
square meters of prime office space in Bjørvika, and CBD
West including Vika, Tjuvholmen and Aker Brygge which is
currently undergoing comprehensive redevelopment.
Norway is now in a relatively strong position with almost full
employment, solid private consumption and other non-oil
export companies continuing to do well. Interest rates are
expected to remain low over the long term, and GDP growth
will nearly double by 2013.
Throughout the recovery in 2010 rents have increased
moderately and have now all but flattened out entirely. Rents
are not expected to see significant increases again until late
2013. Prime office rents in CBD areas are close to
NOK 4,000/SM but average rents in these areas are
approximately NOK 2,700/SM. Average industrial rents in
the Alnabru area are around NOK 1,000/SM and average
retail rents around NOK 6,000/SM. Prime office yields have
been decreasing gently over the last two years and now
stand at around 5.25%.
Investment activity has dropped off in 2011 after an
encouraging 2010 and financing has become more of an
issue. There were however some significant transactions in
2011. The most active buyers in the market are investors
including the Storebrand Group, Eiendomsspar AS and
Pareto Project Finance as well as KLP and Vital. However,
there has been a significant increase in private investment
throughout 2011.
In addition to Norwegian Property's extensive refurbishment
plans for Aker Brygge, there is on going development in
Bjørvika which now houses some of the biggest accountancy
and banking firms such as Ernst & Young and PWC. Norway’s
largest bank DnB will also start to occupy their new 80,000
SM building in 2012. Deloitte will soon follow and occupy
their landmark 'iceberg' building upon completion in 2013.
The area of Økern/Løren/Ulven towards the east of the city
is also undergoing extensive redevelopment to provide a mix
of retail, office and industrial just outside the city center.
Amsterdam At A Glance
conversion 0.72 eur = 1 us$ RENT/M 2 /YR US$ RENT/SF/YR
low High low High Vacancy
cItY center offIce
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
Average City Center
suburban offIce
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
IndustrIal
Bulk Warehouse
Light Industrial
High Tech/R&D
retaIl
High Street Shops
Retail Units In Parks
Community Power Center (Big Box)
Solus Food Stores
EUR 200.00 EUR 350.00 $ 25.81 $ 45.16 14.00
EUR 175.00 EUR 225.00 $ 22.58 $ 29.03 14.00
EUR 150.00 EUR 220.00 $ 19.35 $ 28.39 14.00
EUR 175.00 EUR 225.00 $ 22.58 $ 29.03 14.00
EUR 95.00 EUR 150.00 $ 12.26 $ 19.35 14.00
EUR 25.00 EUR 110.00 $ 3.23 $ 14.19 N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
EUR 1,500.00 EUR 2,500.00 $ 193.55 $ 322.58 N/A
EUR 300.00 EUR 550.00 $ 38.71 $ 70.97 N/A
EUR 125.00 EUR 175.00 $ 16.13 $ 22.58 N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
deVeloPment land low/m 2 High/m 2 low/acre High/acre
Office in CBD
EUR 700.00 EUR 2,165.00 $ 3,934,449.82 $ 12,168,691.22
Land in Office Parks
EUR 255.00 EUR 980.00 $ 1,433,263.86 $ 5,508,229.74
Land in Industrial Parks
Office/Industrial Land - Non-park
EUR
EUR
100.00 EUR
100.00 EUR
375.00 $
375.00 $
562,064.26 $
562,064.26 $
2,107,740.97
2,107,740.97
Retail/Commercial Land
EUR 150.00 EUR 23,500.00 $ 843,096.39 $ 132,085,101.03
Residential
EUR 300.00 EUR 4,000.00 $ 1,686,192.78 $ 22,482,570.39
Oslo At A Glance
conversion 5.82 nok = 1 us$ RENT/M 2 /YR US$ RENT/SF/YR
low High low High Vacancy
cItY center offIce
New Construction
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
suburban offIce
New Construction (AAA)
Class A (Prime)
Class B (Secondary)
IndustrIal
NOK 2,500.00 NOK 3,500.00 $39.91
NOK 2,400.00 NOK 3,200.00 $38.31
NOK 1,600.00 NOK 2,100.00 $25.54
NOK 1,600.00 NOK 2,400.00 $ 25.54
NOK 1,500.00 NOK 2,200.00 $ 23.94
NOK 1,300.00 NOK 1,500.00 $ 20.75
$55.87
$51.08
$33.52
$ 38.31
$ 35.12
$ 23.94
1.00%
6.00%
7.50%
4.00%
7.00%
10.00%
Bulk Warehouse
NOK 550.00 NOK 1,200.00 $ 8.78 $ 19.16 6.00%
Manufacturing
NOK 450.00 NOK 800.00 $ 7.18 $ 12.77 6.00%
High Tech/R&D
retaIl
NOK 750.00 NOK 1,050.00 $ 11.97 $ 16.76 6.00%
City Center
Neighborhood Service Centers
Community Power Center (Big Box)
Regional Shopping Centers/Malls
NOK 2,500.00 NOK 11,000.00 $ 39.91
NOK 1,200.00 NOK 1,500.00 $ 19.16
NOK 1,300.00 NOK 2,500.00 $ 20.75
NOK 1,800.00 NOK 5,000.00 $ 28.73
$ 175.59
$ 23.94
$ 39.91
$ 79.81
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
7.00%
Solus Food Stores
NOK 900.00 NOK 1,500.00 $ 14.37 $ 23.94 7.00%
deVeloPment land low/m 2 High/m 2 low/acre High/acre
Office in CBD
Land in Office Parks
Land in Industrial Parks
Office/Industrial Land - Non-park
Retail/Commercial Land
Residential
NOK 5,000.00 NOK 10,000.00 $ 3,476,686.14 $ 6,953,372.28
NOK 3,000.00 NOK 6,000.00 $ 2,086,011.69 $ 4,172,023.37
NOK 1,500.00 NOK 3,000.00 $ 1,043,005.84 $ 2,086,011.69
NOK 1,000.00 NOK 2,500.00 $ 695,337.23 $ 1,738,343.07
NOK 1,500.00 NOK 4,000.00 $ 1,043,005.84 $ 2,781,348.91
NOK 1,000.00 NOK 15,000.00 $ 695,337.23 $ 10,430,058.43
2012 Global Market Report n www.naiglobal.com 56