A hundred-year balance Annual Report 2010 - Uzin Utz AG

Forecast Report
Future economic conditions
Following the German record year of 2010, growth will
slow down in the year 2011. Experts forecast a GDP growth
of 2.1% to 2.4%. These forecasts are also subject to a certain
risk, due to such factors as the Euro crisis. The World
Bank anticipates an increase of 3.3% for the global economy
in the current year. Emerging and developing countries
continue to be largely responsible for this growth.
» In the opinion of Dipl.-Ing. Herbert Bodner, President
of the Hauptverband der Deutschen Bauindustrie (National
Association of the German Construction Industry),
the German construction industry will again be unable
to keep pace with the growth in the overall economy
this year. This is mainly due to the empty coffers of local
authorities, for which reason a further decline in turnover
must be anticipated in public-sector construction.
For the German construction industry as a whole however,
Bodner forecasts that turnover will stabilise at the
previous year’s level. Experts are also more encouraging
in their forecasts for the year 2012. It could be interpreted
from the assumptions made prior to the BAU 2011
exhibition that the building industry will return to strong
growth and catch up with the economy as a whole.
» Between the end of the year 2010 and the time of
compilation of this report, growth of around 10% was
identified in terms of sales in comparison to the same
period of last year. Although the construction sector has
not yet recovered fully, we are confident that because
of our technical and geographical diversification, we will
continue to achieve very satisfactory results over the coming
years. With our firm foundation, our positioning in
the market and our special closeness to the customer, we
are convinced that we will be able in future to adapt to
current challenges. There are no internal factors known
which might bring into question any conclusions regarding
the currently reported or future situation.
» We will describe below the developments in the regions
most important for the Uzin Utz Group. We will
examine in particular the development in the regions of
western Europe and southern/eastern Europe:
» The economic situation in western Europe falls into
two camps. While countries such as Spain and Portugal
are still having to struggle with the crisis, countries such
as Switzerland, France and the Netherlands are again reporting
better figures. A general upward trend can also
be identified for the current year, although in weakened
form.
» In France for example, a real increase in GDP of 1.4%
is forecast for 2011. Good opportunities in the construction
sector are seen particularly in the extension and
renovation of residential and commercial property and
in craftsmanship construction work.
» The Dutch economy is also on the upturn, and expects
GDP growth of 2% for the current year. It is however
uncertain whether this will benefit the construction
industry to the same extent. Savings measures are now
taking the place of the economic support programme,
which could certainly slow down growth.
» In Great Britain too, it is clear that the building industry
cannot keep pace with the overall economic development.
While growth of up to 2.3% is expected, driven
by exports, no notable growth is anticipated in the
building industry for the year 2011. Only residential construction
is expected to pick up speed again in the next
two years.
» In Switzerland, the robust domestic economy is being
counteracted in the year 2011 by a deterioration in exports.
It is therefore expected that weakened economic
growth of 1.9% will be possible in the current year. Due
to the ending of the economic support packages, the
construction sector, and particularly residential construction,
could also show declining figures.
» While the economic crisis had severe effects on many
southern/eastern European countries in the year 2009,
some of them were able to rescue themselves from the
crisis in the year 2010, in some cases with strong growth
rates. This trend will also continue in the current year.
Countries falling into this category include in particular
the four large national economies of Poland, Turkey,
Russia and Kazakhstan.
» The Polish National economy harbours enormous
potential. In the year 2010, the country achieved GDP
growth of 3.5%. According to the Statistical Office of
the European Union, this growth should improve even
further in the current year to 3.9%. Construction and
installation services will grow in the next three to four
years by approx. 12% per year, supported by such major
events as the 2012 European Championship. Although
commercial and residential construction has not
yet been able to recover to this extent, great potential
is also seen here for the future.
» The Czech economy was also able to finish the year
2010 with GDP growth of 2.4%. A similar increase is
forecast for the current year. For the building industry,
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