The Quick Count and Election Observation
The Quick Count and Election Observation
The Quick Count and Election Observation
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THE QUICK COUNT AND ELECTION OBSERVATION<br />
elections can also provide useful benchmark data for interpreting whether the<br />
number of challenged ballots or other anomalies were “unusually high.” Most<br />
election commissions keep records of prior elections, <strong>and</strong> those records should<br />
be publicly available.<br />
93<br />
Pre-election preparation also involves gathering data from international organizations<br />
that conduct election observations. <strong>The</strong>se organizations may have<br />
participated in observer missions, or they may have assisted domestic nongovernmental<br />
organizations conducting observations in the country. Some of<br />
these organizations keep records of previous involvement, <strong>and</strong> their archived<br />
files on other elections can provide important detailed contextual election data.<br />
It is essential that<br />
analysts develop in<br />
advance a clear plan.<br />
A Clear Plan<br />
It is essential that analysts develop in advance a clear plan addressing: Exactly<br />
how will they work with the observer data when they start to arrive on election<br />
day? Which parts of the dataset will be examined first? In what order will<br />
the data be analyzed? Do the analysts know exactly how to proceed if findings<br />
indicate that there may have been some problems? Which are the problems<br />
that seem most likely to arise on election day? How will they be analyzed?<br />
<strong>The</strong>se questions must not be left until election day, <strong>and</strong> they should be discussed<br />
in advance with those responsible for presenting the results to the<br />
public. <strong>The</strong> point is to eliminate as many “surprises” as possible.<br />
Using Graphics<br />
Next, analysts must plan how they will use graphics. Graphic presentations of<br />
data make observation results more accessible to the media <strong>and</strong> to the public.<br />
In many cases newspapers will simply print the graphic results produced<br />
by observer groups. <strong>The</strong> production of user friendly graphics solves two problems.<br />
It saves newspapers the trouble of producing their own graphics, <strong>and</strong> it<br />
reduces the chances that errors will be made in the presentation of findings.<br />
In many cases newspapers<br />
will simply<br />
print the graphic<br />
results produced by<br />
observer groups.<br />
<strong>The</strong> production of graphics is time consuming, <strong>and</strong> it is remarkable just how<br />
much disagreement can arise over the matter of what is the best way to present<br />
information. Just as the leadership of the organization should prepare in<br />
advance drafts of what an election day statement of results might look like, so<br />
too should the analysis team prepare ahead of time the software “shell” for<br />
the presentation of graphics. That “shell” should reflect choices about format,<br />
addressing issues, like: Will the data on key questions be illustrated with bar<br />
charts? Will they be presented using pie-charts? Or, will they be numeric tables?<br />
Will the charts include the organization’s logo? How will each of the graphs<br />
or tables be labelled?<br />
<strong>The</strong>se questions may seem trivial, but it is essential to eliminate in advance as<br />
many things as possible that may cause election-day disagreements <strong>and</strong> lost<br />
time. Such disagreements have delayed press conferences, <strong>and</strong> they have led