2012 Global Market report - NAI Global

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EMEA sectIon contents The Baltics (Latvia/Estonia/Lithuania) Brussels, Belgium Sofia, Bulgaria Prague, Czech Republic Helsinki, Finland Paris - lle de France (Paris Region), France Frankfurt am Main, Germany Athens, Greece Tel Aviv, Israel Almaty, Kazakhstan Kuwait City, Kuwait Luxembourg City, Luxembourg Amsterdam, The Netherlands Oslo, Norway Warsaw, Poland Doha City, Qatar Moscow, Russia St. Petersburg, Russia Belgrade, Serbia Johannesburg, South Africa Madrid, Spain Stockholm, Sweden Geneva, Switzerland Zürich, Switzerland Istanbul, Turkey Kiev, Ukraine Birmingham, England, United Kingdom Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom Leeds, England, United Kingdom London, England, United Kingdom Manchester, England, United Kingdom 49
The Baltics (Latvia/Estonia/Lithuania) Contact NAI Baltics +371 6731 2396 Country Data - Estonia Area (Sq Mi) 17,462 GDP Growth 3.5% GDP 2011 (US$ B) $19.8 GDP/Capita (US$) $14,948.13 Inflation Rate 2.0% Unemployment Rate 16.4% Interest Rate 1.0% Population (Millions) 1.331 Latvia Area (Sq Mi) 24,926 GDP Growth 3.3% GDP 2011 (US$ B) $23.88 GDP/Capita (US$) $10,628.40 Inflation Rate 0.9% Unemployment Rate 17.5% Interest Rate 3.5% Population (Millions) 2.247 Lithuania Area (Sq Mi) 25,200 GDP Growth 3.1% GDP 2011 (US$ B) $36.73 GDP/Capita (US$) $11,133.41 Inflation Rate 1.3% Unemployment Rate 16.0% Interest Rate 2.0% Population (Millions) 3.299 The Baltics At A Glance conversion 0.72 eur = 1 us$ RENT/M 2 /MO US$ RENT/SF/YR low High low High Vacancy cItY center offIce New Construction (AAA) Class A (Prime) EUR EUR 9.00 9.00 EUR 12.00 EUR 12.00 $ $ 13.94 13.94 $ 18.58 $ 18.58 5.00% 5.00% Class B (Secondary) suburban offIce New Construction (AAA) Class A (Prime) EUR 5.00 N/A N/A EUR 7.00 N/A N/A $ 7.74 N/A N/A $ 10.84 N/A N/A 20.00% N/A N/A Class B (Secondary) IndustrIal Bulk Warehouse Manufacturing High Tech/R&D retaIl EUR EUR 4.00 1.50 N/A N/A EUR EUR 6.00 4.50 N/A N/A $ $ 6.19 2.32 N/A N/A $ $ 9.29 6.97 N/A N/A 25.00% 30.00% N/A N/A City Center Neighborhood Service Centers Community Power Center (Big Box) Regional Shopping Centers/Malls Solus Food Stores EUR EUR 7.00 N/A 8.00 N/A N/A EUR 23.00 N/A EUR 15.00 N/A N/A $ $ 10.84 N/A 12.39 N/A N/A $ 35.61 N/A $ 23.23 N/A N/A 5.00% N/A 3.00% N/A N/A deVeloPment land low/m 2 High/m 2 low/acre High/acre Office in CBD Land in Office Parks Land in Industrial Parks Office/Industrial Land - Non-park Retail/Commercial Land Residential The outlook for the Baltic States is better than in other parts of Europe. The GDP is expected to grow by 3.6 % in 2011, but a slowing global business cycle weakened the recovery with the growth rates forecasted at 2.6 % in 2012 and 2.9 % in 2013. Estonia shows the highest growth rate in the region, followed by Lithuania and Latvia. Earlier imbalances have been reduced and the resilience against global turmoil is stronger. The office market faced a slowdown due to the lack of available financing and a decrease in demand. The market remains tenant driven with most leases short-term with early termination clauses. Rental rates have reached the bottom with a stabilization in vacancies and rents achieved but no significant improvement expected in the near future as unemployment remains high. Highly selective investors are interested in only well leased locations. Recovery is expected no earlier than 2012. The retail market realized considerably lower vacancies than the office market. Wage increases and consumer confidence growth positively contributed to the retail volumes (+4.5% year-over-year) and customer flow. Factors affecting this market include; upward pressure on rents in prime locations, several well performing retailers moved to better locations or expanded their space and some new, international companies chose to enter the Baltic’s retail market. The downturn in the industrial/warehouse market stopped, with the bottom being reached at the end of 2010. However, despite a slight stabilization, the activity continues to remains low with vacancy around 30%. Most vacant space is accumulated in large scale projects. The recovery in this market is expected to lag behind the retail and office sectors. Continuing negative trends regarding Class C properties are due to increasing vacancies related to the relocation of tenants. Most developers are looking for pre-let agreements from large international tenants. A slight boost is forecast in the number of transactions expected in the Baltic residential/multifamily market due to an increase in activity among lenders. There was a 