Drug abuse in Pakistan - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

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Background
The surveys of drug use <strong>in</strong> <strong>Pakistan</strong> preced<strong>in</strong>g the present assessment (1993, 1986) used the
opportunity to estimate a growth rate for the prevalence of drug use, with the prevalence rate
obta<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> the immediately previous survey be<strong>in</strong>g used as the basis for the next survey’s estimates.
The base figures for this procedure are those obta<strong>in</strong>ed from the 1982 drug use survey.
Over time the estimates detailed <strong>in</strong> this way are likely to deviate away from the true position,
partly because any discrepancies that may have occurred <strong>in</strong> the base figures will be magnified
and partly also because the growth rates themselves are established through key <strong>in</strong>formant
data that can only give a rough idea of the growth that may actually be tak<strong>in</strong>g place. In order
not to be held hostage to previous methods and past estimates, the present survey therefore
deliberately seeks to start anew rather than cont<strong>in</strong>ue to build on the exist<strong>in</strong>g figures for drug
use prevalence.
The 1982 survey base figures were essentially obta<strong>in</strong>ed by a comb<strong>in</strong>ation of area sampl<strong>in</strong>g to
establish geographical units, and a case-f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g technique with<strong>in</strong> these units that was based
on key <strong>in</strong>formant <strong>in</strong>formation. S<strong>in</strong>ce that time, <strong>in</strong>ternational research <strong>in</strong> the area has seen the
development of other techniques beyond simple case-f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g for access<strong>in</strong>g “hidden” populations
that are hard to contact. These newer methods are <strong>in</strong>tended to overcome a recognizable
bias <strong>in</strong> case-f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g techniques that tends to give too low a prevalence rate—although the
performance of this technique when used with key <strong>in</strong>formant identification procedures has not
been documented. The <strong>in</strong>direct estimation techniques <strong>in</strong> general centre on types of estimation
that <strong>in</strong> part use other exist<strong>in</strong>g data sources as secondary <strong>in</strong>formation; this secondary <strong>in</strong>formation
is used <strong>in</strong> comb<strong>in</strong>ation with new survey data to give a more reliable picture. These
methods are often termed benchmark/multiplier techniques <strong>in</strong> this context, and it is one of
these techniques that is implemented <strong>in</strong> the <strong>Pakistan</strong> 2000 survey.
The method of benchmark/multiplier estimation that is used therefore attempts a fresh estimate
of drug use prevalence <strong>in</strong> order not to compound further any possible drift that has
occurred <strong>in</strong> the latest available estimates. It further tries to move beyond the case-f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g
methods to attempt to make use of other data sources that are available.
<strong>Pakistan</strong> <strong>in</strong> context
In 1998, the population of <strong>Pakistan</strong> was estimated to be 135 million <strong>in</strong>habitants, rang<strong>in</strong>g from
densely populated urban districts to sparsely populated mounta<strong>in</strong> villages. The territory of
<strong>Pakistan</strong> comprises the prov<strong>in</strong>ces of North West Frontier, Balochistan, S<strong>in</strong>dh and the Punjab
together with the Federally Adm<strong>in</strong>istered Tribal Areas (FATAs) and the Federal Capital Area of
Islamabad. The ma<strong>in</strong> ethnic group<strong>in</strong>gs are the Punjabis, S<strong>in</strong>dhis, Balochis and Pathans plus a
number of smaller tribes <strong>in</strong> the remote northern areas. The Mohajirs, or refugees from India
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