Drug abuse in Pakistan - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

DRUG ABUSE IN PAKISTAN
Table 28.
Treatment multipliers derived from key <strong>in</strong>formant and addict <strong>in</strong>terview data
Total of the Karachi Lahore Peshawar Quetta Total of
Total of four city division district district district other
all locales locales (S<strong>in</strong>dh) (Punjab) (NWFP) (Balochistan) locales
(iv) Key <strong>in</strong>formant and <strong>in</strong>terview treatment multipliers
Range of estimated proportion of addicts who received treatment <strong>in</strong> year (see text)
(a) Maximum likely
proportion who
received treatment 0.2633 0.3000 0.1000 0.4722 0.2567 0.0224 0.2567
(b) Median likely
proportion who
received treatment 0.1225 0.1000 0.0800 0.2056 0.1693 0.0217 0.1464
(c) M<strong>in</strong>imum likely
proportion who
received treatment 0.0500 0.0400 0.0400 0.0500 0.0954 0.0212 0.0600
Range of estimated derived multiplier, represent<strong>in</strong>g addicts not receiv<strong>in</strong>g treatment <strong>in</strong> year
(a) M<strong>in</strong>imum multiplier
(applies to cl<strong>in</strong>ics’
catchment area) 3.80 3.33 10.00 2.12 3.90 44.64 3.90
(b) Median multiplier
(applies to cl<strong>in</strong>ics’
catchment area) 8.16 10.00 12.50 4.86 5.91 46.08 6.83
(c) Maximum multiplier
(applies to cl<strong>in</strong>ics’
catchment area) 20.00 25.00 25.00 20.00 10.48 47.17 16.67
Range of estimated number of addicts <strong>in</strong> population (see text)
Correction factor for addicts
out-of-catchment (see text) 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90
(a) Likely estimated
m<strong>in</strong>imum number of
addicts <strong>in</strong> catchment 62 995 56 917 40 597 3 188 3 911 9 221 6 078
(b) Likely estimated
median number of
addicts <strong>in</strong> catchment 89 157 73 517 50 747 7 322 5 929 9 518 15 640
(c) Likely estimated
maximum number of
addicts <strong>in</strong> catchment 189 319 151 868 101 493 30 110 10 522 9 743 37 451
Interpretation of the
<strong>in</strong>itial estimates and their
extrapolations
Calculation sheets are <strong>in</strong>cluded that show the estimation
procedure step-by-step as described above.
They produce a range of possible estimates of prevalence
for the country as a whole, broken down by
the cities <strong>in</strong> the four cities study and by prov<strong>in</strong>ce.
Supplementary calculation sheets show <strong>in</strong>formation
for each locale that is used to derive the summary
calculation sheets.
Various technical details are explicated <strong>in</strong> a later
document, but these calculations provide a first provisional
estimate of prevalence of hero<strong>in</strong> addiction,
by mak<strong>in</strong>g a variety of assumptions. The ma<strong>in</strong> features
of the results are summarised below, with some
cautions and guidel<strong>in</strong>es on their <strong>in</strong>terpretation.
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