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Table 9: Number of children needed to achieve 50 per cent coverage of children at risk of drowning<br />

5-17<br />

population<br />

50% SS coverage<br />

over 5 years<br />

No. of training deaths per year @<br />

1:100,000 1:500,000 1:1,000,000<br />

Bangladesh 41,231,000 4,123,100/year 41 8 4<br />

Cambodia 4,068,000 406,800/year 4 1 -<br />

China 240,567,000 24,057,000/year 240 48 24<br />

Thailand 12,964,000 1,296,400/year 12 2 1<br />

Viet Nam 18,795,000 1,879,500/year 18 4 2<br />

Total 317,625,000 31,762,500/year 317 63 31<br />

Source: Population numbers for children aged 5-17 from The State of the World’s <strong>Child</strong>ren 2012, UNICEF, February 2012, p.<br />

108, table 6. Note: SS refers to the SwimSafe programme.<br />

It is clear that at high training volumes, even very low adverse event rates result in substantial numbers<br />

of children fatally injured. This mandates a process of evidence-based risk estimation followed by riskreduction<br />

approaches to all aspects of swim teaching. The operational experience gained in SwimSafe<br />

may provide such evidence for risk management. 54<br />

3. Are the rescue skills taught effective and are they safe when used?<br />

The safety and effectiveness of the rescue skills provided to the children was a key concern. Evidence<br />

from drowning investigations in the surveys showed that traditional methods for rescue were<br />

potentially harmful for the rescuer and that traditional methods of resuscitation were ineffective and<br />

potentially harmful for the person resuscitated. The SwimSafe curriculum incorporates training in skills<br />

necessary for safe rescue and also teaches children not to use harmful resuscitation practices.<br />

A separate cohort study, the Risk and Rescue Study, has been underway. In July 2010 and April 2011,<br />

monitoring cohorts made up of SwimSafe graduates of varying ages and both sexes were examined for<br />

use of the rescue skills taught in the programme. They were asked for details of rescue activities done<br />

after they graduated. For the July 2010 cohort, children taught safe rescue techniques reported having<br />

used them at high rates. The rates were 6 per cent of children having engaged in a rescue since<br />

graduation from SwimSafe, an average length of 1.7 years. This rate is substantially higher than children<br />

graduating from swimming and water safety courses in HICs. 55 The majority of the rescues were inwater<br />

rescues because the graduate was already in the water with the person in distress when the<br />

rescue was conducted. Based on the evidence from this cohort, it appears that children in an LMIC who<br />

are trained in rescue make use of the skills at significant rates and are able to conduct successful<br />

rescues. 56<br />

4. Does the completion of SwimSafe training lead to increased risk-taking in the water?<br />

The protection of the programme from moral hazard was a key issue. In terms of drowning prevention,<br />

moral hazard occurs if children who have learned survival swimming think they are completely<br />

protected from drowning and consequently engage in high-risk behaviours that actually increase their<br />

54 Rahman, A et al. ‘SwimSafe teaching tools: guidance for survival swimming to children in low and middle income countries’. In: Scarr et al (eds)<br />

World Conference on <strong>Drowning</strong> Prevention, Danang, Vietnam, 2011. International Life Saving Federation, Leuven, p. 76 accessed at:<br />

www.worldconferenceondrowningprevention2011.org.<br />

55 Personal communication, <strong>Drowning</strong> Commissioner, International Lifesaving Federation.<br />

56 Rahman, A. et al. ‘Rescue Rates following SwimSafe Training’. In: Scarr et al (eds) World Conference on <strong>Drowning</strong> Prevention, Danang, Vietnam,<br />

2011. International Life Saving Federation, Leuven, p. 75 accessed at: www.worldconferenceondrowningprevention2011.org.<br />

61

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