The Quick Count and Election Observation

THE QUICK COUNT AND ELECTION OBSERVATION
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CHAPTER FIVE
Statistical Principles
and Quick Counts
The quick count methodology applies statistical principles to a very practical
problem—verifying an electoral outcome. 1 This chapter outlines
those statistical principles and describes how they work together. The
briefest way to present this information is to use the language of mathematics,
and to a certain extent that language is unavoidable. The goal of this chapter,
however, is to present the basic concepts in a non-technical way so that the
logic behind quick count methodology is accessible to a general audience.
The first part of this chapter presents the foundations of quick count methodology.
It begins by considering the robustness of quick count data and such
core concepts as sample and population. The chapter then turns to an explanation
of statistical principles, such as the law of large numbers and the central
limit theorem. The second, more technical half of the chapter presents the
process for constructing a sample. It outlines measures of central tendency
and dispersion, and then discusses standard strategies for calculating and drawing
samples. It also takes up practical questions, such as correction factors,
that are designed to manage the unique problems that arise in the application
of statistical principles to quick count situations.
BASIC STATISTICAL PRINCIPLES
Statistical principles drive the methodology for collecting and analyzing quick
count data. This methodology is grounded in broadly accepted scientific principles.
Like the law of gravity, these statistical principles are not just a matter
Statistical principles
drive the methodology
for collecting and analyzing
quick count data.
1
This chapter focuses on the statistical principles involved in drawing a random sample of polling stations,
from which data is collected and analyzed to project or verify election results. Quick count
methodology, however, has evolved, and the same statistical principles now drive the qualitative
observation of an election. Chapter Six, The Qualitative Component of the Quick Count, describes
how information on the voting and counting processes can be collected from the same observers
and the same polling stations used to retrieve data on the vote count. These findings can be reliably
generalized to the quality of the voting and counting processes throughout the country.