Drug abuse in Pakistan - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

NATIONAL DRUG CONTOUR MAPPING
Table 29.
Extrapolated estimates of the numbers of addicts <strong>in</strong> the country as a whole
Total of the Karachi Lahore Peshawar Quetta Total of
Total of four city division district district district other
all locales locales (S<strong>in</strong>dh) (Punjab) (NWFP) (Balochistan) locales
(v) Prevalence estimates and numbers of addicts (extrapolated)
(a)
M<strong>in</strong>imium likely
M<strong>in</strong>imum likely target
population prevalence
rate (<strong>in</strong> cl<strong>in</strong>ics’
catchment area) 0.67% 1.35% 1.83% 0.23% 0.87% 5.14% 0.12%
Estimated m<strong>in</strong>imum
number of addicts
(<strong>in</strong> locales with
identified cl<strong>in</strong>ics) 62 995 56 917 40 597 3 188 3 911 9 221 6 078
Estimated m<strong>in</strong>imum
number of hero<strong>in</strong>
addicts <strong>in</strong> total
(see text) 97 637 56 917 40 597 3 188 3 911 9 221 40 721
(b) Maximium likely
Maximum likely target
population prevalence
rate (<strong>in</strong> cl<strong>in</strong>ics’
catchment area) 2.03% 3.59% 4.57% 2.19% 2.34% 5.43% 0.73%
Estimated m<strong>in</strong>imum
number of addicts
(<strong>in</strong> locales with
identified cl<strong>in</strong>ics) 189 319 151 868 101 493 30 110 10 522 9 743 37 451
Estimated maximum
number of hero<strong>in</strong>
addicts <strong>in</strong> total
(see text) 398 302 151 868 101 493 30 110 10 522 9 743 246 434
In this regard the follow<strong>in</strong>g po<strong>in</strong>ts are to be noted.
There are some less populous geographic areas that
have been excluded from the prevalence estimates
for a number of technical reasons <strong>in</strong> these provisional
figures. For example Balochistan prov<strong>in</strong>ce
outside the Quetta district proved too difficult to
estimate by these prelim<strong>in</strong>ary methods.
Prevalence rates quoted <strong>in</strong> the provisional figures
are for males aged <strong>in</strong> the target age-band of 15 to
45 years of age, which accord<strong>in</strong>g to this research and
to previous government figures constitutes the vast
majority of the hero<strong>in</strong>-users <strong>in</strong> the population.
The range of estimates from this study suggests as
a possible upper limit up to 500,000 hero<strong>in</strong> users
and other drug <strong>in</strong>jectors, <strong>in</strong> round figures, amongst
males <strong>in</strong> the 15 to 45 year old age band. Whilst
this figure is considerably lower than previous
national estimates, there are good reasons for the
difference.
The overall prevalence <strong>in</strong> this study is for hard-core
hero<strong>in</strong> users and drug <strong>in</strong>jectors only, with no <strong>in</strong>clusion
of alcohol or charas <strong>abuse</strong>rs. The reasons for
advisability of exclud<strong>in</strong>g these other <strong>abuse</strong>rs from
this study are detailed <strong>in</strong> the preced<strong>in</strong>g sections. In
previous figures reported for <strong>Pakistan</strong> the def<strong>in</strong>itions
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