32% yearover-year price increase for new projects in prime locations. Equity rich investment funds, developers and private individuals from CIS countries are active in the residential market. After two depressing years in a row, hotels have reported improved results in H1 2011. The occupancy level increased from 33% in H1 2010 to 43% in H1 2011. However, operators are still cautious and many have postponed their final decision to enter the Baltic States market. There is still room for major, international hotel chains to enter the market. EUR 10.00 EUR 60.00 $ 56,206.43 $ 337,238.56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A EUR 10.00 EUR 100.00 $ 56,206.43 $ 562,064.26 Brussels, Belgium Contact NAI Belux +32 2 420 10 10 Country Data Area (Sq Mi) GDP Growth GDP 2011 (US$ B) GDP/Capita (US$) Inflation Rate Unemployment Rate Interest Rate Population (Millions) 11,787 The moderate economic recovery of 2010 will continue into 2012. After the recession of 2009 (GDP -2.7%) the economy experienced a somewhat bumpy recovery during 2010. Even so, the financial markets are worried about the current political stalemate, which leads to a postponement of necessary structural adjustments to the budget. The caretaker cabinet led by Yves Leterme will aim to reduce the deficit below 4.1% of GDP in 2011, as agreed with the European Union. The Belgian real estate market remains subdued with the availability of Grade A space driving recent rental drops in a number of submarkets over the quarter. With no new government for the moment, most public deals have been put on hold, and although the economy is recovering, the market remains uncertain. Rents held firm in the CBD, but eased down over the quarter in the city center, north station and peripheral submarkets. Take-up activity reached half of the five year average. This combined with a limited speculative completion kept the vacancy rate in Brussels at 11.2%. Development activity was historically low in 2011 and that will continue to be the case in 2012. Prime face rent remained stable. The total real estate investment volume in Belgium reached EUR 0.48 billion in Q2 2011, bringing the total for the first half of the year to EUR 0.9 billion, up 40% on the volume of H1 2010. Prime office yields (6/9 year leases) remained stable at 6.0% for CBD after having experienced a compression during H2 2010. The European Union is expected to finalize a large transaction soon, although uncertainty should continue to characterize the market as the lack of government deals affect the large public sector within Brussels. However, other business sectors are still active and therefore market sentiment should slowly improve in the remainder of the year. Investor confidence and competition for large, prime quality spaces should also continue to increase. Therefore, yields should hold firm in prime locations, although the peripheral submarkets may see further softening. Rental values should largely remain stable, although certain submarkets could see further downward pressure over the remainder of the year. Recently, with the downfall of the stock national and international markets, private investors have shown an increased activity in the real estate investment market. They mainly seek investments with low risk and low management activity such as residential investments or retail investments (high-street retail or retail warehousing). Brussels At A Glance conversion 0.72 eur = 1 us$ RENT/M 2 /YR US$ RENT/SF/YR low High low High Vacancy cItY center offIce New Construction (AAA) EUR 240.00 EUR 265.00 $ 30.97 $ 34.19 8.00% Class A (Prime) Class B (Secondary) suburban offIce EUR EUR 195.00 EUR 240.00 160.00 EUR 195.00 $ $ 25.16 20.64 $ 30.97 11.00% $ 25.16 15.00% New Construction (AAA) EUR 175.00 EUR 195.00 $ 22.58 $ 25.16 8.00% Class A (Prime) Class B (Secondary) IndustrIal EUR EUR 155.00 EUR 175.00 120.00 EUR 155.00 $ $ 20.00 15.48 $ 22.58 11.00% $ 20.00 20.00% Bulk Warehouse Manufacturing High Tech/R&D retaIl EUR EUR EUR 40.00 EUR 44.00 EUR 50.00 EUR 46.00 52.00 60.00 $ $ $ 5.16 5.68 6.45 $ $ $ 5.94 6.71 7.74 N/A N/A N/A City Center EUR 1,250.00 EUR 1,650.00 $ 161.29 $ 212.90 N/A Neighborhood Service Centers EUR 120.00 EUR 170.00 $ 15.48 $ 21.94 N/A Community Power Center (Big Box) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Regional Shopping Centers/Malls EUR 1,250.00 EUR 1,650.00 $ 161.29 $ 212.90 N/A Solus Food Stores N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A deVeloPment land low/m 2 High/m 2 low/acre High/acre Office in CBD Land in Office Parks Land in Industrial Parks Office/Industrial Land - Non-park Retail/Commercial Land Residential 1.7% $469.13 $43,116.07 1.9% 8.5% 1.0% 10.881 EUR 1,500.00 EUR 2,500.00 $ 8,430,963.90 $ 14,051,606.49 EUR 500.00 EUR 1,000.00 $ 2,810,321.30 $ 5,620,642.60 EUR 100.00 EUR 150.00 $ 562,064.26 $ 843,096.39 EUR 200.00 EUR 350.00 $ 1,124,128.52 $ 1,967,224.91 EUR 250.00 EUR 750.00 $ 1,405,160.65 $ 4,215,481.95 EUR 500.00 EUR 1,000.00 $ 2,810,321.30 $ 5,620,642.60 2010 Global Market Report n www.naiglobal.com 50
