Child Drowning

can be seen in the changes that resulted in the 2008 GBD estimates when compared to the 2004
estimates. Table 3 compares the GBD 2004 and GBD 2008 estimates for fatal drowning in children 0-14
years old in LMIC countries in the Asian region.
Table 3: Changes in Global Burden of Disease fatal drowning estimates between 2004 and 2008,
children 0-14 years old in LMICs in Asia 15
GBD 2004 GBD 2008 GBD 2004-2008 change
Country Number Rate Number Rate Number % change Rate % change
Afghanistan 1,469 12.96 2,171 17.23 +701 +47.7 +4.27 +32.9
Bangladesh 3,828 7.14 2,573 5.02 -1,255 -32.8 -2.12 -29.7
Bhutan 10 4.87 14 6.67 +4 +37.6 +1.80 +37.1
Cambodia 1,074 20.37 796 16.01 -279 -25.93 -4.36 -21.4
China 50,339 17.28 27,289 9.90 -23,050 -45.8 -7.38 -42.7
India 21,785 5.84 32,166 8.58 +10,38 +47.7 +2.75 +47.0
Indonesia 3,050 4.76 1,628 2.62 -1,4221
-46.6 -2.14 -45.0
Malaysia 336 4.19 212 2.62 -124 -36.8 -1.57 -37.4
Maldives 6 5.82 3 3.60 -3 -46.5 -2.22 -38.1
Nepal 833 7.96 541 5.05 -292 -35.1 -2.91 -36.6
Pakistan 3,380 5.72 3,423 5.19 +43 +1.3 -0.53 -9.3
Papua New 231 9.52 201 7.65 -29 -12.7 -1.87 -19.7
Guinea
Philippines 2,027 6.70 1,640 5.30 -387 -19.1 -1.41 -21.0
Sri Lanka 72 1.52 6 0.12 -66 -91.7 -1.40 -92.0
Thailand 1,322 9.61 1,604 10.84 +281 +21.3 +1.23 +12.8
Timor-Leste 30 6.49 24 4.92 -6 -18.9 -1.57 -24.2
Viet Nam 1,311 5.14 2,537 10.98 +1,226 +93.5 +5.84 +113.5
The Asian region contains the majority of children in the world. Five of the countries above have almost
a billion children in total. 16 Due to the change in population in these countries over the four-year period
2004 to 2008, the numbers of fatal drowning would be expected to change. However, lacking any
change in drowning risk factors, drowning rates would be expected to remain the same. In these five
countries, drowning rates changed between -45 per cent and +47 per cent, accounting for a difference
of over 36,000 children drowning in the two estimates in the same countries. Rates changed an average
of 34.7 per cent in the five countries. Across the 17 Asian LMICs listed, the range of change in rates
exceeded 200 per cent (Viet Nam increased 113.5% and Sri Lanka decreased 92 per cent).
The differences are not limited to the Asian region. Research conducted by the International Life Saving
Federation (ILS) shows large differences between the national reported figure in the GBD process and
that reported by many of its members in HICs. Some ILS members in HICs produce comprehensive
national drowning reports that use the globally accepted drowning definition, and collect and review
15 These Global Burden of Disease (GBD) figures are an underestimate of all drowning deaths, since they exclude drowning due to
cataclysms (floods), water and other transport accidents, assaults and suicide.
16 India 447,309,000; China 322,163,000; Indonesia 77,787,000; Pakistan 73,227,000; Bangladesh 55,938,000 totaling
976,424,000 children under 18 in 2010 according to The State of the World’s Children 2012, UNICEF New York, February 2012,
table 6, pp. 108-111.
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