Leapfrogging Possibilities For Sustainable Consumption and ...

The Reference scenario assumes continuation of past trends in energy use in Africa's
agriculture with an average growth rate of about 2% per annum. The scenario, therefore,
depicts the current minimal utilisation of energy in the agricultural sector which results in
relatively stagnant agricultural growth rates, modest increments in yields and thus
continued food imports.
The Moderate Improvement scenario depicts a situation of substantial increases in
agricultural energy use resulting in moderate growth rates, but lower than the population
growth rate. Africa's agricultural growth is estimated at about 3% per year.
The Accelerated Growth scenario reflects agricultural systems that are highly
mechanised. The energy intensive nature of the agriculture results in agricultural growth
rates of about 4% per year, which are above the population growth rates. It appears from
the analysis that Africa will need to double energy use in the agricultural sector in order
to achieve self sufficiency in food production. This means that the rate of growth of food
production should be equal or more than population growth rate.
Table 2: Projected energy requirements for agriculture in Africa (TJ) 10
Sector
1990 2010
Reference Moderate
Improvement
Accelerated
Growth
Agriculture 558 053 829 237 1 007 906 1 222 763
Ag-Transport 407 327 417 215 482 459 605 266
Ag-Industry 782 628 1 714 834 2 076 545 2 509 994
Total 1 748 008 2 961 286 3 566 910 4 338 023
2.3.1.3 Urbanization
Urbanization is a challenge from the perspective of the construction of long-lasting
structures of buildings and associated infrastructures.
A rapid expansion of cities together with an ever-increasing migration from rural to urban
centres is being witnessed in many countries in Africa.
Other issues of concern with regard to urbanization are insecurity, unemployment,
insufficient or non-existent energy and water supply, and severe wastewater and solid
waste problems. Due to the missing of comprehensive planning that considers housing
and mobility issues at the same time, some parts of the newly developed cities are
difficult to access. Distances between residence and working places as well as distances
between residence and shopping areas are getting longer and longer. Many African cities
are witnessing the presence of many unemployed people and homeless people including
children.
Over the last four decades Africa has witnessed high rate of urbanization accompanied by
low level of economic performance. Over the 1970-95 period, the average African
country's urban population grew by 5.2% per annum while its GDP declined by 0.66%
per year. Today, up to two thirds of African urban dwellers live in informal settlements
with inadequate transport, water, sanitation, electricity, and health services
By the year 2050, 61 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa's population will live in cities 11 . This
rapid urbanization is evident in large cities of Africa as depicted in Figure 5.
10 FAO(1995)
13