Page 1 and 2: 2012 Global Market report Values, t
Page 3 and 4: n n n table of contents General Inf
Page 5 and 6: Global Outlook US Year in Review As
Page 7 and 8: On the Road to Recovery % of Loss S
Page 9 and 10: 55% (1.1 million) owning and 45% (8
Page 11 and 12: short-term leases, the multifamily
Page 13 and 14: Alberta is home to Canada’s oil a
Page 15 and 16: Office The sovereign debt crisis an
Page 17 and 18: Area Type Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q
Page 19 and 20: obust telecom infrastructure and av
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Page 31 and 32: Adelaide, Australia Brisbane, Austr
Page 33 and 34: Sydney, Australia Beijing, China Co
Page 35 and 36: Shanghai, China Shenzhen, China Con
Page 37 and 38: Chennai, India Mumbai, India Contac
Page 39 and 40: Jakarta, Indonesia Tokyo, Japan Con
Page 41 and 42: Christchurch, New Zealand Wellingto
Page 43 and 44: Taipei, Taiwan Ho Chi Minh City, Vi
Page 45 and 46: Calgary, Alberta, Canada Edmonton,
Page 47 and 48: Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada Ottawa
Page 49: Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada Contac
Page 53 and 54: Helsinki, Finland Paris - lle de Fr
Page 55 and 56: Tel Aviv, Israel Almaty, Kazakhstan
Page 57 and 58: Amsterdam, The Netherlands Oslo, No
Page 59 and 60: Moscow, Russia St. Petersburg, Russ
Page 61 and 62: Madrid, Spain Stockholm, Sweden Con
Page 63 and 64: Istanbul, Turkey Kiev, Ukraine Cont
Page 65 and 66: Leeds, England, United Kingdom Lond
Page 67 and 68: Latin America sectIon contents Buen
Page 69 and 70: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Sao Paulo, B
Page 71 and 72: San Jose, Costa Rica Contact NAI Co
Page 73 and 74: Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico Guanaj
Page 75 and 76: Mexico City, Mexico Contact NAI Mex
Page 77 and 78: Saltillo, Coahuila, Mexico San Luis
Page 79 and 80: Lima, Peru Caracas, Venezuela Conta
Page 81 and 82: Birmingham, Alabama Huntsville/Deca
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Des Moines, Iowa Sioux City, Iowa C
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Baton Rouge, Louisiana Lake Charles
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Greater Portland, Maine Baltimore,
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Greater Springfield, Massachusetts
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Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota Jac
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Billings, Montana Bozeman, Montana
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Omaha, Nebraska Las Vegas, Nevada C
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Portsmouth, New Hampshire Atlantic
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Ocean/Monmouth Counties (“Shore M
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Las Cruces, New Mexico Albany, New
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Westchester, New York Asheville, No
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Raleigh/Durham, North Carolina Farg
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Cincinnati, Ohio Cleveland, Ohio Co
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Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Tulsa, Okla
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Berks County, Pennsylvania Bucks Co
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Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Philadel
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Sioux Falls, South Dakota Chattanoo
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Memphis, Tennessee Nashville, Tenne
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Corpus Christi, Texas Dallas, Texas
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Houston, Texas Contact NAI Houston
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Salt Lake City, Utah Washington Cou
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Northern Virginia Seattle/Puget Sou
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Madison, Wisconsin Milwaukee, Wisco
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n Glossary n Acre Area of land equa
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