The Quick Count and Election Observation

CHAPTER SIX: THE QUALITATIVE COMPONENT OF THE QUICK COUNT
92 • Third, this version of the question also supplies us with an important
additional piece of information; it tells us which polling stations did not
open at all.
There is a caveat to the above example: The concern about late opening of
polling stations is not simply a guage of administrative organization. It is also
an indicator of whether prospective voters had a genuine opportunity to vote.
Late openings do not measure whether anyone was disenfranchised as a consequence
of the problem. An observer outside the polling station determining
how many people left lines due to long waits might better measure that. Even
that indicator does not address whether those persons returned later. These
are the types of issues to discuss when designing an observation and its forms.
ANALYZING QUALITATIVE DATA
Analyzing data within very short time constraints is no easy task. Data analysts
usually have to begin to prepare for the job well in advance of election day by:
• gathering contextual information;
• developing a clear election-day plan;
• creating a software “shell” for the presentation of graphics; and
• establishing a working protocol for management of results produced by
the analysis team.
Typically, the most useful
contextual data to
gather are those from
previous elections
(when available).
Pre-Election Preparation
During the run-up to elections, analysts gather different kinds of contextual
information that will help them to interpret the qualitative data.
Contextual Data
Typically, the most useful contextual data to gather are those from previous
elections (when available), especially from the election immediately preceding
the present observation. For example, consider the case of voter turnout.
Voter turnout indicates levels of citizen participation on election day and citizen
participation is an important measure of the health of an election process.
But how do you know if voter turnout is “high” or “unusually low?” At least
two kinds of benchmarks are helpful for making these kinds of evaluations.
The most obvious benchmark comes from documentation of the recent electoral
history of the country. Was voter turnout in the present election “unusually
low” when compared with levels of voter turnout in the previous election, or
with other national elections in the recent past? International benchmark comparisons
might also be helpful, but these comparisons have to be made
cautiously because electoral rules have significant effects on levels of voter
turnout. Voter turnout is typically systematically higher in countries using proportional
representation than in majoritarian electoral systems. Any international
comparisons have to take such factors as electoral rules into account. Prior