The Quick Count and Election Observation

THE QUICK COUNT AND ELECTION OBSERVATION
60%
50%
Party B
FIGURE 7-4:
STABILIZATION OF VOTES REPORTED
IN SAMPLE
117
Votes Reported in Sample
40%
30%
20%
10%
Party A
0%
T1
T2 T3 T4 T5
T6 T7 T8 T9
# of Takes
Projecting the Election Result
On election day, domestic observation organizations come under intense pressure
to “call the election,” to release quick count results on the vote projection
as early as possible. It is sometimes argued that such an early projection is
important because it will help to contribute to political stability. These pressures
may come from the media who are anxious to break the news and to
meet their deadlines. Pressure may come from organizations that fund the
observation effort and which feel entitled to get the very earliest results first.
Pressure may also come from within the ranks of the election observation
group, perhaps from those who want to see the group be the first to release
results or from those who worry that to release the data late will make the
observation efforts irrelevant. Typically, pressure to release projections of electoral
results as soon as possible comes from all of these sources.
The analyst’s priority, however, must be a commitment to ensure that any data
that are released are only released after it has been clearly established that the
data are accurate and reliable. In fact, it is clearly a very serious mistake to
release data that have not been thoroughly checked. The consequences of
releasing unreliable, or worse yet incorrect, data can be disastrous. The release
of very early, or preliminary data, can be both misleading and counterproductive,
and the effect may be to undermine the legitimacy of the quick count
and the entire observation effort. There are very strong reasons, then, to exercise
caution. All of the results should be re-checked even after the data have
apparently reached the point of stability.
The analyst’s priority
must be a commitment
to ensure that any data
that are released are
only released after it
has been clearly established
that the data are
accurate and reliable.
The following checks on the data are now standard, and they help to increase
confidence in the election observation findings:
• Voter turnout rate—Recall from Chapter Five that the efficacy of the sample
depends partly on assumptions about levels of voter turnout. Previous
elections provide a record of what the typical voter turnout rates for the