Drug abuse in Pakistan - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

ANNEX III. TABLES SUPPLEMENTAL TO PREVALENCE CALCULATION
5. Prevalence estimates and numbers of addicts
(extrapolated)
M<strong>in</strong>imum and maximum likely numbers extrapolated to whole
country
The f<strong>in</strong>al section 5 extrapolates from the estimated
number of addicts estimated to be <strong>in</strong> each locale's cl<strong>in</strong>ic
catchment area to the overall figure for each of the prov<strong>in</strong>ces
and for <strong>Pakistan</strong> <strong>in</strong> total. This extrapolation is <strong>in</strong> two stages:
(i) from the locales <strong>in</strong> the study that have cl<strong>in</strong>ics listed for
male hero<strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>patient treatment to all locales used <strong>in</strong>
the study; (ii) from the locales used <strong>in</strong> the study to the
whole prov<strong>in</strong>ce, keep<strong>in</strong>g the dist<strong>in</strong>ction between the locale
for the pr<strong>in</strong>cipal city and the rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g locales <strong>in</strong> each
prov<strong>in</strong>ce.
M<strong>in</strong>imum likely and maximum likely estimates are given
<strong>in</strong> each <strong>in</strong>stance, to provide a plausible range of estimates.
Data structures presented
Ext. coverage (non-cl<strong>in</strong>ic locales)
Ext. coverage (prov<strong>in</strong>ce exc locales)
M<strong>in</strong>imium likely ...
(a) Target prevalence (<strong>in</strong> catchment)
(a) Number of addicts (cl<strong>in</strong>ic locales)
(a) Likely m<strong>in</strong>imum number of hero<strong>in</strong> addicts
Maximium likely ...
(c) Target prevalence (<strong>in</strong> catchment)
(c) Number of addicts (cl<strong>in</strong>ic locales)
(c) Likely maximum number of hero<strong>in</strong> addicts
2. Tables show<strong>in</strong>g prevalence estimation data by prov<strong>in</strong>ce
Tables correspond to tables 25 to 29 <strong>in</strong> chapter 8, giv<strong>in</strong>g data outside the pr<strong>in</strong>cipal cities of the four cities study for
each prov<strong>in</strong>ce.
Table A.III.1.
Basic data provided by the census, us<strong>in</strong>g figures for each of the locales
<strong>in</strong> the study
Locale data (exc four cities) summed for each prov<strong>in</strong>ce
Total of
other locales S<strong>in</strong>dh Punjab NWFP FATA Balochistan
(i) Locale Demographic Profiles
Households 3 305 785 625 540 2 112 993 470 016 97 236 0
Male 12 104 131 1 947 639 7 484 506 2 062 258 454 492 155 236
Female 11 228 122 1 770 872 6 979 950 1 924 769 411 487 141 044
Total 23 332 253 3 718 511 14 464 456 3 987 027 865 979 296 280
Urban males 4 522 729 997 809 3 191 978 268 185 28 587 36 170
1998 population total 11 389 758 2 612 874 7 334 489 994 206 448 189 0
Table A.III.2.
Reduced overall target population to males <strong>in</strong> the age band of 15 to 45 years
Locale data (exc four cities) summed for each prov<strong>in</strong>ce
Total of
other locales S<strong>in</strong>dh Punjab NWFP FATA Balochistan
(ii) Locale Target Age-Band:
males aged 15-45 (<strong>in</strong> millions
of population)
Assumed % of males <strong>in</strong> target 42.20% 42.20% 42.20% 42.20% 42.20% 42.20%
Number of males <strong>in</strong> target population 5.108 0.822 3.158 0.870 0.192 0.066
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