The Quick Count and Election Observation

CHAPTER SEVEN: COLLECTING AND ANALYZING QUICK COUNT DATA
120 Most observer groups now routinely work with sufficiently large random samples
that they are unlikely to face the problem of elections that are statistically
“too close to call.” Even under these unlikely circumstances, of course, domestic
observer groups have a vital role to play. In these situations, they should
promote and monitor a comprehensive and completely transparent vote count
by election authorities, as well as the impartial and expedited resolution of
any electoral complaints.
Moreover, analysis of the quality of voting and counting processes (together
with analysis of the broader electoral environment) can help determine whether
official results are to be accepted as credible.
Information is the lifeblood of quick counts, and the goal of
this chapter has been to outline what are the most important
aspects of information management to ensure a successful
quick count. There are a number of points to re-emphasize:
1) Election day information flows are uneven. The volume of election
day information flows is uneven, and the origin of incoming information
is uneven. Communications systems have to be designed to
accommodate these variations.
2) The design of the communications system has to begin with a careful
examination of the adequacy of the available communications infrastructure.
Because quick count samples will identify data points that
are in remote locations with weak or no communications infrastructure,
special attention has to be given to developing a strategy for
delivering data from remote areas to data collection centers.
3) Problems will inevitably develop in the data collection process as in
all complex, time-sensitive operations. Data flows can be interrupted,
cellular phone systems can be overloaded, electrical power can
be cut, viruses can affect computers—but anticipating possible difficulties
and preparing in advance to manage them will allow for a
successful quick count.
4) The development of a core database has become an important tool
for increasing the efficiency of information management. That tool is
useful not only for larger organizational planning but also for election
day data recovery and analysis.
5) The analysis of election day quick count data has to be staged through
several sequential steps that include: monitoring data recovery and
sample clearance; tracking data distributions between different strata;
identifying points of data stabilization; conducting data checks
against specific criteria to establish the reliability of vote distribution
results; recalculating the margins of error of the effective sample; and
weighting the recovered data against the designed sample.