Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...

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. of trade in services performance, absolute export capacity and commitments made in the WTO GATS Agreement: ‣ Travel services (High potential) ‣ Computer and information services (High potential) ‣ Distribution services (High potential) ‣ Other commercial and business services (High potential) ‣ Insurance services (Medium potential) ‣ Transport services (Medium potential) ‣ Financial services (Low potential) ‣ Construction services (Low potential) Finally the study seeks to identify opportunities for investment in the BSEC region and does so by first identifying bottlenecks to investment in the policy environment in order to identify the countries with the highest investment potential. The study also analyses the level of FDI inflows, the FDI inward stock and foreign affiliates activities. It then selects sectors already identified previously as having a high intra-regional trade potential for the manufacturing sector. Sectors have been further identified when countries have made commitments in specific sectors so as to not limit market access or national treatment with regard to establishing a foreign commercial presence in their country. Thus the following sectors have been identified as having a high investment potential: ‣ Manufacturing Sector: Textiles and clothing, Food and beverages, Metal products and Wood products ‣ Services Sector: Travel services, distribution services, communication services, environmental services, educational services, health services, recreational, cultural and personal services, and other commercial services. Nonetheless, Turkey, Greece and Romania have a certain amount of limitations to establishing a foreign presence in their territory in subsectors of these services. In sum, this study has highlighted that a number of significant opportunities exist for both trade in services and trade in goods, as well as investment. Improving information and bringing importers and exporters together, as well as informing potential investors of these opportunities would be important channels to promote intra-regional trade and investment flows. 76/135
References Baker, P. (2002) Increasing intra-regional trade in selected Central Asian Republics, Working Document, ITC UNCTAD/WTO, Geneva: May Baker, P., Mimouni, M., Pasteels, J-M. & Von Kirchbach, F. (2002) Analytical Tools for Increasing the Participation of Developing Countries in the Multilateral Trading System in the context of the Doha Development Agenda, in Aussenwirtschaft, University of St Gallen: Switzerland BSEC Organisation, (2007), Economic Agenda for the future towards a more consolidated, effective and viable partnership BSEC Organisation, (2007), Transport Action Plan for the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation BSEC Organisation, (2007), The Newsletter of Black Sea Economic Cooperation with the supervision of BSEC Permanent International Secretariat, January 2007 BSTDB, (2007), Black Sea Trade Finance Strategy 2007, Black Sea Trade and Development Bank Cohen, A. (2006), U.S. Interests in central Asia, The Russian and Eurasian Studies, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis International Studies Center Cohen, A. and Conway I. (2006), U.S. Strategy in the Black Sea Region, The Russian and Eurasian Studies, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis International Studies Center Darbinian, A. and Dr Lalayan, S. (2001), Economic Development Perspectives : current issues in Armenia, International Center for Human Development ICHD publication – July 2001 Dikkaya M. and Orhan M., (2004), Economies of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) Countries and their Bilateral Trade, Journal of Economic and Social Research 6(2), 63-86 77/135
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Black Sea Economic Cooperation: Stu
Page 4 and 5:
. Table of Contents Abbreviations .
Page 6 and 7:
. Table 15d. Greece’s Commitments
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. Abbreviations BSEC EBRD EU EUROST
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. econometric model, referred to as
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. In this regard, travel services h
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. stock and foreign affiliates acti
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Current account balance (% of GDP)
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% of GDP . The dynamism of the priv
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. I.2. Background to Trade and Inve
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. II. Trade Potential and Opportuni
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. As mentioned earlier, the major e
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Imports Perspective . There are cer
Page 28 and 29: . II.1.3 Intra-industry trade betwe
Page 30 and 31: j j . x is the value of total expo
Page 32 and 33: . Table 10 provides a summary of th
Page 34 and 35: . Table 11. Twenty five products wi
Page 36 and 37: . Wood and wood products, in parti
Page 38 and 39: . Metal products, in particular HS
Page 40 and 41: Maximum MFN in Region (%) . make cr
Page 42 and 43: . II.4. Services With the exception
Page 44 and 45: . Table 13. Performance of trade in
Page 46 and 47: . Table 14a. Indicative Service Exp
Page 48 and 49: . Table 14e. Indicative Service Exp
Page 50 and 51: . Table 14i. Indicative Service Exp
Page 52 and 53: . divided by each mode of supply, f
Page 54 and 55: . Table 15b. Armenia’s Commitment
Page 56 and 57: . Table 15d. Greece’s Commitments
Page 58 and 59: . Table 15f. Turkey’s Commitments
Page 60 and 61: . Other commercial services (which
Page 62 and 63: . Table 16 Foreign direct investmen
Page 64 and 65: . In terms of existence of a legal
Page 66 and 67: . III.3. Sectoral opportunities BSE
Page 68 and 69: . service sector (retail, business
Page 70 and 71: . Table 23b. FDI in Bulgaria (2005)
Page 72 and 73: . Table 23d. FDI in Romania (2005)
Page 74 and 75: . Table 23f. FDI in Turkey (2005) I
Page 76 and 77: . 74/135
Page 80 and 81: . Egger, P. (2002), An Econometric
Page 82 and 83: . World Bank (2005), Trade, Transp
Page 84 and 85: . Annex 1. Trade Indicators 82/135
Page 86 and 87: . Table A2. Major Import Partners f
Page 88 and 89: . Table A4. Major Import by Product
Page 90 and 91: Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Bulgaria
Page 92 and 93: . HS Description ALB ARM AZE BGR GE
Page 94 and 95: . Table A7 Trade intensity in BSEC
Page 96 and 97: . HS Description ALB ARM AZE BGR GE
Page 98 and 99: . country I and country j’s capit
Page 100 and 101: . Annex 2.3. Results of Gravity Equ
Page 102 and 103: . Georgia Sector / Exports to ALB A
Page 104 and 105: . Russia Sector / Exports to ALB AR
Page 106: . Annex 2.4. Results of Trade Flow
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Page 117: Annex 2.5. Results of Trade Flow An
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. Note: Excludes energy and tobacco
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