The Quick Count and Election Observation
The Quick Count and Election Observation
The Quick Count and Election Observation
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C H A P T E R E I G H T : T H E E N D G A M E<br />
122 Reviewing the Electoral Context<br />
A discussion about managing quick count data should be preceded by a review<br />
of the electoral context. While many key staff <strong>and</strong> board members may be<br />
experts in election administration, electoral law, political campaigns, media<br />
coverage or international cooperation, it can be difficult to keep abreast of<br />
every development in every area. This is particularly true during the often<br />
action-packed run-up to elections. It is, therefore, best to briefly discuss the<br />
following areas concerning the electoral context:<br />
• Administrative preparations—Are materials in place? Are polling station<br />
officials trained? Are counting centers properly outfitted? Have election<br />
officials held simulations to estimate the timing of voting procedures <strong>and</strong><br />
the duration of the official counting process? How will authorities release<br />
the official election results (e.g., in real time on the Internet, at time intervals<br />
as preliminary results, not until a percentage of results are in)? Have<br />
authorities made any public statements regarding quick counts?<br />
• <strong>The</strong> political environment—Are the c<strong>and</strong>idates <strong>and</strong> parties expecting a fair<br />
process, <strong>and</strong> are they likely to challenge the outcome in the event they<br />
do not win? What election-day problems are the political contestants<br />
expecting, if any? Do political parties trust the independent quick count?<br />
Will they be doing their own quick counts?<br />
• Polling data—How does the public view the process to date? What is the<br />
likely turnout? Are there any reliable opinion polls on election results?<br />
What is the status of public confidence in the process? Will citizens trust<br />
the official results <strong>and</strong>/or the quick count?<br />
• <strong>The</strong> international community—Are international observer organizations<br />
present? Are any of them considered credible, <strong>and</strong> are any coordinating<br />
with national observers? Will diplomatic missions also report on the<br />
process? Are they prepared to play a role in providing external validation<br />
that the election satisfies the necessary minimal conditions of a<br />
genuine, democratic election?<br />
Revisiting <strong>Quick</strong> <strong>Count</strong> Goals<br />
It is important for groups to reaffirm the validity <strong>and</strong> appropriateness of their<br />
original quick count goals before finalizing data use decisions. <strong>The</strong> purpose of<br />
a quick count can impact how groups use results. Goals include:<br />
• deterring fraud;<br />
• detecting fraud;<br />
• offering a timely forecast of results;<br />
• instilling confidence in the electoral process;<br />
• reporting on the quality of the electoral process;<br />
• encouraging citizen participation;<br />
• extending organizational reach <strong>and</strong> skills building; <strong>and</strong><br />
• setting the stage for future activities.