Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...

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. Table 13. Performance of trade in services in BSEC (2003-05) Description ALB ARM AZE BGR GEO GRE ROM RUS TUR UKR M X M X M X M X M X M X M X M X M X M X Transportation - + - - + - + + + - - - + - + + + + + - Travel + + - + + + - - - - - - + + + + - + + + Construction - - - - + + - - - + - + + + + + - - - + Insurance + + + + + + - + + - + + - - + + + + - + Financial + - - + + + + - + + - - + + + + - + + + Computer & information + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + Royalties and license fees - - + + - + + - - + - + + + + - + + + + Other business + + + + - + + + - - + - + + - + - - - + Personal, cultural & recreational + + - + - + - - + + - - - - + + - - + + Other + + + + + + - - + + - - - - + + - - + + Note: M denotes import performance vis-à-vis world import growth, while X denotes export performance vis-à-vis world export growth. + denotes a performance which outstrips world growth, while “–“ denotes a performance which is worse than world growth. Source: Calculation by the author based on statistics from ITC, WTO and IMF Using the same methodology employed for the trade flow analysis of goods, namely comparing the export of services for one country with the import of services of another country, one can compute an approximate indicative trade potential between two countries. A major limitation of this approach is that the level of aggregation of services is relatively high, leading to an overestimation bias. Moreover, services are far more differentiated than goods, and thus this methodology needs to be further corroborated with qualitative information in the respective countries. Finally, the statistics for trade in services are far less reliable than is the case for goods (see box 3). Box 3. Source of statistics on trade in services and data availability The data on Services used in our analysis are based on WTO, IMF, OECD and Eurostat data, at different levels of detail and aggregation. No data are available for Moldova and Serbia & Montenegro, while all the other BSEC countries reported data on trade flow and growth in all key sectors in Services for the last 5 years. Eurostat sources for 2005 for the sector “Other Services” corresponds to 2004 figures, and WTO sources for 2005 are not updated for Armenia and Georgia in three sectors (Transportation, Travel and Other commercial services). For these three sectors, 2004 estimates are used. The result for the BSEC region as a whole is that there is a major overlap of trade flows and that the current export capacity in services could be absorbed by BSEC member states which import those same services. The breakdown of services suggests that the highest intra- 42/135
egional trade potential lies in travel and transportation services which account for three quarters of all the potential (see Figure 7). Nevertheless, there exists potential in other smaller sectors, such as cultural and recreational services (US$1.5 billion), financial and insurance services (US$1 billion each) and computer services (US$1 billion). Figure 7 Indicative potential for trade in services in BSEC Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2005 statistics from ITC, WTO, IMF The breakdown of trade potential at the individual country level is provided in Tables 14a-14j. Most countries record the highest trade potential in travel and transportation, with the exception of Azerbaijan, Romania and Russia. Most countries do not have sufficiently large export potential to satisfy all the regional demand for service imports. For example, Albania exports US$16 million of financial services to the world, yet the BSEC region has a total demand of some US$1.8 billion from abroad which could theoretically be provided by the region. 43/135
Page 1: Black Sea Economic Cooperation: Stu
Page 4 and 5: . Table of Contents Abbreviations .
Page 6 and 7: . Table 15d. Greece’s Commitments
Page 8 and 9: . Abbreviations BSEC EBRD EU EUROST
Page 10 and 11: . econometric model, referred to as
Page 12 and 13: . In this regard, travel services h
Page 14 and 15: . stock and foreign affiliates acti
Page 16 and 17: Current account balance (% of GDP)
Page 18 and 19: % of GDP . The dynamism of the priv
Page 20 and 21: . I.2. Background to Trade and Inve
Page 22 and 23: . II. Trade Potential and Opportuni
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Page 26 and 27: Imports Perspective . There are cer
Page 28 and 29: . II.1.3 Intra-industry trade betwe
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Page 32 and 33: . Table 10 provides a summary of th
Page 34 and 35: . Table 11. Twenty five products wi
Page 36 and 37: . Wood and wood products, in parti
Page 38 and 39: . Metal products, in particular HS
Page 40 and 41: Maximum MFN in Region (%) . make cr
Page 42 and 43: . II.4. Services With the exception
Page 46 and 47: . Table 14a. Indicative Service Exp
Page 48 and 49: . Table 14e. Indicative Service Exp
Page 50 and 51: . Table 14i. Indicative Service Exp
Page 52 and 53: . divided by each mode of supply, f
Page 54 and 55: . Table 15b. Armenia’s Commitment
Page 56 and 57: . Table 15d. Greece’s Commitments
Page 58 and 59: . Table 15f. Turkey’s Commitments
Page 60 and 61: . Other commercial services (which
Page 62 and 63: . Table 16 Foreign direct investmen
Page 64 and 65: . In terms of existence of a legal
Page 66 and 67: . III.3. Sectoral opportunities BSE
Page 68 and 69: . service sector (retail, business
Page 70 and 71: . Table 23b. FDI in Bulgaria (2005)
Page 72 and 73: . Table 23d. FDI in Romania (2005)
Page 74 and 75: . Table 23f. FDI in Turkey (2005) I
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Page 78 and 79: . of trade in services performance,
Page 80 and 81: . Egger, P. (2002), An Econometric
Page 82 and 83: . World Bank (2005), Trade, Transp
Page 84 and 85: . Annex 1. Trade Indicators 82/135
Page 86 and 87: . Table A2. Major Import Partners f
Page 88 and 89: . Table A4. Major Import by Product
Page 90 and 91: Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Bulgaria
Page 92 and 93: . HS Description ALB ARM AZE BGR GE
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. Table A7 Trade intensity in BSEC
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. HS Description ALB ARM AZE BGR GE
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. country I and country j’s capit
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. Annex 2.3. Results of Gravity Equ
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. Georgia Sector / Exports to ALB A
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. Russia Sector / Exports to ALB AR
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. Annex 2.4. Results of Trade Flow
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Annex 2.5. Results of Trade Flow An
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. Note: Excludes energy and tobacco
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